NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	83		Excitement	4.2 [942]		MVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): +13.3%
Boston Celtics	103		Comeback	1.0 [1114]		LVP	Chucky Atkins (DET): -20.5%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cedric Ceballos	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	-0.01	11	59%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.01	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Billy Owens	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	8	39%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	60%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02
John Wallace	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	10	55%	0.04	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Mateen Cleaves	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	0.00	-0.03	5	29%	-0.03	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	0.00	0.00	21	43%	-0.04	4	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Jerome Williams	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.15	0.00	-0.03	8	37%	-0.00	6	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	-0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.25	-0.01	-0.05	14	7%	-0.15	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.13	0.00	0.00	19	75%	0.20	4	-0.07	6	100%	0.02
Tony Battie	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	7	71%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	0.00	0.05	5	80%	0.02	2	-0.03	10	100%	0.03
Jerome Moiso	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.11	0.00	-0.07	24	45%	0.00	2	-0.03	14	64%	-0.03
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Anderson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	0.00	0.01	9	36%	-0.07	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	1.6	29.1	20.3	29.5	2.5	30.5	140.7
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +19.2%

BOS +15.9%

DET -8.9%

BOS +21.8%

BOS +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	BOS	NBA	DET	BOS	NBA
this game	14.2	14.4	15.5	82.2	103.0	100.9
season	14.3	15.1		97.9	99.7
opponent	15.4	15.4		101.8	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	11.9	16.4	13.3	15.9	14.2
BOS	14.8	14.2	13.9	14.8	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Wallace	35	36	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-18	16	13.9	14.4	-0.47	14.7	14.3	0.40
Cedric Ceballos	42	39	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.04	-4	-16	12	14.2	14.3	-0.02	14.6	14.3	0.38
Mikki Moore	23	21	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.16	-10	-10	0	13.0	14.6	-1.67	13.3	14.7	-1.42
Michael Curry	17	17	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.00	-5	-15	10	11.9	14.7	-2.77	15.9	14.1	1.77
Billy Owens	34	33	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.03	-8	-12	4	14.6	14.1	0.56	13.8	14.7	-0.93
Mateen Cleaves	34	32	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.22	-15	-5	-10	11.0	15.9	-4.94	14.0	14.6	-0.65
Jud Buechler	35	34	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.16	-13	-7	-6	12.8	15.0	-2.17	15.1	14.1	0.98
Ben Wallace	60	61	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.03	-7	-13	6	15.9	11.8	4.11	14.1	14.9	-0.80
Eric Montross	30	31	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.04	-7	-13	6	12.7	14.9	-2.20	15.8	13.8	2.02
Chucky Atkins	67	68	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.13	-5	-15	10	15.9	11.0	4.94	14.6	14.0	0.65
Jerome Williams	57	55	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	-8	-4	14.5	13.9	0.64	14.3	14.6	-0.35
Jerry Stackhouse	71	73	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.02	-12	-8	-4	14.9	12.7	2.25	13.9	15.8	-1.87

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antoine Walker	86	86	0.51	-0.01	0.53	-0.19	24	-4	28	14.1	16.5	-2.43	14.3	14.1	0.21
Kenny Anderson	75	71	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.21	21	-1	22	14.2	15.2	-1.00	14.1	14.5	-0.36
Bryant Stith	52	55	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.25	19	1	18	14.3	14.5	-0.13	13.3	15.4	-2.10
Vitaly Potapenko	35	33	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.04	9	11	-2	16.0	13.5	2.49	13.5	14.6	-1.18
Eric Williams	31	31	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.07	12	8	4	14.0	14.6	-0.55	14.5	14.1	0.39
Paul Pierce	81	82	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.06	11	9	2	14.2	15.4	-1.18	14.5	13.2	1.28
Tony Battie	59	60	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.15	13	7	6	13.4	15.9	-2.57	14.6	13.8	0.83
Adrian Griffin	36	34	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.21	-2	22	-24	15.3	13.9	1.44	15.0	13.9	1.09
Randy Brown	25	30	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	21	-22	15.2	14.2	1.00	14.5	14.1	0.36
Jerome Moiso	14	15	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.10	-4	24	-28	16.5	14.1	2.43	14.1	14.3	-0.21
Mark Blount	6	8	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.03	-2	22	-24	15.3	14.4	0.98	15.0	14.2	0.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.68,0.68,0.75,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.83,0.85,0.84,0.9,0.86,0.88,0.91,0.83,0.86,0.82,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.86,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 97, PHI 113	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.71,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.75,0.76,0.75,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.89,0.92,0.91,0.96,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
MIN 83, SEA 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.63,0.65,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.88,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
MEM 100, DAL 111	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.66,0.69,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.77,0.84,0.9,0.84,0.91,0.9,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%