WNBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

inpredictable

WNBA Win Probability Box Scores

winProb
fourFactors
pace
clutch

Washington Mystics	87		Excitement	11.6 [4]		MVP	Chamique Holdsclaw (WAS): +47.5%
Sacramento Monarchs	86		Comeback	121.0 [1]		LVP	Ruthie Bolton (SAC): -28.7%

Washington Mystics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chamique Holdsclaw	0.48	0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.48	0.08	0.41	0.01	27	46%	0.53	2	-0.05	9	89%	0.06
Stacey Dales	0.33	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.33	0.24	0.09	0.00	15	70%	0.41	2	-0.08	7	86%	-0.01
Asjha Jones	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.02	0.17	-0.01	4	62%	0.21	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Helen Luz	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.01	0.08	-0.01	2	75%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tonya Massaline	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	5	31%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Coco Miller	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.03	-0.07	0.01	-0.04	14	32%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Murriel Page	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	6	17%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Audrey Sauret	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Vicky Bullett	-0.23	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23	-0.03	-0.19	0.01	10	41%	-0.07	2	-0.15	2	50%	-0.03

Sacramento Monarchs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kedra Holland-Corn	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.42	0.42	0.12	0.29	-0.01	22	53%	0.47	3	-0.05	9	56%	-0.14
Tangela Smith	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.18	0.07	0.04	17	62%	0.23	1	-0.03	8	75%	0.02
Andrea Nagy	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.08,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.02	0.15	-0.02	4	75%	0.33	3	-0.14	4	50%	-0.05
Cass Bauer-Bilodeau	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Lady Grooms	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.00	-0.08	0.01	7	44%	-0.05	1	-0.05	4	50%	-0.04
La'Keshia Frett	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.25	-0.25	0.06	-0.31	0.00	14	46%	-0.25	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ruthie Bolton	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29	-0.29	-0.17	-0.13	-0.02	12	8%	-0.26	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	SAC	WNBA	WAS	SAC	WNBA
this game	16.8	17.7	16.9	100.0	98.9	94.5
season	17.0	16.7		95.9	90.9
opponent	16.5	17.5		96.4	95.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	11.9	15.4	20.0	19.7	16.6
SAC	19.8	20.0	17.6	17.7	18.9

Clutch Shooting Report

	Shot Distribution				Effective FG%
	Garbage	Normal	Clutch	Clutch²	Garbage	Normal	Clutch	Clutch²
WAS	0%	63%	33%	3.6%	0.0%	46.2%	32.1%	50.0%
SAC	0%	60%	31%	9.0%	0.0%	44.7%	54.2%	21.4%
average	15%	73%	11%	1.0%	46.4%	46.6%	45.9%	37.5%

Clutch Shooting Boxscore

Washington Mystics
Player	Garbage		Normal		Clutch		Clutch²
Player	FGA	eFG%	FGA	eFG%	FGA	eFG%	FGA	eFG%
Chamique Holdsclaw	0	0%	16	50%	9	11%	2	75%
Stacey Dales	0	0%	9	67%	5	80%	1	0%
Asjha Jones	0	0%	3	33%	1	150%	0	0%
Helen Luz	0	0%	0	0%	2	75%	0	0%
Tonya Massaline	0	0%	5	20%	0	0%	0	0%
Coco Miller	0	0%	11	41%	3	0%	0	0%
Murriel Page	0	0%	2	0%	4	25%	0	0%
Audrey Sauret	0	0%	1	0%	0	0%	0	0%
Vicky Bullett	0	0%	6	67%	4	0%	0	0%
Mystics	0	0%	53	46%	28	32%	3	50%

Sacramento Monarchs
Player	Garbage		Normal		Clutch		Clutch²
Player	FGA	eFG%	FGA	eFG%	FGA	eFG%	FGA	eFG%
Kedra Holland-Corn	0	0%	16	41%	6	83%	0	0%
Tangela Smith	0	0%	8	75%	7	57%	2	0%
Andrea Nagy	0	0%	3	67%	0	0%	1	150%
Cass Bauer-Bilodeau	0	0%	2	0%	0	0%	0	0%
Lady Grooms	0	0%	3	33%	3	67%	1	0%
La'Keshia Frett	0	0%	6	75%	6	33%	2	0%
Ruthie Bolton	0	0%	9	11%	2	0%	1	0%
Monarchs	0	0%	47	45%	24	54%	7	21%