NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	99		Excitement	1.5 [1223]		MVP	Chris Paul (PHX): +30.0%
Phoenix Suns	110		Comeback	0.2 [1267]		LVP	Jonas Valanciunas (NOP): -10.8%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Larry Nance Jr.	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.06	0.00	8	70%	0.16	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
CJ McCollum	0.02	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.06	0.04	-0.05	25	45%	0.05	3	-0.03	6	67%	-0.00
Jaxson Hayes	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	44%	0.01	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.02
Naji Marshall	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	4	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jose Alvarado	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trey Murphy III	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	0.00	0.07	4	75%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devonte' Graham	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Herbert Jones	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	8	31%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Ingram	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	17	46%	-0.01	5	-0.09	5	100%	0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.11	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	0.00	0.04	21	37%	-0.09	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.13,0.2,0.28,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.23	0.09	0.02	16	88%	0.33	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Deandre Ayton	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.12	0.00	0.02	15	70%	0.11	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Cameron Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.03	0.02	6	87%	0.13	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.01	2	87%	0.10	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Devin Booker	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.10	-0.01	0.05	19	57%	0.06	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.01
Mikal Bridges	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	9	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	4	10%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Cameron Payne	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	6	17%	-0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.1	2.8	30.9	15.8	29.5	3.5	31.4	144.0
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +46.6%

PHX +7.6%

NOP -14.8%

PHX +9.5%

PHX +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	PHX	NBA	NOP	PHX	NBA
this game	16.1	14.9	14.5	106.5	118.3	110.8
season	14.7	14.2		110.9	114.0
opponent	14.7	14.6		107.5	112.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	18.1	15.7	13.7	17.2	16.1
PHX	12.7	15.6	14.5	17.1	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devonte' Graham	21	21	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-8	5	16.0	16.1	-0.10	12.7	15.5	-2.88
Trey Murphy III	50	51	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.29	6	-17	23	14.9	17.4	-2.50	15.9	13.7	2.19
Naji Marshall	33	32	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-10	9	14.5	17.0	-2.51	13.9	15.4	-1.55
Larry Nance Jr.	39	41	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.10	-3	-8	5	15.6	16.4	-0.84	14.6	15.1	-0.46
Jaxson Hayes	23	22	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.13	-11	0	-11	17.8	15.5	2.33	12.9	15.5	-2.60
Jose Alvarado	28	27	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.02	-9	-2	-7	15.8	16.2	-0.36	15.4	14.7	0.78
Herbert Jones	56	57	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.11	-7	-4	-3	16.7	15.2	1.47	15.5	13.9	1.64
Brandon Ingram	75	75	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.16	-6	-5	-1	16.1	15.8	0.30	14.7	15.6	-0.82
Jonas Valanciunas	58	56	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.06	-11	0	-11	16.8	14.9	1.82	15.0	14.7	0.32
CJ McCollum	82	83	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.22	-10	-1	-9	16.3	14.1	2.25	15.3	11.2	4.14

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Paul	64	67	0.57	-0.07	0.63	-0.02	20	-9	29	15.1	14.5	0.55	17.0	13.7	3.36
Devin Booker	80	79	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.17	7	4	3	14.5	17.1	-2.54	16.0	16.4	-0.42
Deandre Ayton	65	65	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.14	7	4	3	15.2	14.1	1.12	16.2	15.7	0.52
Jae Crowder	51	53	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.02	11	0	11	15.5	14.1	1.41	16.8	15.1	1.62
Mikal Bridges	73	74	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.19	4	7	-3	14.9	15.0	-0.14	15.9	16.7	-0.83
Cameron Johnson	47	46	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.13	3	8	-5	14.8	15.0	-0.21	14.9	17.2	-2.26
JaVale McGee	28	28	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.03	4	7	-3	14.1	15.2	-1.12	15.7	16.2	-0.52
Torrey Craig	24	23	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.05	3	8	-5	13.7	15.3	-1.65	15.3	16.3	-1.02
Cameron Payne	33	30	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.17	-4	15	-19	15.5	14.5	1.01	15.7	16.3	-0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.79,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.89,0.87,0.84,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.91,0.82,0.81,0.85,0.85,0.83,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 118, BKN 133	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.76,0.82,0.77,0.81,0.9,0.91,0.87,0.86,0.87,0.82,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.89,0.89,0.86,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.86,0.87,0.78,0.85,0.83,0.86,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
NJN 91, MIN 105	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.92,0.93,0.84,0.82,0.92,0.93,0.9,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.1%
ATL 95, SAS 111	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.75,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.91,0.94,0.9,0.91,0.89,0.85,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.1%