NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	104		Excitement	5.4 [709]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +17.9%
LA Clippers	89		Comeback	3.7 [132]		LVP	Kawhi Leonard (LAC): -15.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.03	0.03	26	71%	0.27	5	-0.09	4	100%	0.00
Gary Harris	0.07	0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	11	64%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	3	83%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	6	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jerami Grant	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	10	64%	0.09	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Paul Millsap	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Troy Daniels	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keita Bates-Diop	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Dozier	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	0	50%	0.00	2	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Porter Jr.	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Jokic	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	13	50%	0.04	5	-0.12	6	100%	0.02

LA Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Montrezl Harrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.04	0.04	10	69%	0.13	1	-0.02	9	67%	-0.01
Ivica Zubac	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.07	0.00	5	60%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaMychal Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.02	7	69%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.00	0.03	7	69%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Landry Shamet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terance Mann	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris Sr.	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	9	35%	-0.05	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Paul George	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.17	-0.02	-0.08	16	30%	0.01	5	-0.12	1	0%	-0.01
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.05	0.03	11	32%	-0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.08	-0.06	22	32%	-0.12	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.7	32.3	15.2	24.2	3.5	31.4	136.6
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +65.2%

LAC -2.5%

DEN +8.0%

LAC -22.3%

DEN +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAC	NBA	DEN	LAC	NBA
this game	16.9	13.9	14.2	110.6	95.7	109.6
season	15.0	13.8		112.0	113.2
opponent	14.4	14.5		107.0	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.1	15.7	18.4	18.7	16.9
LAC	14.3	12.0	16.8	13.1	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Harris	71	70	0.54	-0.04	0.58	-0.08	21	-6	27	16.5	17.8	-1.29	14.4	12.5	1.88
Jamal Murray	90	90	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.01	17	-2	19	16.6	22.0	-5.38	13.9	16.0	-2.13
Nikola Jokic	76	76	0.50	-0.00	0.50	-0.14	22	-7	29	16.5	18.2	-1.70	14.5	11.4	3.09
Jerami Grant	61	61	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.13	19	-4	23	16.1	18.2	-2.00	14.4	13.0	1.38
Paul Millsap	61	60	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.15	19	-4	23	16.3	17.9	-1.68	15.1	11.8	3.23
Michael Porter Jr.	29	29	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.07	1	14	-13	18.0	16.3	1.66	12.4	14.6	-2.26
Torrey Craig	38	37	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.11	-1	16	-17	17.7	16.2	1.49	13.3	14.4	-1.10
Troy Daniels	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	18	-21	20.0	16.8	3.18	6.0	14.0	-8.02
Keita Bates-Diop	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	18	-21	20.0	16.8	3.18	6.0	14.0	-8.02
PJ Dozier	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	18	-21	20.0	16.8	3.18	6.0	14.0	-8.02
Mason Plumlee	17	16	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	19	-23	18.1	16.6	1.55	11.7	14.4	-2.64
Monte Morris	27	26	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.22	-8	23	-31	18.7	16.1	2.60	12.2	14.6	-2.47

LA Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patrick Beverley	62	63	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.02	4	-19	23	13.0	15.8	-2.81	16.4	17.7	-1.28
Rodney McGruder	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-20	25	6.5	14.1	-7.60	20.7	16.7	3.94
Terance Mann	3	3	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.14	3	-18	21	4.3	14.3	-9.92	20.7	16.7	3.94
Lou Williams	48	48	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.15	2	-17	19	12.7	15.3	-2.62	18.3	15.3	2.94
JaMychal Green	45	45	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.12	0	-15	15	13.9	14.0	-0.13	17.6	16.2	1.39
Marcus Morris Sr.	52	53	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.07	-11	-4	-7	14.3	13.4	0.89	15.5	18.6	-3.16
Landry Shamet	12	11	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.03	-10	-5	-5	15.8	13.7	2.18	14.6	17.1	-2.51
Ivica Zubac	27	28	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.03	-10	-5	-5	15.2	13.4	1.81	15.8	17.3	-1.47
Reggie Jackson	7	6	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.02	-9	-6	-3	14.9	13.9	1.00	18.8	16.7	2.12
Montrezl Harrell	50	50	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.09	-8	-7	-1	13.7	14.2	-0.55	17.3	16.3	0.96
Paul George	72	74	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.15	-20	5	-25	14.8	10.9	3.91	16.8	16.9	-0.13
Kawhi Leonard	85	86	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	0.10	-21	6	-27	14.3	10.1	4.17	16.8	17.4	-0.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.5,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.65,0.6,0.68,0.69,0.75,0.79,0.73,0.61,0.51,0.62,0.63,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.28,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.28,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 108, TOR 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.7,0.69,0.74,0.77,0.79,0.67,0.51,0.43,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.22,0.2,0.22,0.15,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.23,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0.02,0,0	93.8%
CHI 109, MIL 94	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.64,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.45,0.46,0.39,0.32,0.23,0.24,0.21,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.6%
LAC 108, OKC 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.77,0.7,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.29,0.16,0.11,0.06,0.13,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.6%