NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	111		Excitement	9.5 [100]		MVP	Chris Paul (LAC): +18.6%
Los Angeles Clippers	107		Comeback	3.2 [281]		LVP	Blake Griffin (LAC): -60.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patty Mills	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.12	0.06	0.00	5	118%	0.23	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.13	0.10	0.04	0.00	13	66%	0.20	1	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Boris Diaw	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.09	-0.00	7	62%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Marco Belinelli	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	0.00	3	100%	0.18	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	9	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	8	64%	0.10	4	-0.13	6	100%	0.05
Tiago Splitter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	2	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04
Aron Baynes	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	16	43%	-0.02	2	-0.04	10	80%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.13	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	15	37%	-0.08	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.04

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.09	0.09	-0.01	14	58%	0.19	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.01	4	78%	0.09	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.07	0.01	5	58%	0.12	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.05
JJ Redick	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	10	59%	0.10	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Austin Rivers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.03	-0.00	4	20%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.07
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.15,-0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.08	0.00	9	62%	0.17	2	-0.20	16	44%	-0.14
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	15	27%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Blake Griffin	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.13,-0.18,-0.33,-0.33,-0.32,-0.32,-0.6	-0.60	-0.08	-0.50	0.03	25	47%	-0.27	5	-0.33	14	71%	-0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	2.8	36.1	17.4	42.0	2.8	46.3	175.8
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +38.5%

SAS +7.1%

LAC -21.3%

SAS +22.9%

SAS +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAC	NBA	SAS	LAC	NBA
this game	15.7	12.1	15.1	106.7	103.9	104.2
season	15.4	14.6		106.9	110.5
opponent	15.3	14.9		104.6	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.3	16.3	15.1	16.3	15.7
LAC	12.9	12.5	10.1	13.1	12.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Boris Diaw	48	50	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.27	14	-10	24	15.9	15.6	0.26	13.0	11.3	1.72
Tony Parker	69	67	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.39	2	2	0	16.7	13.7	3.01	12.5	11.4	1.09
Tim Duncan	82	81	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.43	-1	5	-6	15.9	15.0	0.96	12.1	12.0	0.12
Marco Belinelli	35	35	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.11	9	-5	14	15.6	15.8	-0.13	12.9	11.7	1.28
Aron Baynes	26	26	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.05	9	-5	14	15.1	15.9	-0.79	13.2	11.7	1.47
Matt Bonner	11	10	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.00	7	-3	10	15.5	15.7	-0.29	6.1	12.7	-6.64
Danny Green	72	72	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.31	-4	8	-12	16.1	14.8	1.25	12.7	10.7	1.98
Kawhi Leonard	80	80	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.41	-10	14	-24	15.5	16.5	-1.08	11.5	14.1	-2.56
Manu Ginobili	41	41	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.06	5	-1	6	15.6	15.8	-0.25	10.7	13.0	-2.27
Patty Mills	35	36	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	2	0	13.7	16.7	-3.01	11.4	12.5	-1.09
Tiago Splitter	21	17	-0.27	0.77	-1.05	0.11	-13	17	-30	15.5	15.8	-0.24	12.9	11.9	1.01

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Glen Davis	26	26	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.10	-4	0	-4	12.4	12.0	0.38	13.7	16.4	-2.69
Austin Rivers	31	30	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.11	-8	4	-12	11.1	12.5	-1.43	13.9	16.4	-2.50
Matt Barnes	60	59	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.12	0	-4	4	12.3	11.8	0.49	15.6	15.9	-0.31
Chris Paul	85	87	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.47	6	-10	16	11.9	12.9	-1.03	16.1	13.7	2.40
JJ Redick	87	88	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.23	-4	0	-4	12.5	9.8	2.70	16.3	12.7	3.57
Jamal Crawford	62	62	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.47	-2	-2	0	11.7	12.7	-0.93	15.7	15.7	0.08
DeAndre Jordan	76	80	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.44	-3	-1	-2	12.4	11.4	0.98	15.9	15.1	0.76
Blake Griffin	88	88	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.41	-5	1	-6	12.0	12.5	-0.51	15.9	14.7	1.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.63,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.37,0.33,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.62,0.52,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.19,0.11,0.09,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 104, DAL 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.41,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.62,0.57,0.48,0.52,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0	91.9%
ORL 106, UTA 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.64,0.56,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.69,0.63,0.72,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.47,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.14,0.28,0	91.7%
DET 72, IND 67	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.68,0.66,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.58,0.49,0.41,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.67,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.63,0.56,0.46,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.47,0.41,0.54,0.28,0.2,0.21,0.15,0.05,0	91.6%