NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	87		Excitement	3.3 [1128]		MVP	Kawhi Leonard (SAS): +12.0%
San Antonio Spurs	104		Comeback	3.1 [719]		LVP	Ray Allen (MIA): -18.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.05	0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.14	-0.02	0.07	21	61%	0.07	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	0.00	0.03	3	73%	0.03	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Norris Cole	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	2	33%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rashard Lewis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toney Douglas	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	7	53%	0.00	1	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00
Shane Battier	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	14	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.02	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	0.00	12	39%	-0.04	3	-0.06	4	50%	0.01
Ray Allen	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.13	-0.05	-0.00	8	28%	-0.10	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.13	0.02	0.03	10	85%	0.19	3	-0.06	6	83%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.01	-0.00	11	70%	0.14	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.16	0.00	0.06	10	85%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.02	10	54%	0.05	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Ayres	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	0	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	7	36%	0.00	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	-0.00	-0.03	5	0%	-0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	0.08	18	42%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.1	3.5	32.3	17.8	34.0	3.8	34.5	156.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +37.9%

SAS +1.5%

SAS +2.3%

SAS +7.8%

SAS +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAS	NBA	MIA	SAS	NBA
this game	15.1	16.5	15.1	95.6	114.3	105.2
season	15.6	15.0		109.7	109.8
opponent	15.0	15.8		101.1	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.0	17.4	16.9	12.8	15.1
SAS	16.1	17.7	14.5	18.0	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashard Lewis	19	18	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.14	8	-25	33	12.5	15.8	-3.25	16.9	16.5	0.49
James Jones	5	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-17	17	10.4	15.4	-4.97	16.0	16.6	-0.58
Toney Douglas	5	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-19	21	10.4	15.4	-4.97	19.5	16.4	3.09
Michael Beasley	33	34	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.14	4	-21	25	11.9	16.9	-4.96	17.8	15.8	1.99
Mario Chalmers	28	30	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.08	2	-19	21	12.2	16.4	-4.17	17.6	16.0	1.52
Shane Battier	20	23	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.07	-5	-12	7	14.3	15.3	-1.02	15.3	17.0	-1.67
Norris Cole	18	18	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.01	-4	-13	9	14.2	15.3	-1.16	15.0	16.9	-1.93
Chris Andersen	31	35	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.11	-11	-6	-5	17.8	13.7	4.11	15.7	17.1	-1.40
Dwyane Wade	67	66	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.03	-10	-7	-3	16.2	11.9	4.32	16.6	16.4	0.26
Udonis Haslem	19	17	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.14	-17	0	-17	17.4	14.5	2.93	15.8	16.7	-0.97
Ray Allen	59	55	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	0.08	-18	1	-19	16.6	12.4	4.20	16.3	16.9	-0.56
LeBron James	78	78	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.01	-16	-1	-15	15.3	13.6	1.73	16.6	16.4	0.19
Chris Bosh	73	72	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	0.06	-20	3	-23	15.1	14.9	0.19	16.8	15.7	1.09

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	51	53	0.48	0.02	0.47	-0.13	21	-4	25	15.3	18.2	-2.95	16.7	12.8	3.87
Boris Diaw	72	72	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.05	14	3	11	17.1	14.4	2.76	14.6	16.8	-2.20
Kawhi Leonard	64	64	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.02	15	2	13	15.8	18.3	-2.54	16.2	12.4	3.88
Patty Mills	33	34	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.10	15	2	13	15.3	17.3	-1.96	16.3	14.4	1.86
Tim Duncan	60	63	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.14	5	12	-7	17.5	14.7	2.79	15.3	14.7	0.50
Tiago Splitter	25	21	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.24	16	1	15	13.8	17.6	-3.74	16.8	14.6	2.22
Tony Parker	69	68	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.14	1	16	-15	17.0	15.0	2.04	14.4	17.3	-2.89
Marco Belinelli	16	15	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.02	2	15	-13	19.1	16.0	3.12	13.6	15.4	-1.79
Matt Bonner	13	14	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.05	3	14	-11	14.8	16.8	-2.08	16.2	14.9	1.32
Jeff Ayres	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	17	-17	16.0	16.6	-0.58	10.4	15.4	-4.97
Cory Joseph	4	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	19	-21	19.5	16.4	3.09	10.4	15.4	-4.97
Aron Baynes	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	18	-19	19.5	16.4	3.09	8.7	15.4	-6.64
Danny Green	39	37	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.08	-4	21	-25	17.9	15.6	2.31	12.9	16.6	-3.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.28,0.24,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.46,0.54,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.78,0.84,0.91,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 82, IND 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.63,0.74,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
TOR 87, ORL 116	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.48,0.52,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.76,0.84,0.79,0.91,0.88,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%
TOR 95, SAS 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.63,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.85,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%