NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	100		Excitement	11.2 [43]		MVP	Mike Miller (MEM): +44.3%
Oklahoma City Thunder	99		Comeback	1.2 [387]		LVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): -44.0%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0.44	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.44	0.18	0.23	-0.03	11	81%	0.44	0	0.00	4	100%	0.05
Tayshaun Prince	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Beno Udrih	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Zach Randolph	0.01	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.01	15	54%	0.04	1	-0.03	7	57%	-0.02
Courtney Lee	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.07	0.01	-0.05	8	35%	0.04	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Mike Conley	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.05	-0.01	17	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17	-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	14	34%	-0.13	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.03
Tony Allen	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.06	-0.19	-0.01	7	41%	-0.03	3	-0.22	3	33%	-0.06

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.24,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.03	0.03	10	71%	0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.02
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.12,-0.23,-0.11,-0.17,-0.1,-0.1,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.03	0.03	-0.09	0.11	-0.02	31	42%	0.15	4	-0.11	9	100%	0.08
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	0.00	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.01,0.1,0	0.00	0.08	-0.05	0.02	10	65%	0.10	1	-0.10	3	67%	-0.00
Nick Collison	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	6	42%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.26,-0.26,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	-0.32	-0.10	-0.22	-0.00	7	43%	-0.04	5	-0.27	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.34,-0.36,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.44	-0.44	-0.08	-0.33	0.03	24	48%	-0.08	6	-0.36	6	50%	-0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.6	2.8	30.2	17.7	32.1	2.7	43.0	2.5	18.6	177.2
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	1.9	17.6	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +13.5%

MEM +5.6%

OKC -9.0%

MEM +45.6%

OKC -5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	OKC	NBA	MEM	OKC	NBA
this game	17.9	14.5	15.1	102.0	101.0	105.2
season	16.4	14.4		104.5	107.8
opponent	15.4	15.2		102.9	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MEM	17.0	17.5	17.7	20.0	16.9	17.9
OKC	14.9	15.2	13.1	15.1	14.8	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Conley	71	71	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.38	9	-8	17	17.7	18.6	-0.89	14.5	14.6	-0.07
Marc Gasol	85	85	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.39	7	-6	13	18.5	14.3	4.15	14.5	14.6	-0.09
Tayshaun Prince	42	41	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.40	2	-1	3	17.7	18.1	-0.34	13.5	15.3	-1.81
Mike Miller	57	56	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.40	0	1	-1	17.6	18.3	-0.70	14.9	14.1	0.74
Tony Allen	61	62	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.49	-3	4	-7	17.8	18.1	-0.32	15.1	13.6	1.56
Zach Randolph	78	77	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.17	3	-2	5	17.8	18.5	-0.74	14.6	14.2	0.39
Ed Davis	4	5	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.04	2	-1	3	15.0	18.0	-3.03	19.2	14.3	4.91
Courtney Lee	52	53	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.00	-1	2	-3	19.0	16.7	2.29	13.8	15.4	-1.63
Kosta Koufos	12	12	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.09	-6	7	-13	15.5	18.2	-2.74	15.6	14.4	1.19
Beno Udrih	28	28	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.09	-8	9	-17	17.9	17.9	-0.02	14.2	14.7	-0.51

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Collison	20	20	0.09	-0.59	0.67	0.23	-5	4	-9	15.1	14.4	0.70	18.1	17.8	0.30
Steven Adams	2	2	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.01	0	-1	1	8.5	14.7	-6.17	20.5	17.9	2.65
Derek Fisher	18	17	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.08	-3	2	-5	16.5	14.1	2.40	18.2	17.9	0.32
Caron Butler	50	50	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.36	9	-10	19	15.0	14.1	0.90	17.6	18.2	-0.59
Kendrick Perkins	47	46	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.03	-8	7	-15	14.1	15.0	-0.92	18.0	17.8	0.17
Thabo Sefolosha	17	17	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.04	-6	5	-11	14.7	14.5	0.20	17.4	18.0	-0.60
Kevin Durant	95	95	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.49	1	-2	3	14.7	10.7	4.00	18.0	14.3	3.69
Reggie Jackson	72	73	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.65	6	-7	13	14.3	15.3	-1.04	17.8	18.1	-0.28
Russell Westbrook	89	89	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.50	1	-2	3	14.3	16.6	-2.22	18.0	16.9	1.12
Serge Ibaka	80	81	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.65	0	-1	1	14.4	15.1	-0.70	17.8	18.5	-0.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.26,0.27,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.11,0.21,0.26,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.41,0.46,0.33,0.32,0.11,0.31,0.42,0.54,0.38,0.28,0.23,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 98, HOU 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.4,0.41,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.2,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.22,0.32,0.38,0.43,0.25,0.2,0.32,0.3,0.35,0.29,0.39,0.28,0.33,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.21,0.22,0.37,0	90.6%
LAL 105, UTA 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.33,0.34,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.27,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.17,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.1,0.08,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.38,0.42,0.3,0.34,0.4,0.31,0.22,0.1,0.28,0.46,0.47,0.36,0.45,0.58,0	90.2%
MIL 124, LAL 122	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.15,0.16,0.2,0.12,0.16,0.2,0.22,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.18,0.24,0.31,0.26,0.41,0.47,0.38,0.28,0.22,0.42,0.5,0.39,0.16,0.02,0.09,0	90.1%