NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	99		Excitement	6.5 [399]		MVP	Stephen Jackson (SAS): +30.8%
Oklahoma City Thunder	107		Comeback	10.9 [186]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -9.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Jackson	0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.31	0.25	0.09	0.03	7	115%	0.36	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.02
Tony Parker	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.02	27	49%	0.03	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Neal	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.00	6	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Tim Duncan	-0.04	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.00	23	50%	0.06	2	-0.10	4	75%	0.01
Kawhi Leonard	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	7	36%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.10	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	12	42%	0.03	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.18	0.13	0.03	17	69%	0.32	2	-0.04	15	80%	0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.09	0.00	7	64%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.08	0.03	9	67%	0.18	3	-0.09	6	83%	-0.02
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.03	0.01	5	90%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	8	53%	0.07	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	0.03	17	61%	0.16	5	-0.18	7	86%	0.01
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	8	25%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	3.5	31.2	18.8	29.2	2.7	38.2	150.4
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +45.2%

OKC +6.6%

OKC +0.2%

SAS -3.1%

OKC +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	OKC	NBA	SAS	OKC	NBA
this game	15.7	14.9	15.6	105.3	113.8	102.8
season	15.3	14.7		109.1	107.9
opponent	15.8	15.2		101.9	101.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.0	16.6	16.7	15.6	15.7
OKC	16.0	14.7	13.3	15.7	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Green	8	8	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.05	-1	-7	6	15.4	15.7	-0.37	14.2	15.0	-0.74
Boris Diaw	49	48	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.05	1	-9	10	15.9	15.5	0.43	15.0	14.8	0.19
DeJuan Blair	2	1	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.01	-2	-6	4	19.5	15.6	3.87	16.0	14.9	1.09
Tiago Splitter	1	2	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.06	-4	-4	0	19.0	15.7	3.32	10.0	15.0	-5.03
Gary Neal	38	36	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.05	-2	-6	4	17.3	14.6	2.65	14.0	15.5	-1.45
Stephen Jackson	63	62	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.20	-4	-4	0	15.4	16.3	-0.91	15.2	14.4	0.79
Tim Duncan	78	80	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.33	-3	-5	2	15.5	16.8	-1.33	15.1	14.1	1.00
Tony Parker	81	81	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.31	-5	-3	-2	15.6	16.7	-1.14	15.0	14.8	0.18
Manu Ginobili	71	73	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.07	-14	6	-20	15.4	16.7	-1.24	14.7	15.9	-1.20
Kawhi Leonard	79	79	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.42	-6	-2	-4	15.6	16.2	-0.58	15.3	12.9	2.45

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Russell Westbrook	81	81	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.32	8	0	8	15.0	14.4	0.63	15.6	16.4	-0.78
James Harden	68	68	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.27	9	-1	10	14.6	15.8	-1.22	16.1	14.7	1.36
Kevin Durant	94	94	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.27	8	0	8	14.9	0.0	14.93	15.7	0.0	15.71
Derek Fisher	45	44	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.24	3	5	-2	15.2	14.7	0.53	15.9	15.6	0.28
Kendrick Perkins	54	55	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.11	5	3	2	15.4	14.3	1.09	14.8	17.0	-2.24
Serge Ibaka	61	63	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.14	4	4	0	15.1	14.7	0.40	16.4	14.2	2.22
Thabo Sefolosha	53	51	0.25	0.25	-0.00	-0.04	10	-2	12	14.1	16.0	-1.99	15.8	15.6	0.24
Nick Collison	14	14	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.03	-7	15	-22	16.1	14.7	1.35	14.0	16.0	-2.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.32,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.23,0.18,0.15,0.18,0.19,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.15,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.27,0.33,0.21,0.29,0.31,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.86,0.89,0.89,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 93, UTA 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.2,0.25,0.21,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.23,0.11,0.09,0.16,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.16,0.18,0.26,0.27,0.37,0.44,0.55,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.71,0.73,0.79,0.75,0.73,0.8,0.97,1,1,1	92.8%
LAC 91, NYK 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.16,0.15,0.18,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.2,0.3,0.24,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.5,0.52,0.62,0.7,0.72,0.64,0.7,0.6,0.61,0.72,0.83,0.84,1	92.8%
PHI 95, CLE 106	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.38,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.52,0.47,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.95,1,0.99,1	92.5%