NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	83		Excitement	8.1 [230]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +21.4%
Dallas Mavericks	86		Comeback	5.8 [269]		LVP	LeBron James (MIA): -27.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.21	0.15	0.06	-0.01	20	65%	0.31	2	-0.10	9	67%	-0.09
Juwan Howard	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.05	19	52%	0.14	4	-0.16	8	75%	0.03
Mario Chalmers	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	5	38%	-0.02	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.08,-0.08	-0.01	-0.07	0.00	5	40%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19	-0.03	-0.16	-0.01	8	37%	-0.11	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.11,-0.14,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.16	-0.12	-0.00	11	31%	-0.15	4	-0.13	4	50%	-0.03

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	12	62%	0.11	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.03	-0.00	7	59%	0.02	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.06
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.02	0.02	0.08	-0.06	-0.00	7	69%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brendan Haywood	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.05	0.00	15	47%	-0.03	0	0.00	6	67%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.23,-0.15,-0.15,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.02	-0.02	19	44%	0.11	3	-0.14	10	90%	0.07
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	0.00	9	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.03	-0.01	3	0%	-0.07	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.1	3.4	31.9	19.8	30.5	3.6	40.1	159.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -10.2%

DAL +17.4%

DAL +18.0%

DAL +25.1%

MIA -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DAL	NBA	MIA	DAL	NBA
this game	16.6	17.5	15.5	97.6	102.4	105.7
season	16.0	15.7		109.0	108.5
opponent	15.7	15.6		103.8	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.1	15.1	17.8	17.7	16.6
DAL	15.9	18.5	19.2	16.6	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juwan Howard	5	5	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.05	3	-6	9	13.6	16.8	-3.23	18.2	17.4	0.79
Mike Bibby	26	27	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	1	-5	18.7	15.7	2.91	18.7	16.9	1.79
Mario Chalmers	56	53	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.26	3	-6	9	15.5	18.9	-3.43	17.0	18.2	-1.12
Mike Miller	28	29	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.26	2	-5	7	15.2	17.4	-2.17	15.4	18.5	-3.11
Joel Anthony	49	48	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.03	-8	5	-13	17.7	15.2	2.45	17.0	18.0	-0.96
Udonis Haslem	39	40	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.40	4	-7	11	15.5	17.6	-2.07	17.2	17.7	-0.53
Chris Bosh	75	72	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.41	-2	-1	-1	16.7	15.8	0.95	17.9	14.8	3.06
LeBron James	79	79	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.40	-6	3	-9	16.9	13.3	3.55	17.7	14.0	3.67
Dwyane Wade	68	67	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.44	-7	4	-11	17.1	14.6	2.49	17.9	15.9	1.97

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kidd	67	67	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.45	12	-9	21	18.0	15.4	2.56	17.3	14.3	2.99
DeShawn Stevenson	45	46	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.43	6	-3	9	16.9	18.1	-1.12	16.4	16.9	-0.44
Dirk Nowitzki	66	70	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.36	7	-4	11	17.5	17.2	0.36	17.1	14.4	2.71
Tyson Chandler	75	75	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.33	7	-4	11	17.6	16.1	1.50	16.8	15.2	1.63
Jason Terry	63	64	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.44	1	2	-1	17.3	17.9	-0.60	15.8	19.2	-3.39
Shawn Marion	45	44	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	5	-7	17.9	16.9	1.04	16.8	16.5	0.33
Brian Cardinal	14	13	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.02	-1	4	-5	17.6	17.4	0.23	15.8	16.8	-0.93
Brendan Haywood	7	7	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.07	-10	13	-23	14.9	17.7	-2.83	11.6	17.1	-5.52
Jose Juan Barea	38	39	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.07	-7	10	-17	16.8	18.0	-1.21	16.9	16.4	0.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.5,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.48,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.15,0.2,0.32,0.21,0.35,0.53,0.69,0.63,0.84,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 70, LAL 73	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.52,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.4,0.47,0.53,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.28,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.67,0.89,0.85,0.91,0.84,1	91.4%
PHI 97, DET 101	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.48,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.41,0.59,0.67,0.86,0.79,0.9,0.96,1	91.0%
DET 92, CHI 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.37,0.44,0.3,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.32,0.31,0.54,0.6,0.69,0.71,0.84,0.96,1	91.0%