NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	113		Excitement	6.0 [605]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +40.8%
Denver Nuggets	126		Comeback	1.5 [838]		LVP	Kenyon Martin (DEN): -7.4%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Deron Williams	0.16	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.07	0.08	-0.00	15	60%	0.18	2	-0.02	13	69%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.02	16	56%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kyle Korver	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	8	76%	0.18	3	-0.11	1	100%	0.01
CJ Miles	0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	0.00	0.03	10	63%	0.08	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.03
Mehmet Okur	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	2	117%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Wesley Matthews	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	5	50%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Paul Millsap	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	13	54%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.00
Ronnie Price	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sundiata Gaines	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Othyus Jeffers	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	2	40%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	0.00
Kyrylo Fesenko	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.2,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41	0.41	0.33	0.16	0.08	25	78%	0.41	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.12	0.02	14	62%	0.23	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.05	0.00	7	86%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.04	0.02	10	66%	0.14	1	-0.03	9	56%	-0.03
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.04	-0.02	8	55%	0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	-0.02	12	58%	0.06	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	7	44%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	2.8	36.0	19.8	27.3	4.3	32.6	149.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +37.2%

UTA -5.8%

DEN +16.0%

DEN +6.5%

UTA -3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	DEN	NBA	UTA	DEN	NBA
this game	15.7	14.8	15.3	121.5	131.2	106.0
season	15.3	14.4		109.5	110.3
opponent	15.5	15.0		106.4	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	15.6	17.8	14.7	14.9	15.7
DEN	13.2	13.7	17.3	15.1	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sundiata Gaines	4	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-16	19	9.5	16.0	-6.48	12.0	14.9	-2.95
Othyus Jeffers	4	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-16	19	9.5	16.0	-6.48	12.0	14.9	-2.95
Mehmet Okur	23	23	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.04	1	-14	15	16.4	15.5	0.98	13.1	15.3	-2.24
Kosta Koufos	6	8	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.05	1	-14	15	9.7	16.1	-6.45	10.0	15.2	-5.23
Ronnie Price	19	22	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.14	4	-17	21	14.8	15.9	-1.14	14.5	14.9	-0.32
Kyrylo Fesenko	11	13	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.12	-1	-12	11	13.7	16.0	-2.24	12.0	15.2	-3.23
CJ Miles	47	48	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.12	-12	-1	-11	16.6	14.8	1.86	14.4	15.1	-0.71
Kyle Korver	54	54	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.01	-9	-4	-5	15.5	16.0	-0.56	15.5	13.9	1.62
Paul Millsap	66	68	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.01	-12	-1	-11	16.1	14.7	1.45	16.0	12.0	3.99
Wesley Matthews	73	75	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.17	-9	-4	-5	16.1	14.2	1.85	14.8	14.6	0.22
Carlos Boozer	80	80	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.05	-15	2	-17	15.9	14.7	1.17	15.2	12.6	2.60
Deron Williams	78	79	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	0.01	-19	6	-25	15.8	15.2	0.59	14.9	14.3	0.60

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ty Lawson	43	40	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.14	16	-3	19	14.6	15.0	-0.38	16.8	14.9	1.93
Carmelo Anthony	74	74	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.03	17	-4	21	15.0	14.0	1.09	16.4	13.2	3.19
J.R. Smith	55	53	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.11	14	-1	15	14.4	15.3	-0.83	15.5	15.9	-0.40
Chris Andersen	43	42	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.07	14	-1	15	14.7	14.9	-0.21	15.8	15.6	0.11
Kenyon Martin	67	67	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.10	9	4	5	15.1	14.1	0.94	16.3	14.2	2.09
Nene	72	69	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.11	9	4	5	15.0	14.2	0.78	15.8	15.4	0.44
Malik Allen	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	16	-19	12.0	14.9	-2.95	9.5	16.0	-6.48
Joey Graham	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	16	-19	12.0	14.9	-2.95	9.5	16.0	-6.48
Johan Petro	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	16	-19	12.0	14.9	-2.95	9.5	16.0	-6.48
Chauncey Billups	58	58	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.16	3	10	-7	15.0	14.5	0.48	15.7	15.7	-0.07
Arron Afflalo	53	50	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.14	-8	21	-29	15.0	14.5	0.55	14.6	17.0	-2.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.58,0.52,0.67,0.8,0.78,0.83,0.91,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 93, HOU 97	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.58,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.61,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.33,0.36,0.5,0.6,0.75,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.87,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.98,1	94.9%
BKN 95, LAC 105	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.44,0.44,0.33,0.4,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.72,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.91,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	94.2%
LAC 105, HOU 110	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.43,0.5,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.48,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.41,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.71,0.76,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.87,1,0.98,0.99,0.99,1	94.2%