NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	102		Excitement	6.3 [541]		MVP	LeBron James (CLE): +45.9%
Cleveland Cavaliers	112		Comeback	1.5 [1044]		LVP	Brad Miller (CHI): -8.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joakim Noah	0.16	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.06	0.02	18	61%	0.16	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Luol Deng	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.05	0.00	15	57%	0.14	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Taj Gibson	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.04	0.00	7	73%	0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Ronald Murray	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.03	-0.03	14	47%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Derrick Rose	0.00	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	24	44%	0.04	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.02
James Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	8	31%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.31,0.31,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.46,0.46	0.46	0.26	0.20	0.01	23	77%	0.49	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.05
Jamario Moon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.15	0.10	0.04	5	120%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	5	90%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	58%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	8	50%	0.03	0	0.00	8	100%	0.04
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	7	47%	0.06	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
JJ Hickson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	12	56%	0.07	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	4	67%	0.07	4	-0.13	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.5	2.8	28.1	18.8	28.4	3.6	34.1	144.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +62.7%

CLE +2.2%

CHI -1.5%

CHI -18.4%

CLE +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	CLE	NBA	CHI	CLE	NBA
this game	15.3	16.7	15.3	114.6	123.1	106.0
season	14.7	16.1		101.9	109.5
opponent	15.0	15.7		103.3	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.8	16.0	16.6	15.0	15.3
CLE	13.9	17.4	17.7	18.6	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	43	43	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.17	4	-14	18	15.8	14.8	1.01	16.9	16.5	0.41
Brad Miller	42	44	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.05	-4	-6	2	15.3	15.3	-0.06	15.7	17.6	-1.91
James Johnson	9	10	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.02	-5	-5	0	15.1	15.3	-0.20	14.2	17.0	-2.80
Luol Deng	74	76	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.16	0	-10	10	15.2	15.5	-0.29	17.1	14.6	2.51
Ronald Murray	52	51	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.18	-7	-3	-4	15.6	14.9	0.73	18.0	15.1	2.89
Derrick Rose	81	83	-0.52	0.01	-0.53	-0.13	-13	3	-16	15.3	15.0	0.32	16.2	22.0	-5.82
Joakim Noah	77	79	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.15	-15	5	-20	15.2	16.1	-0.91	16.5	17.7	-1.12
Kirk Hinrich	67	69	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.30	-10	0	-10	14.9	16.4	-1.48	16.9	15.9	1.03

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamario Moon	34	34	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.17	14	-4	18	18.0	15.9	2.13	15.8	15.0	0.76
Delonte West	47	48	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.20	12	-2	14	18.3	15.0	3.28	16.0	14.5	1.45
Mo Williams	74	72	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.21	6	4	2	16.4	18.0	-1.61	14.9	17.1	-2.18
LeBron James	77	74	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.15	6	4	2	16.8	16.1	0.65	15.4	14.7	0.75
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	32	31	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.12	5	5	0	16.2	16.9	-0.68	15.2	15.3	-0.15
Anderson Varejao	48	48	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.01	7	3	4	18.2	15.0	3.25	16.6	13.7	2.89
Antawn Jamison	60	58	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	7	-4	16.1	17.9	-1.84	15.3	15.3	0.05
Shaquille O'Neal	32	31	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	11	-12	15.5	17.4	-1.89	13.9	16.0	-2.13
JJ Hickson	1	1	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.01	0	10	-10	0.0	16.9	-16.88	1.0	15.5	-14.45
Anthony Parker	50	48	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	12	-14	15.3	18.4	-3.18	14.6	16.1	-1.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.64,0.71,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.54,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.4,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.83,0.85,0.97,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 90, LAL 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.72,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.57,0.71,0.73,0.79,0.92,0.9,0.86,0.99,1,1,1	93.1%
ATL 90, ORL 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.74,0.73,0.69,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.41,0.5,0.57,0.81,0.76,0.73,0.59,0.59,0.88,0.87,0.93,0.78,0.91,1	93.1%
GSW 96, SAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.39,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.58,0.66,0.79,0.8,0.72,0.69,0.71,0.77,0.8,0.93,0.99,1,1	93.0%