NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	100		Excitement	7.6 [286]		MVP	Josh Childress (ATL): +24.8%
Atlanta Hawks	103		Comeback	3.4 [111]		LVP	Rajon Rondo (BOS): -21.5%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kendrick Perkins	0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19	0.13	0.07	0.01	5	100%	0.19	0	0.00	4	100%	0.05
James Posey	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.1	0.05	0.05	0.00	4	75%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Leon Powe	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.04	0.01	2	90%	0.11	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.00
Paul Pierce	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.01	12	61%	0.08	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Eddie House	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	8	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06	0.01	-0.07	-0.00	17	52%	0.06	2	-0.12	8	75%	-0.00
Ray Allen	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.04,-0.09	0.03	-0.12	-0.01	19	49%	-0.09	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Rajon Rondo	-0.22	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22	-0.14	-0.09	-0.01	14	29%	-0.14	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.11	0.11	-0.03	8	75%	0.25	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Marvin Williams	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.07	0.00	9	75%	0.19	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.05
Al Horford	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.06	0.01	10	59%	0.14	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.04
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,0.04,0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.07	0.00	13	45%	0.09	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.04
Acie Law	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Solomon Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario West	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	17	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.07
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.05	0.00	4	60%	-0.01	1	-0.03	7	43%	-0.08
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	0.01	8	50%	-0.02	6	-0.15	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.6	1.8	37.2	19.6	35.0	3.7	44.1	174.0
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +25.9%

ATL +14.9%

ATL +15.5%

BOS -7.1%

ATL +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ATL	NBA	BOS	ATL	NBA
this game	17.3	15.6	15.4	112.4	119.8	105.7
season	15.6	15.4		108.0	104.2
opponent	15.7	15.9		107.2	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	16.6	19.9	15.1	18.3	17.3
ATL	14.7	15.2	14.3	18.6	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie House	1	2	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.03	2	-5	7	0.0	17.5	-17.52	5.0	15.8	-10.81
Tony Allen	1	1	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-3	3	0.0	17.5	-17.52	9.0	15.6	-6.64
Glen Davis	4	3	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-1	-1	22.2	17.1	5.16	11.7	15.7	-4.03
P.J. Brown	7	7	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.00	-3	0	-3	21.4	17.0	4.45	17.1	15.4	1.73
Leon Powe	28	27	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.00	-3	0	-3	17.5	17.3	0.20	16.0	15.3	0.70
Sam Cassell	34	33	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.22	3	-6	9	19.3	16.1	3.23	16.6	14.9	1.65
Paul Pierce	62	62	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.17	1	-4	5	17.6	16.6	1.00	15.1	16.8	-1.71
Kendrick Perkins	61	60	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.39	3	-6	9	17.6	16.6	1.00	15.5	15.6	-0.08
Rajon Rondo	56	53	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.20	-7	4	-11	15.9	19.7	-3.77	14.9	16.6	-1.65
Ray Allen	76	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.26	-5	2	-7	17.1	18.8	-1.69	15.7	14.6	1.09
James Posey	40	37	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.41	-2	-1	-1	17.4	17.3	0.13	16.2	15.1	1.11
Kevin Garnett	75	73	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.41	-2	-1	-1	16.9	19.4	-2.50	15.7	14.8	0.93

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Childress	46	49	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.55	7	-4	11	16.7	14.2	2.45	16.9	17.8	-0.95
Mike Bibby	72	75	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.22	8	-5	13	16.0	13.4	2.63	17.4	16.7	0.73
Zaza Pachulia	49	49	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	-8	19	16.3	14.5	1.79	17.8	16.8	1.00
Josh Smith	54	56	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.20	2	1	1	14.4	17.4	-2.99	18.5	15.4	3.07
Al Horford	65	66	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.50	-9	12	-21	15.8	14.9	0.93	16.9	18.4	-1.50
Marvin Williams	54	55	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.20	-2	5	-7	13.7	18.6	-4.88	16.9	18.0	-1.14
Joe Johnson	77	79	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.34	-8	11	-19	15.5	15.7	-0.12	17.6	15.1	2.51
Acie Law	10	11	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.07	5	-2	7	16.5	15.4	1.07	16.1	17.5	-1.41
Solomon Jones	3	4	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	2	-1	20.3	15.4	4.95	12.7	17.5	-4.79
Mario West	0	1	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	3	-3	0.0	15.6	-15.56	3.0	17.5	-14.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.5,0.4,0.4,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.3,0.26,0.27,0.38,0.52,0.62,0.47,0.42,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.9,0.85,0.87,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 103, MIL 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.52,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.81,0.93,0.94,0.99,1	92.5%
BOS 83, PHI 85	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.29,0.3,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.22,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.81,0.93,0.95,0.96,1,1,1	92.3%
POR 80, CLE 88	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.26,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.26,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.39,0.24,0.33,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.3,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.69,0.53,0.66,0.81,0.71,0.86,0.99,1	92.1%