inpredictable
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NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)
Real Time? Pre Game Odds?
Chicago Bulls 92 Excitement7.0 [441] MVPLuol Deng (CHI): +16.1%
Miami Heat 79 Comeback3.2 [238] LVPDwyane Wade (MIA): -17.4%


Chicago Bulls
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Luol Deng0.160,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.160.070.08-0.011856%0.171-0.01367%-0.02
Chris Duhon0.110,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.110.050.060.00475%0.1100.0000%0.00
Ben Wallace0.080,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.080.050.050.02665%0.101-0.02887%0.01
Ben Gordon0.060,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.060.06-0.00-0.011657%0.122-0.061090%0.03
Tyrus Thomas0.0000.000.000.0000%0.0000.0000%0.00
Malik Allen-0.010,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.010.000.000.02250%-0.0100.0000%0.00
Andres Nocioni-0.040,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04-0.04-0.01-0.011437%-0.0400.00250%-0.01
P.J. Brown-0.040,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04-0.01-0.020.011038%-0.0400.0010%-0.02
Thabo Sefolosha-0.060,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06-0.05-0.01-0.0020%-0.041-0.0200%0.00
Kirk Hinrich-0.080,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08-0.08-0.03-0.021225%-0.0800.0000%0.00

Miami Heat
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.140.140.100.040.00674%0.1400.00729%-0.10
James Posey0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.040.04-0.090.09-0.04828%0.082-0.042100%0.03
Antoine Walker0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.020.02-0.000.02-0.00440%0.0200.00250%-0.01
Dorell Wright00.000.000.000.0000%0.0000.0000%0.00
Michael Doleac00.000.000.000.0000%0.0000.0000%0.00
Jason Kapono0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01-0.01-0.010.010.00350%0.021-0.0200%0.00
Jason Williams0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01-0.01-0.020.01-0.00642%0.011-0.0200%0.00
Gary Payton0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06-0.06-0.04-0.02-0.0000%0.002-0.0600%0.00
Udonis Haslem0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09-0.09-0.02-0.09-0.01944%-0.011-0.0800%0.00
Shaquille O'Neal0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15-0.15-0.06-0.090.011446%-0.053-0.1070%-0.15
Dwyane Wade0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17-0.17-0.13-0.09-0.042245%0.057-0.22989%0.03
Game Length Report (minutes)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Total
this game27.73.534.618.825.72.837.2150.2
league avg28.72.429.915.926.52.434.0141.5
Win Probability Added by the Four Factors
(aka How the Game Was Won)
victory
100% WP
start
50% WP
MIA -5.7%
CHI +10.6%
CHI +1.5%
CHI +43.7%
MIA -0.1%
Pace and Efficiency Report

seconds / possessionpoints / 100 possessions
all possessionsCHIMIANBACHIMIANBA
this game16.216.115.4103.488.8104.5
season14.516.0103.1102.4
opponent15.615.9104.398.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

Q1Q2Q3Q4Total
CHI14.516.317.417.216.2
MIA14.315.718.616.316.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Andres Nocioni51500.51-0.010.510.21103716.016.6-0.5515.516.9-1.47
Luol Deng78790.50-0.000.510.121301316.614.02.5516.711.94.76
Ben Wallace64660.480.020.450.18103716.814.72.1116.216.00.23
Ben Gordon83830.460.040.410.2285316.217.0-0.8216.511.25.32
Chris Duhon34330.440.060.380.091211117.315.61.6616.216.10.04
Kirk Hinrich60610.110.39-0.29-0.0149-515.617.4-1.8015.617.2-1.54
Thabo Sefolosha19180.080.42-0.33-0.0658-316.216.2-0.0315.116.4-1.34
P.J. Brown34350.030.47-0.45-0.06310-716.116.3-0.1917.015.61.44
Tyrus Thomas110.000.50-0.50-0.06211-921.016.24.8215.016.1-1.14
Malik Allen2119-0.100.60-0.69-0.04-215-1714.016.9-2.8614.816.5-1.70

Miami Heat
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Jason Williams44440.07-0.570.640.070-131316.515.80.6515.517.0-1.46
Dorell Wright11-0.00-0.500.500.06-2-11915.016.1-1.1421.016.24.82
Michael Doleac11-0.00-0.500.500.06-2-11915.016.1-1.1421.016.24.82
Alonzo Mourning2930-0.17-0.330.16-0.11-2-11916.316.00.2817.215.81.40
Antoine Walker2727-0.21-0.290.08-0.09-4-9515.416.4-1.0317.615.62.00
Udonis Haslem6262-0.22-0.280.05-0.11-4-9516.315.80.5015.318.4-3.12
Gary Payton3233-0.26-0.24-0.03-0.12-5-8316.216.10.2018.415.03.43
Jason Kapono2425-0.28-0.22-0.06-0.05-8-5-314.316.8-2.4516.216.20.01
Shaquille O'Neal5857-0.40-0.10-0.29-0.04-12-1-1116.215.90.3415.916.7-0.80
Dwyane Wade8484-0.48-0.02-0.46-0.19-10-3-716.410.85.6416.019.6-3.56
James Posey8381-0.540.04-0.59-0.07-163-1916.116.5-0.4016.019.0-3.04


Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.56,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.69,0.65,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.43,0.33,0.24,0.27,0.21,0.29,0.39,0.32,0.12,0.01,0,0
GameSimilarity Score
DEN 107, HOU 940.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.38,0.43,0.25,0.14,0.15,0.21,0.35,0.47,0.19,0.03,0,0,093.0%
LAL 103, SAC 980.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.52,0.4,0.32,0.22,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.31,0.24,0.29,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.15,092.5%
GSW 107, DAL 1040.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.51,0.52,0.64,0.68,0.52,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.24,0.32,0.26,0.46,0.39,0.25,0.02,0.01,0.08,092.3%