NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	78		Excitement	6.3 [567]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +18.5%
Miami Heat	92		Comeback	1.9 [823]		LVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): -27.3%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andres Nocioni	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.02	0.00	11	70%	0.21	3	-0.09	11	82%	0.02
Michael Sweetney	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.02	-0.04	9	67%	0.15	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.05
Eric Piatkowski	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Schenscher	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	1	83%	0.03	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.02
Chris Duhon	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	8	37%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	8	22%	-0.10	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.05
Ben Gordon	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.15	-0.03	-0.04	16	29%	-0.07	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	-0.27	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.25,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.20	-0.07	-0.00	13	30%	-0.06	6	-0.21	4	75%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.08	0.09	-0.02	18	61%	0.25	3	-0.06	10	90%	0.04
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.00	0.03	-0.05	7	53%	0.11	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	11	52%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Derek Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	0.02	0.03	9	53%	0.03	3	-0.08	12	17%	-0.13
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Antoine Walker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	0.00	16	38%	-0.08	2	-0.02	13	46%	-0.13

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	35.4	2.0	37.3	20.4	32.9	3.7	35.6	167.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +46.8%

CHI -16.2%

CHI -7.3%

MIA +28.9%

CHI -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	14.4	16.1	15.6	83.0	96.8	104.4
season	14.4	15.5		102.6	106.1
opponent	15.5	16.1		102.3	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.1	14.8	14.4	14.2	14.4
MIA	14.7	15.8	16.9	17.1	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Othella Harrington	5	8	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.04	3	-17	20	13.4	14.4	-1.03	16.4	16.1	0.31
Jannero Pargo	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-19	24	11.3	14.5	-3.14	16.7	16.1	0.59
Luke Schenscher	20	19	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.21	6	-20	26	14.0	14.5	-0.47	17.2	15.8	1.33
Michael Sweetney	55	56	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-14	14	13.6	15.4	-1.82	15.5	16.9	-1.36
Eric Piatkowski	18	18	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.01	-5	-9	4	13.6	14.6	-0.94	15.6	16.2	-0.67
Tyson Chandler	7	8	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.03	-5	-9	4	18.0	14.1	3.92	18.5	15.9	2.63
Andres Nocioni	69	71	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.11	-14	0	-14	14.5	14.1	0.40	16.3	15.5	0.85
Malik Allen	38	36	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.01	-10	-4	-6	15.1	13.9	1.27	15.7	16.3	-0.64
Luol Deng	60	58	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	-2	-10	14.0	15.1	-1.08	16.1	16.1	-0.07
Ben Gordon	75	79	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.18	-19	5	-24	14.7	13.1	1.65	15.9	17.1	-1.16
Chris Duhon	42	40	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.12	-10	-4	-6	14.5	14.3	0.19	16.6	15.7	0.83
Kirk Hinrich	78	79	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.19	-9	-5	-4	14.5	13.8	0.67	16.0	16.4	-0.41

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	65	68	0.63	-0.13	0.75	-0.05	23	-9	32	15.8	16.7	-0.93	14.2	14.7	-0.50
James Posey	69	66	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.04	20	-6	26	15.9	16.7	-0.77	14.2	14.8	-0.59
Shaquille O'Neal	49	49	0.54	-0.04	0.58	-0.08	21	-7	28	17.1	15.0	2.16	15.0	13.7	1.27
Antoine Walker	84	83	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.07	15	-1	16	16.1	16.2	-0.10	14.4	14.5	-0.09
Gary Payton	62	62	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.15	5	9	-4	17.0	14.3	2.70	14.4	14.3	0.14
Jason Williams	58	56	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.00	2	12	-10	15.6	16.9	-1.31	14.7	13.9	0.85
Michael Doleac	26	26	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.16	-5	19	-24	14.8	16.6	-1.77	12.7	15.0	-2.27
Alonzo Mourning	20	19	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.01	-2	16	-18	15.2	16.3	-1.13	15.1	14.2	0.85
Derek Anderson	10	8	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.06	-4	18	-22	14.5	16.3	-1.78	13.7	14.4	-0.68
Udonis Haslem	32	33	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.08	-5	19	-24	16.8	15.7	1.04	14.5	14.3	0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.63,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.62,0.62,0.8,0.9,0.92,0.88,0.84,0.95,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 99, DEN 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.69,0.69,0.59,0.5,0.48,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.45,0.49,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.7,0.75,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.9,0.97,0.96,0.9,0.98,1	93.7%
MIN 90, LAL 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.72,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.57,0.71,0.73,0.79,0.92,0.9,0.86,0.99,1,1,1	93.4%
MIL 109, UTA 116	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.68,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.77,0.92,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.3%