NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	76		Excitement	3.0 [1207]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +11.0%
San Antonio Spurs	97		Comeback	1.0 [1314]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): -11.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	14	50%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	7	44%	0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ronald Dupree	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	12	42%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Richard Hamilton	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	15	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	6	60%	-0.01	3	-0.04	3	33%	-0.02
Tayshaun Prince	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	0.00	-0.02	7	20%	-0.06	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.00	0.02	14	45%	-0.04	4	-0.08	1	100%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.13	0.00	0.02	8	93%	0.15	3	-0.04	13	85%	0.02
Tony Parker	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	9	63%	0.07	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.03	10	62%	0.06	2	-0.03	9	89%	0.02
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	13	54%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	4	70%	0.04	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	10	55%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Devin Brown	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.01	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	3	0%	-0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.2	3.6	32.3	20.3	26.5	3.6	35.5	153.9
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +36.5%

SAS +16.5%

DET -9.1%

SAS +1.7%

SAS +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SAS	NBA	DET	SAS	NBA
this game	17.2	17.1	15.5	89.4	116.9	104.0
season	16.7	16.3		103.5	105.8
opponent	15.6	15.9		98.4	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.5	16.9	16.5	18.1	17.2
SAS	15.3	15.1	17.0	21.9	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronald Dupree	6	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-21	21	15.3	17.3	-2.00	18.2	17.0	1.15
Darko Milicic	6	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-21	21	15.3	17.3	-2.00	18.2	17.0	1.15
Darvin Ham	4	4	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.10	-5	-16	11	9.2	17.6	-8.33	18.0	17.1	0.95
Carlos Arroyo	17	16	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-18	15	13.4	18.1	-4.72	14.1	17.8	-3.76
Lindsey Hunter	46	45	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.11	0	-21	21	15.8	18.8	-2.97	16.6	17.7	-1.13
Antonio McDyess	48	45	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.15	-13	-8	-5	15.7	19.2	-3.50	15.5	18.9	-3.41
Rasheed Wallace	57	57	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.01	-9	-12	3	17.7	16.1	1.61	17.8	15.6	2.21
Tayshaun Prince	55	52	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.16	-19	-2	-17	18.7	14.4	4.36	17.7	16.0	1.75
Richard Hamilton	62	62	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.12	-18	-3	-15	16.6	18.7	-2.01	16.9	17.8	-0.89
Chauncey Billups	66	65	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	0.14	-21	0	-21	18.8	11.7	7.02	17.8	14.6	3.17
Ben Wallace	58	57	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.02	-17	-4	-13	18.4	14.6	3.75	17.5	16.3	1.20

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	53	55	0.47	0.03	0.43	-0.27	25	-4	29	17.8	15.8	2.08	18.1	15.5	2.66
Tim Duncan	63	63	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.20	20	1	19	17.2	16.8	0.32	16.8	18.3	-1.52
Bruce Bowen	63	63	0.39	0.11	0.27	-0.17	19	2	17	17.1	17.0	0.13	17.5	16.4	1.05
Nazr Mohammed	44	44	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.13	7	14	-7	17.2	17.0	0.23	18.9	15.4	3.52
Tony Parker	47	49	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.03	10	11	-1	16.9	17.4	-0.52	19.0	14.8	4.18
Robert Horry	49	52	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.20	16	5	11	16.9	17.4	-0.53	16.9	17.6	-0.63
Beno Udrih	32	32	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.15	11	10	1	17.6	16.8	0.81	14.8	18.6	-3.81
Brent Barry	46	48	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.18	-1	22	-23	16.3	18.1	-1.78	16.0	18.8	-2.78
Glenn Robinson	4	5	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.03	-1	22	-23	15.7	17.2	-1.41	12.0	17.5	-5.51
Devin Brown	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	22	-23	15.7	17.2	-1.41	14.5	17.3	-2.82
Tony Massenburg	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	21	-21	15.7	17.2	-1.41	14.5	17.3	-2.82
Rasho Nesterovic	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	21	-21	18.2	17.0	1.15	15.3	17.3	-2.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.88,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.82,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.95,0.93,0.89,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 79, POR 94	0.5,0.49,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.7,0.64,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.89,0.9,0.84,0.86,0.89,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
LAC 84, HOU 110	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.65,0.72,0.68,0.75,0.68,0.66,0.73,0.73,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%
UTA 88, DEN 110	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.8,0.87,0.83,0.88,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%