NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	88		Excitement	7.8 [314]		MVP	Rasheed Wallace (DET): +22.2%
Miami Heat	82		Comeback	5.2 [146]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -41.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasheed Wallace	0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.11,0.22	0.07	0.14	-0.01	13	71%	0.28	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.07
Richard Hamilton	0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2	0.10	0.11	0.01	16	69%	0.25	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	15	49%	0.04	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.05
Antonio McDyess	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	6	50%	-0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.07	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	9	40%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.06
Lindsey Hunter	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	5	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.15	-0.04	-0.10	0.01	13	46%	-0.08	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Elden Campbell	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.08	-0.12	0.00	2	17%	-0.09	2	-0.12	2	50%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.09,0.01,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.05	-0.00	19	61%	0.18	5	-0.14	6	50%	-0.08
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.00	6	68%	0.04	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	83%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Steven Smith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.02	12	42%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.11	-0.01	2	17%	-0.08	1	-0.08	2	50%	-0.06
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.32,-0.41	-0.41	-0.16	-0.27	-0.01	20	43%	-0.23	5	-0.19	7	86%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	3.6	34.6	19.6	27.5	3.6	40.8	154.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +18.8%

DET +1.7%

DET +22.9%

DET +4.0%

DET +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	17.5	15.8	15.5	102.3	94.3	104.0
season	16.7	15.7		103.5	107.9
opponent	15.5	15.9		101.1	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.6	17.5	17.4	16.8	17.5
MIA	16.6	16.0	17.7	13.3	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Wallace	71	70	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.47	6	0	6	17.5	17.6	-0.06	15.9	15.2	0.65
Richard Hamilton	86	87	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	17.5	0.0	17.55	15.8	0.0	15.76
Chauncey Billups	75	76	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.33	5	1	4	17.2	19.9	-2.71	15.6	16.7	-1.11
Tayshaun Prince	76	77	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.37	3	3	0	17.7	16.3	1.41	15.1	20.9	-5.81
Elden Campbell	15	13	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.22	7	-1	8	16.7	17.7	-0.98	16.1	15.7	0.37
Rasheed Wallace	61	66	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.14	-4	10	-14	18.1	16.2	1.90	15.4	17.0	-1.57
Antonio McDyess	23	22	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	2	2	18.1	17.3	0.74	18.0	15.0	3.00
Lindsey Hunter	23	24	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.12	3	3	0	16.7	17.9	-1.16	16.8	15.4	1.43

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keyon Dooling	27	27	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.17	-5	-1	-4	18.2	14.7	3.52	18.0	17.3	0.72
Rasual Butler	21	19	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.11	-3	-3	0	16.6	15.5	1.13	14.6	18.4	-3.81
Steven Smith	1	1	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-6	6	3.0	15.9	-12.91	1.0	17.7	-16.74
Alonzo Mourning	18	18	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.15	-12	6	-18	18.5	15.0	3.46	17.9	17.5	0.43
Udonis Haslem	79	80	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.41	3	-9	12	15.9	14.6	1.25	18.0	11.2	6.86
Damon Jones	61	60	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.46	2	-8	10	14.4	18.8	-4.40	17.0	18.7	-1.70
Dwyane Wade	78	77	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	-2	-2	15.3	19.4	-4.11	18.4	10.6	7.81
Eddie Jones	77	77	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.34	-7	1	-8	15.7	16.5	-0.84	17.3	20.0	-2.74
Shaquille O'Neal	73	71	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.45	-4	-2	-2	15.6	16.4	-0.71	17.6	17.2	0.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.29,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.73,0.79,0.71,0.66,0.45,0.45,0.68,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 106, IND 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.58,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.34,0.39,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.3,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.73,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.45,0.57,0.27,0	91.4%
SAS 93, DEN 91	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.83,0.73,0.79,0.65,0.47,0.31,0.45,0.68,0.29,0	90.9%
NOP 101, OKC 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.32,0.36,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.81,0.72,0.53,0.45,0.33,0.16,0	90.6%