NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	91		Excitement	3.8 [1078]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +10.7%
San Antonio Spurs	108		Comeback	1.1 [1146]		LVP	Reggie Evans (SEA): -10.2%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.01	-0.04	14	66%	0.13	3	-0.04	10	100%	0.04
Nick Collison	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	6	69%	0.05	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Jerome James	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	9	40%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.07	11	64%	-0.00	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	0.04	19	50%	-0.03	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.02
Ronald Murray	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	0.00	-0.02	8	25%	-0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.12	-0.00	-0.02	4	10%	-0.07	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.01	-0.00	11	87%	0.19	5	-0.09	10	80%	0.01
Brent Barry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	6	64%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	20	58%	0.08	3	-0.05	3	33%	-0.02
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	15	58%	0.05	2	-0.03	8	100%	0.02
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	5	33%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Devin Brown	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.02	1	67%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	6	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	0.00	0.04	7	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	3.6	33.0	18.8	30.1	3.4	35.5	148.4
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +38.9%

SEA -1.6%

SEA -2.1%

SAS +13.2%

SAS +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	SAS	NBA	SEA	SAS	NBA
this game	16.7	15.5	15.5	101.1	121.3	104.0
season	16.5	16.3		109.5	105.8
opponent	15.6	15.6		98.4	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	19.2	14.9	16.8	16.0	16.7
SAS	14.2	15.8	14.5	17.5	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Fortson	15	16	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.03	-6	-11	5	15.8	16.9	-1.09	12.9	16.0	-3.08
Reggie Evans	43	43	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.04	-5	-12	7	17.0	16.4	0.55	16.6	14.4	2.12
Antonio Daniels	63	63	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	-14	11	15.5	19.6	-4.17	14.9	16.9	-2.07
Ronald Murray	47	47	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	-13	9	16.0	17.5	-1.58	15.1	15.9	-0.84
Nick Collison	30	30	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.06	-6	-11	5	18.4	15.9	2.53	14.5	15.9	-1.45
Jerome James	45	43	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.19	-16	-1	-15	16.5	16.9	-0.40	16.0	14.9	1.09
Luke Ridnour	41	40	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.10	-16	-1	-15	19.9	14.1	5.82	17.7	13.6	4.11
Ray Allen	80	79	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.02	-15	-2	-13	16.0	22.1	-6.06	15.4	15.7	-0.27
Rashard Lewis	86	84	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.02	-14	-3	-11	16.7	17.2	-0.56	15.1	22.2	-7.14

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nazr Mohammed	43	43	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.13	19	-2	21	16.1	14.8	1.27	17.2	16.3	0.91
Tony Parker	69	70	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.10	11	6	5	15.7	14.7	0.98	16.7	16.9	-0.24
Glenn Robinson	38	38	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.04	10	7	3	13.8	16.7	-2.92	17.3	16.3	1.05
Brent Barry	59	59	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.12	7	10	-3	16.1	14.3	1.75	18.1	14.1	4.04
Manu Ginobili	59	59	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.03	10	7	3	15.9	14.6	1.30	16.0	18.1	-2.11
Tim Duncan	67	66	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.10	5	12	-7	16.2	13.3	2.85	17.4	14.9	2.45
Robert Horry	47	47	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.01	8	9	-1	14.8	16.2	-1.43	15.9	17.6	-1.76
Beno Udrih	23	24	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.11	8	9	-1	14.3	15.9	-1.62	17.9	16.3	1.64
Bruce Bowen	28	30	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.10	-1	18	-19	18.0	14.3	3.65	17.0	16.6	0.43
Devin Brown	4	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	15	-13	7.2	15.8	-8.60	8.0	17.2	-9.22
Tony Massenburg	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	13	-9	7.2	15.8	-8.60	8.5	17.1	-8.59
Rasho Nesterovic	4	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	15	-13	7.2	15.8	-8.60	8.0	17.2	-9.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.68,0.7,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.8,0.86,0.84,0.78,0.8,0.75,0.73,0.82,0.89,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.86,0.79,0.9,0.86,0.83,0.88,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 85, SAS 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.72,0.76,0.8,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.8,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.77,0.87,0.89,0.86,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1	96.3%
PHI 93, LAL 119	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.61,0.67,0.74,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.82,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.73,0.78,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
MIL 93, BKN 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.65,0.69,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.77,0.83,0.9,0.86,0.83,0.87,0.8,0.75,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.87,0.85,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1	96.0%