NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	102		Excitement	6.0 [659]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +12.7%
Miami Heat	108		Comeback	1.3 [1076]		LVP	Larry Hughes (WAS): -22.6%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antawn Jamison	0.07	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07	0.12	-0.01	0.04	22	63%	0.08	1	-0.01	7	86%	0.01
Etan Thomas	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Dixon	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	11	45%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	19	58%	0.05	4	-0.10	10	70%	-0.02
Brendan Haywood	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	10	39%	-0.03	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Jared Jeffries	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	7	14%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	1	0%	-0.09	1	-0.03	4	0%	-0.06
Larry Hughes	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.28,-0.3,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.26,-0.23,-0.24,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.21,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23	-0.16	-0.04	0.03	17	37%	-0.15	3	-0.08	7	71%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.02	0.02	13	78%	0.17	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Damon Jones	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.05	-0.00	10	67%	0.14	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	4	62%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Udonis Haslem	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	9	61%	0.09	4	-0.10	5	80%	0.01
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	11	53%	0.03	3	-0.06	8	50%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.10	-0.01	-0.05	15	63%	0.09	7	-0.14	19	58%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.8	38.8	18.7	29.3	3.6	39.7	161.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +74.2%

WAS -5.2%

WAS -13.5%

WAS -8.2%

MIA +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIA	NBA	WAS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	14.6	15.5	107.4	112.5	104.0
season	14.7	15.7		104.7	107.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		101.1	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	17.3	15.9	17.5	12.2	15.6
MIA	14.0	14.1	15.2	15.0	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Etan Thomas	11	11	0.22	-0.72	0.95	-0.13	12	-18	30	15.4	15.6	-0.26	17.1	14.2	2.84
Anthony Peeler	3	3	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-6	6	8.7	15.8	-7.15	5.3	14.9	-9.54
Juan Dixon	53	54	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.41	8	-14	22	13.9	17.7	-3.85	14.9	14.2	0.64
Antawn Jamison	82	82	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.30	3	-9	12	15.4	17.1	-1.72	14.5	15.1	-0.58
Jared Jeffries	53	53	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.10	-9	3	-12	16.5	14.5	1.95	15.0	14.0	0.95
Michael Ruffin	45	47	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.14	-9	3	-12	16.2	15.0	1.20	13.3	15.8	-2.50
Brendan Haywood	60	60	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	0.02	-16	10	-26	16.1	14.8	1.30	14.8	14.1	0.69
Gilbert Arenas	92	93	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.34	-4	-2	-2	15.3	24.0	-8.68	14.6	12.3	2.31
Larry Hughes	76	77	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.21	-15	9	-24	16.3	12.7	3.63	14.7	14.2	0.45

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	89	88	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.21	12	-6	18	14.2	18.7	-4.47	15.5	16.6	-1.06
Dwyane Wade	84	82	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	-1	8	14.0	18.7	-4.77	15.7	15.2	0.50
Damon Jones	74	74	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.21	8	-2	10	14.2	15.9	-1.73	15.5	15.9	-0.34
Udonis Haslem	87	87	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.33	2	4	-2	15.2	8.6	6.64	15.4	17.1	-1.68
Alonzo Mourning	16	17	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.02	10	-4	14	11.4	15.2	-3.84	16.9	15.3	1.65
Keyon Dooling	33	32	0.17	0.34	-0.17	0.19	-1	7	-8	15.9	13.9	2.08	15.5	15.6	-0.13
Shaquille O'Neal	72	72	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.27	-4	10	-14	15.5	11.7	3.88	15.4	16.0	-0.60
Christian Laettner	7	6	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	2	2	10.3	14.9	-4.62	19.7	15.3	4.35
Michael Doleac	8	6	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.03	0	6	-6	12.2	14.8	-2.53	13.5	15.7	-2.23
Rasual Butler	10	11	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.07	-8	14	-22	18.5	14.1	4.38	15.4	15.6	-0.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.69,0.6,0.53,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.64,0.52,0.61,0.62,0.71,0.65,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.97,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 82, UTA 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.73,0.77,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
ORL 107, IND 117	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.69,0.66,0.78,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.81,0.85,0.85,0.81,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.97,1,1	94.3%
SAC 98, DET 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.62,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.69,0.76,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.56,0.64,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.7,0.73,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.87,0.79,0.81,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%