NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	105		Excitement	6.0 [607]		MVP	Peja Stojakovic (SAC): +28.1%
Sacramento Kings	116		Comeback	1.8 [781]		LVP	Marquis Daniels (DAL): -19.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.21	0.04	0.05	19	76%	0.24	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Antawn Jamison	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	0.03	0.06	10	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Josh Howard	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.02	8	61%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shawn Bradley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	-0.03	-0.07	11	35%	-0.00	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Steve Nash	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	14	43%	0.01	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	13	35%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.17	-0.06	-0.03	15	39%	-0.05	6	-0.15	3	33%	-0.02

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.20	0.10	0.01	16	80%	0.30	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Chris Webber	0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.05	-0.02	19	62%	0.16	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	14	60%	0.11	1	-0.03	7	71%	-0.01
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.01	0.02	7	79%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	8	67%	0.08	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Smith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Buford	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	0.03	-0.02	14	41%	-0.02	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	3	25%	-0.06	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	3.5	34.4	18.3	24.5	3.7	30.3	139.1
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +51.6%

SAC +0.2%

DAL -11.5%

SAC +8.9%

SAC +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAC	NBA	DAL	SAC	NBA
this game	15.0	15.5	15.7	111.7	122.1	100.5
season	14.6	14.7		109.2	106.9
opponent	15.6	15.6		102.0	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.7	14.1	15.8	15.6	15.0
SAC	15.3	14.7	15.5	16.3	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marquis Daniels	85	82	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.05	-3	-8	5	14.6	19.3	-4.77	15.5	14.8	0.70
Shawn Bradley	2	3	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.11	2	-13	15	10.5	15.1	-4.62	16.0	15.4	0.57
Eduardo Najera	15	17	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.17	2	-13	15	16.5	14.7	1.80	15.0	15.6	-0.55
Michael Finley	76	76	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.03	-6	-5	-1	14.5	17.2	-2.72	15.7	14.3	1.42
Antawn Jamison	38	40	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	-7	3	14.6	15.3	-0.70	14.9	15.9	-0.95
Josh Howard	45	45	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.26	-5	-6	1	14.6	15.4	-0.81	14.6	16.2	-1.54
Dirk Nowitzki	83	83	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.03	-14	3	-17	15.6	11.0	4.55	15.3	16.2	-0.82
Antoine Walker	54	55	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.06	-13	2	-15	15.4	14.5	0.82	15.5	15.4	0.09
Steve Nash	72	74	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.04	-14	3	-17	15.5	13.4	2.16	16.0	13.5	2.54

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Peja Stojakovic	90	90	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.03	19	-8	27	15.4	16.0	-0.58	15.3	8.5	6.81
Mike Bibby	76	77	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.01	19	-8	27	15.4	15.7	-0.36	15.4	13.3	2.11
Doug Christie	86	86	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.15	10	1	9	15.5	15.0	0.50	15.2	12.7	2.48
Anthony Peeler	40	39	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.24	4	7	-3	15.4	15.5	-0.05	14.8	15.1	-0.30
Chris Webber	81	80	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.14	17	-6	23	15.5	14.9	0.61	14.7	16.6	-1.82
Brad Miller	36	37	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.07	6	5	1	16.8	14.6	2.18	15.9	14.5	1.39
Gerald Wallace	10	8	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.15	-4	15	-19	14.0	15.6	-1.62	14.7	15.0	-0.30
Vlade Divac	42	40	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.03	2	9	-7	15.0	15.8	-0.77	14.9	15.1	-0.17
Jabari Smith	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	15	-19	16.5	15.4	1.07	7.0	15.1	-8.11
Rodney Buford	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	15	-19	16.5	15.4	1.07	7.0	15.1	-8.11
Darius Songaila	10	11	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.17	-10	21	-31	13.2	15.7	-2.52	10.1	15.7	-5.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.53,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.7,0.75,0.83,0.81,0.92,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 74, NYK 92	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.56,0.45,0.59,0.56,0.41,0.48,0.54,0.74,0.82,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%
HOU 79, DET 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.65,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.5,0.52,0.67,0.84,0.81,0.87,0.96,0.94,0.99,0.95,0.98,0.99,1	94.3%
LAC 77, BOS 99	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.79,0.9,0.9,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%