NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	103		Excitement	5.7 [644]		MVP	Steve Nash (DAL): +9.7%
San Antonio Spurs	91		Comeback	15.4 [13]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -11.3%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Nash	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	-0.00	0.09	-0.01	11	56%	0.13	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08	0.14	-0.02	0.04	14	77%	0.15	2	-0.07	12	100%	0.04
Eduardo Najera	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	8	58%	0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Nick Van Exel	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.08	0.10	-0.00	20	47%	0.10	4	-0.08	5	100%	0.01
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walt Williams	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	13	46%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	3	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	12	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	15	55%	0.02	1	-0.02	12	42%	-0.09
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	9	64%	0.06	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Kevin Willis	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	3	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.01	7	60%	-0.03	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	9	28%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	3	42%	-0.06	2	-0.03	6	50%	-0.02
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.04	-0.10	0.03	13	67%	0.05	3	-0.14	4	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.02	-0.02	11	29%	-0.08	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	3.7	36.4	19.6	32.2	3.6	33.2	156.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +31.2%

DAL +2.5%

DAL +9.6%

DAL +8.4%

SAS -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	17.1	14.9	15.5	114.4	101.1	101.6
season	15.1	15.7		108.6	102.5
opponent	15.4	15.3		96.9	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	18.4	16.5	15.4	18.2	17.1
SAS	15.0	13.0	15.2	16.9	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eduardo Najera	61	61	0.78	-0.28	1.06	-0.01	27	-15	42	16.8	17.8	-0.99	15.7	13.2	2.51
Nick Van Exel	74	74	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.26	11	1	10	17.0	17.3	-0.27	15.1	14.1	0.96
Raef LaFrentz	45	45	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.29	4	8	-4	17.2	16.9	0.31	14.7	15.1	-0.40
Michael Finley	84	83	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.11	9	3	6	16.9	19.5	-2.58	14.8	16.0	-1.18
Steve Nash	61	62	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.31	2	10	-8	18.4	14.4	3.95	15.6	13.4	2.15
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	28	28	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.09	9	3	6	14.0	18.5	-4.48	13.7	15.5	-1.74
Walt Williams	60	60	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.03	0	12	-12	17.4	16.4	0.98	14.2	16.3	-2.03
Raja Bell	26	27	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.15	4	8	-4	16.2	17.5	-1.31	14.8	15.0	-0.14
Adrian Griffin	11	10	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.05	-6	18	-24	21.1	16.5	4.56	13.9	15.0	-1.14

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Speedy Claxton	19	18	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.14	7	-19	26	14.6	15.0	-0.42	20.9	16.1	4.75
Kevin Willis	2	2	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-13	14	9.0	15.0	-6.05	22.0	17.0	5.02
Malik Rose	52	51	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.04	-5	-7	2	13.5	16.8	-3.30	18.1	15.7	2.42
Manu Ginobili	37	37	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.19	3	-15	18	15.5	14.5	1.02	18.5	16.1	2.47
Stephen Jackson	70	70	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.01	-8	-4	-4	14.5	16.2	-1.72	16.5	19.0	-2.46
David Robinson	44	44	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.20	-3	-9	6	16.2	13.7	2.44	15.8	18.3	-2.44
Tony Parker	71	72	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.01	-19	7	-26	15.0	14.6	0.42	16.1	20.9	-4.75
Tim Duncan	82	83	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.12	-17	5	-22	15.3	11.2	4.02	17.0	18.3	-1.30
Bruce Bowen	73	73	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.11	-19	7	-26	15.0	14.6	0.33	16.9	18.0	-1.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.81,0.88,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.83,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.88,0.93,0.89,0.87,0.89,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.75,0.78,0.72,0.62,0.67,0.58,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.1,0.07,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 126, POR 122	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.77,0.85,0.89,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.82,0.84,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.83,0.88,0.85,0.77,0.72,0.83,0.89,0.91,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.53,0.35,0.18,0.14,0.01,0.01,0,0	94.7%
HOU 119, POR 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.73,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.86,0.87,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.91,0.86,0.89,0.85,0.78,0.66,0.71,0.62,0.63,0.41,0.2,0.28,0.1,0.05,0.05,0,0	93.8%
DAL 102, PHX 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.73,0.79,0.78,0.87,0.86,0.83,0.86,0.83,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.66,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.2,0.17,0.1,0.02,0.01,0,0	92.1%