NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	73		Excitement	4.0 [991]		MVP	Eddie Robinson (CHH): +10.2%
Charlotte Hornets	83		Comeback	1.4 [1046]		LVP	P.J. Brown (MIA): -7.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	9	54%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Duane Causwell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.02	13	54%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Tim James	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	1	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	2	67%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.02	0.02	11	67%	0.09	5	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Mark Strickland	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	6	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	7	43%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	6	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Buford	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	0.04	6	50%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	8	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.00	7	87%	0.12	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Anthony Mason	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.04	-0.03	12	58%	0.09	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	7	43%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	4	60%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	87%	0.03	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	8	58%	0.03	2	-0.04	8	100%	0.02
Derrick Coleman	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	12	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	12	42%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.2	2.4	25.4	16.4	22.6	1.8	27.3	116.1
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +38.9%

CHH +7.8%

MIA -8.9%

CHH +11.7%

CHH +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHH	NBA	MIA	CHH	NBA
this game	18.0	17.8	15.2	90.1	103.8	101.7
season	15.7	14.9		101.2	101.5
opponent	15.1	15.9		99.2	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.6	19.9	17.2	18.1	18.0
CHH	18.6	14.4	22.8	16.1	17.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Majerle	29	30	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.10	10	-20	30	16.9	18.6	-1.68	20.6	16.1	4.48
Alonzo Mourning	37	39	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.15	8	-18	26	17.7	18.2	-0.50	18.6	17.0	1.54
Tim James	8	8	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.05	1	-11	12	13.9	18.4	-4.55	16.7	17.9	-1.17
Duane Causwell	11	11	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.09	2	-12	14	15.8	18.3	-2.50	16.1	18.1	-1.98
Jamal Mashburn	56	55	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.16	1	-11	12	18.1	17.6	0.54	18.3	16.8	1.45
P.J. Brown	50	50	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.15	0	-10	10	18.4	17.4	1.01	18.4	16.9	1.49
Rodney Buford	25	25	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.12	-2	-8	6	18.3	17.8	0.50	13.6	19.7	-6.05
Mark Strickland	25	22	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.04	-6	-4	-2	17.5	18.2	-0.66	16.3	18.4	-2.11
Anthony Carter	64	65	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.20	-7	-3	-4	17.8	18.6	-0.85	18.5	14.8	3.69
Bruce Bowen	32	30	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.02	-17	7	-24	17.9	18.0	-0.17	17.5	18.0	-0.43
Otis Thorpe	27	26	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.08	-21	11	-32	18.6	17.7	0.87	17.8	17.8	0.01
Clar. Weatherspoon	41	39	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.05	-19	9	-28	19.7	16.2	3.51	16.8	18.8	-2.01

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	45	46	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.08	18	-8	26	15.6	20.6	-4.93	19.0	16.6	2.42
Baron Davis	42	42	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.12	14	-4	18	15.3	20.6	-5.29	19.0	16.9	2.13
Eddie Robinson	40	41	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.12	14	-4	18	15.0	20.6	-5.55	18.9	17.0	1.83
Anthony Mason	71	72	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.17	8	2	6	18.7	10.8	7.91	17.6	21.3	-3.78
Eddie Jones	61	61	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.23	0	10	-10	19.0	13.8	5.26	17.4	19.6	-2.22
Derrick Coleman	54	55	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.06	4	6	-2	18.3	16.7	1.64	17.9	18.1	-0.21
Elden Campbell	49	49	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.16	-4	14	-18	18.6	16.5	2.10	17.6	18.5	-0.92
David Wesley	38	39	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.08	-4	14	-18	20.6	15.3	5.29	16.9	19.0	-2.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.78,0.73,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.89,0.94,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 95, MIA 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.74,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.84,0.79,0.84,0.87,0.81,0.76,0.82,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.7,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.7%
CLE 95, WAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.76,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.86,0.82,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.83,0.81,0.77,0.71,0.72,0.63,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.81,0.85,0.94,0.98,0.95,0.98,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.6%
MIL 70, ATL 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.67,0.66,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.7,0.78,0.8,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.82,0.68,0.68,0.8,0.74,0.68,0.74,0.82,0.82,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.6%