NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	116		Excitement	11.2 [26]		MVP	James Posey (DEN): +38.1%
Denver Nuggets	115		Comeback	3.8 [222]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): -50.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.36	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.29,0.12,0.12,0.36	0.16	0.20	0.00	16	78%	0.60	2	-0.24	9	78%	0.02
Hubert Davis	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	-0.02	0.24	0.00	15	43%	0.24	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.08	0.00	11	68%	0.21	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0.11	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,0.06,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.11	-0.12	0.18	-0.05	23	43%	0.18	3	-0.07	8	100%	0.07
Sean Rooks	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	62%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shawn Bradley	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.05	-0.06	0.02	7	73%	0.06	1	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Erick Strickland	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	0.01	-0.12	-0.00	12	53%	-0.10	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Greg Buckner	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	3	12%	-0.09	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.18,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38	0.38	0.10	0.29	0.00	9	77%	0.40	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.07
Chris Herren	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.02	0.00	11	69%	0.14	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.23,-0.23,-0.1,0.06	0.06	-0.07	0.12	-0.01	16	50%	0.26	4	-0.19	4	50%	-0.03
Popeye Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	100%	0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	67%	0.06	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.07
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	4	80%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.01	16	62%	0.08	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.13
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	4	50%	0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13,-0.13,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.51	-0.51	-0.06	-0.45	-0.00	18	44%	-0.47	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.8	2.7	27.1	15.3	26.6	1.6	36.6	1.7	14.2	148.7
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	1.7	18.2	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +60.8%

DEN -16.3%

DEN -1.8%

DEN -5.2%

DAL +12.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DEN	NBA	DAL	DEN	NBA
this game	17.8	15.2	15.2	119.6	119.8	101.7
season	14.8	14.8		104.2	101.5
opponent	15.0	14.8		103.7	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DAL	15.9	19.0	15.8	18.7	24.3	17.8
DEN	13.4	13.8	17.0	15.6	18.6	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Strickland	78	79	0.96	-0.46	1.42	0.64	11	-10	21	18.0	16.7	1.35	15.4	14.0	1.42
Dirk Nowitzki	82	81	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.42	11	-10	21	17.5	19.4	-1.92	16.0	10.9	5.02
Michael Finley	89	87	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.42	1	0	1	17.7	19.1	-1.47	14.9	17.4	-2.51
Hubert Davis	48	48	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.32	0	1	-1	17.3	18.2	-0.87	14.9	15.4	-0.50
Greg Buckner	23	22	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.41	-9	10	-19	17.2	18.0	-0.79	13.7	15.6	-1.93
Steve Nash	87	86	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.00	0	1	-1	17.1	23.8	-6.72	15.0	16.2	-1.15
Sean Rooks	17	17	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.01	-10	11	-21	20.4	17.2	3.13	13.6	15.5	-1.92
Shawn Bradley	55	53	-0.45	0.95	-1.39	-0.45	0	1	-1	18.0	17.5	0.52	15.1	15.3	-0.20

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	52	52	0.41	-0.91	1.32	0.06	12	-13	25	13.9	16.7	-2.76	18.1	17.4	0.74
Keon Clark	41	43	0.12	-0.62	0.73	0.06	2	-3	5	15.6	14.9	0.73	19.4	16.5	2.96
Ryan Bowen	12	13	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.03	4	-5	9	10.1	15.9	-5.81	18.0	17.7	0.26
Popeye Jones	12	11	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.03	1	-2	3	12.5	15.5	-3.05	16.2	18.0	-1.79
Raef LaFrentz	33	34	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.03	-3	2	-5	15.0	15.2	-0.21	15.1	19.2	-4.13
Chris Gatling	30	29	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.01	-12	11	-23	16.0	14.8	1.26	16.4	18.3	-1.89
George McCloud	78	78	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.53	5	-6	11	15.1	15.6	-0.48	17.9	17.3	0.63
Antonio McDyess	84	86	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.44	-2	1	-3	15.5	12.5	3.05	18.0	16.2	1.79
Chris Herren	54	54	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.58	-1	0	-1	15.3	15.0	0.21	17.6	18.0	-0.37
Nick Van Exel	77	78	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.35	-10	9	-19	16.0	11.7	4.34	17.7	18.2	-0.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.32,0.21,0.12,0.22,0.47,0.54,0.66,0.27,0.46,0.47,0.36,0.32,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 106, BOS 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.3,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.25,0.23,0.37,0.45,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.32,0.26,0.35,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.45,0.28,0.54,0.38,0.28,0.43,0.04,0	90.0%
MIA 98, SEA 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.33,0.35,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.31,0.27,0.36,0.3,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.45,0.43,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.56,0.47,0.36,0.41,0.28,0.53,0.45,0.41,0.27,0.46,0.25,0.22,0.15,0.08,0	88.0%
IND 106, MIA 100	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.48,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.31,0.35,0.27,0.38,0.63,0.71,0.58,0.54,0.32,0.37,0.33,0.27,0	87.9%