NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	70		Excitement	5.9 [624]		MVP	Dan Majerle (MIA): +20.9%
Miami Heat	76		Comeback	1.1 [1004]		LVP	Derrick Coleman (CHH): -39.1%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Robinson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.02	5	83%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Anthony Mason	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	10	54%	-0.00	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Baron Davis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	5	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Elden Campbell	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.01	12	33%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.06	-0.05	0.05	16	35%	-0.16	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Eddie Jones	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.18	-0.03	0.00	15	31%	-0.18	2	-0.03	9	89%	0.00
Derrick Coleman	-0.39	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23,-0.3,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36,-0.39,-0.39,-0.39,-0.39,-0.39	-0.26	-0.15	-0.02	18	20%	-0.28	3	-0.11	4	25%	-0.05

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.09	0.10	-0.02	7	86%	0.21	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.07	0.06	-0.00	6	75%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.02	0.03	21	57%	0.08	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	0.00	3	71%	0.04	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	4	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	0.01	8	25%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.06	0.01	9	45%	-0.05	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.20	-0.04	-0.02	10	27%	-0.10	6	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	26.2	15.8	23.4	2.6	29.5	123.1
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +81.6%

CHH -17.2%

CHH -4.2%

CHH -12.2%

MIA +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	MIA	NBA	CHH	MIA	NBA
this game	18.0	16.3	15.2	83.3	90.5	101.7
season	14.9	15.7		101.5	101.2
opponent	15.9	15.1		98.2	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	17.8	19.9	16.7	17.7	18.0
MIA	15.0	16.1	17.6	16.6	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elden Campbell	63	63	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.25	2	-8	10	17.3	20.0	-2.67	16.9	14.4	2.48
Eddie Robinson	26	27	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.21	0	-6	6	16.8	18.5	-1.73	17.6	15.6	1.98
David Wesley	68	68	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.23	-2	-4	2	17.9	18.4	-0.46	15.7	18.9	-3.20
Baron Davis	32	31	-0.34	-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-7	1	-8	19.9	16.8	3.08	17.2	15.7	1.49
Derrick Coleman	71	71	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.20	-9	3	-12	18.0	17.8	0.18	15.7	19.6	-3.94
Anthony Mason	82	82	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.32	-6	0	-6	18.1	15.0	3.07	16.2	18.5	-2.27
Eddie Jones	78	78	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.28	-8	2	-10	18.1	16.3	1.79	16.1	18.8	-2.74

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	70	70	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.38	6	0	6	16.0	17.5	-1.46	18.4	16.2	2.14
Tim Hardaway	60	59	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.32	4	2	2	15.9	17.3	-1.41	18.5	16.9	1.54
Jamal Mashburn	61	62	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.38	0	6	-6	15.8	17.5	-1.70	17.6	19.2	-1.66
Dan Majerle	56	58	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.21	4	2	2	15.6	17.6	-1.93	17.4	19.3	-1.89
P.J. Brown	53	52	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.12	7	-1	8	15.7	17.3	-1.59	17.7	18.4	-0.66
Bruce Bowen	34	33	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.12	4	2	2	17.6	15.4	2.24	20.0	16.7	3.29
Clar. Weatherspoon	27	26	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.10	2	4	-2	16.7	16.1	0.67	18.7	17.7	1.00
Anthony Carter	24	25	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.00	2	4	-2	17.3	15.9	1.41	16.9	18.5	-1.54
Otis Thorpe	35	35	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.00	1	5	-4	17.9	15.2	2.69	17.0	18.7	-1.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.7,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.72,0.69,0.81,0.87,0.92,0.99,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 98, BOS 114	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.7,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1	95.4%
LAL 74, HOU 84	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.7,0.7,0.64,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.64,0.74,0.81,0.74,0.8,0.77,0.86,0.92,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.86,0.96,1	94.7%
CLE 105, UTA 113	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.85,0.83,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.97,1,0.99,1	94.4%