NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	90		Excitement	4.8 [830]		MVP	Jaren Jackson (SAS): +11.2%
San Antonio Spurs	102		Comeback	2.4 [1178]		LVP	Larry Hughes (GSW): -19.2%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vonteego Cummings	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	6	64%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bill Curley	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Sam Jacobson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	9	56%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mookie Blaylock	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	17	53%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Adonal Foyle	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	7	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Tony Farmer	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	3	67%	-0.02	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
Mark Davis	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.12	-0.01	-0.04	7	14%	-0.07	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	16	39%	-0.06	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Larry Hughes	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.11	-0.06	0.02	19	42%	-0.07	4	-0.12	2	50%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.00	-0.01	8	78%	0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	8	72%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Elie	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	5	58%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	2	83%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Felton Spencer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	16	47%	-0.01	1	-0.01	8	87%	0.02
David Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	24	47%	-0.00	2	-0.07	9	78%	-0.00
Sean Elliott	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	6	31%	-0.09	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.04	0.03	3	100%	0.03	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.8	1.8	27.2	17.7	27.3	2.5	32.4	139.7
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +35.2%

SAS +2.7%

SAS +7.1%

SAS +2.2%

SAS +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SAS	NBA	GSW	SAS	NBA
this game	15.2	16.4	15.2	98.9	112.1	101.7
season	14.7	15.5		97.2	101.6
opponent	15.4	14.7		95.9	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.8	14.1	15.4	17.9	15.2
SAS	18.9	16.5	13.4	17.2	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Farmer	46	44	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.18	9	-21	30	15.0	15.5	-0.44	16.9	15.9	0.97
Sam Jacobson	25	25	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.13	2	-14	16	16.2	14.9	1.32	16.3	16.4	-0.12
Vonteego Cummings	20	21	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.08	-7	-5	-2	13.5	15.7	-2.17	17.4	16.1	1.27
Bill Curley	13	11	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.01	-4	-8	4	17.2	14.9	2.32	20.3	15.9	4.40
Mookie Blaylock	72	72	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.14	-8	-4	-4	15.8	12.9	2.90	16.4	16.3	0.18
Adonal Foyle	78	80	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.14	-8	-4	-4	14.9	17.2	-2.32	15.9	20.3	-4.40
Jason Caffey	75	75	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.16	-9	-3	-6	15.0	16.2	-1.22	16.1	17.7	-1.63
Larry Hughes	88	89	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	-1	-10	15.5	8.0	7.49	16.7	3.0	13.71
Mark Davis	38	38	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	0.12	-24	12	-36	14.5	15.8	-1.32	15.1	17.3	-2.19

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome Kersey	49	51	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.07	15	-3	18	17.7	14.9	2.88	16.3	13.8	2.48
Tim Duncan	75	74	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.20	8	4	4	16.7	14.8	1.93	15.2	15.2	0.01
David Robinson	70	70	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.15	8	4	4	16.7	15.4	1.33	15.6	14.1	1.49
Jaren Jackson	65	65	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.00	13	-1	14	15.8	17.8	-2.02	15.1	15.6	-0.47
Antonio Daniels	55	56	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.04	14	-2	16	15.7	17.5	-1.76	15.3	15.2	0.11
Samaki Walker	33	34	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.00	6	6	0	16.5	16.3	0.22	15.4	15.2	0.22
Avery Johnson	36	35	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.18	-2	14	-16	17.5	15.7	1.76	15.2	15.3	-0.11
Mario Elie	26	26	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.14	-1	13	-14	17.8	15.8	2.02	15.6	15.1	0.47
Felton Spencer	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	10	-8	3.5	17.0	-13.50	8.0	15.6	-7.57
Sean Elliott	42	40	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.07	-3	15	-18	14.9	17.7	-2.88	13.8	16.3	-2.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.8,0.78,0.85,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.9,0.88,0.95,0.96,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 79, MIA 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.81,0.72,0.8,0.89,0.85,0.81,0.9,0.92,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.97,0.96,0.99,1,1,1	95.4%
DEN 86, SEA 102	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.86,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.95,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
CHH 81, CLE 93	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.74,0.72,0.65,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.91,0.91,0.87,0.88,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	94.9%