NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	107		Excitement	5.7 [673]		MVP	John Amaechi (ORL): +15.9%
Orlando Magic	110		Comeback	1.0 [1171]		LVP	Chris Herren (DEN): -21.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
George McCloud	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.01	0.01	10	86%	0.19	3	-0.08	9	89%	0.02
Chris Gatling	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	6	73%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	1	71%	0.02	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Keon Clark	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.03	10	64%	0.03	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Popeye Jones	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	8	50%	-0.00	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11	-0.02	-0.07	0.02	23	59%	0.06	5	-0.17	13	85%	0.02
Chris Herren	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21	-0.13	-0.08	-0.00	3	22%	-0.11	4	-0.10	3	67%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Amaechi	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.05	-0.01	20	63%	0.18	1	-0.02	9	78%	-0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.17,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.06	0.03	18	56%	0.10	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.06
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	69%	0.06	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.08	0.04	-0.03	8	50%	0.05	4	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	3	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.01
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	10	45%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	1	33%	-0.05	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.02
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.02	0.00	8	44%	-0.07	2	-0.05	11	73%	-0.02
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.01	-0.01	5	0%	-0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	1.8	34.5	15.6	29.0	1.8	38.0	146.6
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +3.6%

ORL +3.8%

ORL +17.0%

ORL +25.1%

ORL +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	ORL	NBA	DEN	ORL	NBA
this game	14.8	14.8	15.2	108.1	114.6	101.7
season	14.8	13.6		101.5	100.4
opponent	15.4	15.0		99.3	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.8	13.8	14.7	14.9	14.8
ORL	13.0	13.4	16.0	17.2	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cory Alexander	6	6	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.04	0	-3	3	12.7	14.9	-2.24	13.0	14.9	-1.89
Popeye Jones	23	21	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.06	-1	-2	1	14.8	14.7	0.08	14.9	14.7	0.17
Chris Gatling	26	25	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.31	7	-10	17	14.6	14.8	-0.26	16.3	14.2	2.09
Ryan Bowen	29	28	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.10	-1	-2	1	13.9	15.1	-1.23	13.8	15.2	-1.39
Nick Van Exel	27	28	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.14	-12	9	-21	15.3	14.6	0.68	13.1	15.5	-2.40
Chris Herren	69	66	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.51	10	-13	23	15.0	14.3	0.67	15.7	12.8	2.82
Antonio McDyess	86	82	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.41	4	-7	11	14.9	14.0	0.88	14.8	14.8	-0.02
James Posey	50	49	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.06	-9	6	-15	15.2	14.3	0.95	14.9	14.7	0.22
Raef LaFrentz	31	31	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.05	-10	7	-17	15.8	14.3	1.56	14.6	14.8	-0.23
George McCloud	73	71	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.47	4	-7	11	14.4	15.7	-1.25	14.9	14.4	0.50
Keon Clark	75	73	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.20	-7	4	-11	14.4	16.0	-1.57	14.5	15.8	-1.33

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Armstrong	70	71	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.12	11	-8	19	14.7	15.0	-0.26	14.0	16.7	-2.76
Anthony Johnson	57	58	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.11	10	-7	17	14.2	15.6	-1.34	14.7	14.9	-0.23
Ben Wallace	45	47	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.06	10	-7	17	13.1	16.3	-3.21	14.8	14.8	-0.00
John Amaechi	70	72	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.19	4	-1	5	14.8	14.7	0.16	14.4	15.8	-1.44
Bo Outlaw	64	64	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.15	5	-2	7	14.2	15.8	-1.61	14.7	14.9	-0.14
Derek Strong	26	27	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.30	-2	5	-7	16.8	14.0	2.85	14.3	14.9	-0.60
Corey Maggette	34	36	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.26	-2	5	-7	15.1	14.6	0.45	15.6	14.3	1.28
Michael Doleac	24	26	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.22	-1	4	-5	15.4	14.6	0.81	16.4	14.2	2.24
Monty Williams	29	31	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.25	-3	6	-9	14.6	14.8	-0.22	15.4	14.5	0.95
Chucky Atkins	33	35	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.32	-9	12	-21	15.3	14.5	0.76	15.0	14.7	0.32
Pat Garrity	28	28	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.08	-8	11	-19	16.7	14.0	2.69	14.9	14.7	0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.76,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.75,0.69,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.74,0.8,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.86,0.8,0.83,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.87,0.89,0.84,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.86,0.88,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 80, DEN 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.83,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.89,0.86,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.88,0.83,0.93,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.98,1	94.2%
POR 87, CHI 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.68,0.72,0.76,0.76,0.84,0.81,0.72,0.65,0.71,0.74,0.77,0.67,0.7,0.8,0.84,0.8,0.85,0.91,0.94,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.92,0.84,0.75,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.0%
PHX 97, MIN 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.76,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.88,0.78,0.79,0.66,0.62,0.71,0.76,0.88,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,0.96,1	94.0%