NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Jersey Nets	94		Excitement	4.1 [977]		MVP	Jamie Feick (NJN): +4.4%
Denver Nuggets	81		Comeback	1.2 [444]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): -14.0%

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamie Feick	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	20	54%	0.07	2	-0.03	6	83%	-0.01
Jim McIlvaine	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	4	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Elliot Perry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.04	4	75%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	9	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	6	67%	0.00
Evan Eschmeyer	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.01	-0.03	20	48%	0.03	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Lucious Harris	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Scott Burrell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	6	36%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Kerry Kittles	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	7	14%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Popeye Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	25%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.10	-0.01	0.09	13	69%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.03
James Posey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roy Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	20%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	10	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	5	25%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.02	24	40%	-0.08	2	-0.03	7	57%	-0.02
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.01	-0.01	18	40%	-0.08	2	-0.05	7	71%	-0.02
Nick Van Exel	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.17	-0.01	-0.04	9	11%	-0.09	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.3	23.4	16.3	24.5	2.4	29.2	121.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +46.1%

NJN +2.7%

NJN +7.6%

DEN -7.3%

NJN +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NJN	DEN	NBA	NJN	DEN	NBA
this game	15.8	14.9	15.2	101.1	85.3	101.7
season	15.5	14.8		102.1	101.5
opponent	15.0	14.7		103.7	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NJN	15.2	15.3	15.8	16.8	15.8
DEN	14.8	15.3	16.2	13.2	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johnny Newman	48	48	0.50	-0.00	0.50	-0.11	21	-8	29	15.2	16.4	-1.15	15.0	14.8	0.19
Stephon Marbury	72	73	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.05	14	-1	15	15.2	17.7	-2.49	14.9	14.8	0.06
Keith Van Horn	68	69	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.18	6	7	-1	16.0	15.1	0.96	14.1	16.9	-2.78
Jim McIlvaine	42	42	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.04	9	4	5	15.3	16.2	-0.95	14.2	15.4	-1.12
Lucious Harris	48	50	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.00	9	4	5	16.0	15.5	0.53	15.0	14.7	0.33
Kerry Kittles	45	45	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.12	4	9	-5	15.5	16.0	-0.53	14.7	15.0	-0.33
Jamie Feick	48	49	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.02	6	7	-1	16.2	15.4	0.83	15.8	13.9	1.93
Scott Burrell	25	26	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.07	7	6	1	15.1	16.0	-0.96	16.9	14.1	2.78
Elliot Perry	20	21	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.12	-3	16	-19	17.4	15.3	2.12	15.4	14.7	0.66
Evan Eschmeyer	4	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	13	-13	18.2	15.7	2.58	8.6	15.2	-6.61
Kendall Gill	45	47	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.23	-8	21	-29	16.4	15.2	1.15	14.8	15.0	-0.19

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	13	13	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-14	15	15.4	14.8	0.60	14.7	16.0	-1.27
Cory Alexander	8	7	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.03	-3	-10	7	20.9	14.3	6.56	14.3	15.9	-1.62
Roy Rogers	9	8	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-11	9	13.6	15.0	-1.44	15.6	15.8	-0.18
Bryant Stith	24	21	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-12	11	15.7	14.6	1.08	16.4	15.6	0.83
Popeye Jones	23	21	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.11	1	-14	15	14.8	14.9	-0.05	18.3	15.1	3.23
Chris Gatling	44	43	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.03	-8	-5	-3	16.1	13.8	2.24	14.8	16.6	-1.81
Raef LaFrentz	45	44	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.02	-11	-2	-9	14.2	15.5	-1.34	14.9	16.6	-1.62
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	68	69	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.13	-8	-5	-3	14.4	16.1	-1.74	15.8	15.7	0.10
Antonio McDyess	72	73	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.12	-10	-3	-7	14.9	14.6	0.34	16.0	15.1	0.81
Nick Van Exel	87	86	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.15	-10	-3	-7	14.3	20.9	-6.56	15.9	14.3	1.62
George McCloud	82	80	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.10	-14	1	-15	14.8	15.4	-0.60	16.0	14.7	1.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.34,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 100, NOH 87	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.15,0.12,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0	96.4%
TOR 107, ORL 85	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.16,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%
NJN 81, CHH 68	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.24,0.19,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.03,0,0.01,0,0,0	96.0%