NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	99		Excitement	3.3 [1110]		MVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): +17.3%
Miami Heat	111		Comeback	1.0 [1190]		LVP	Steve Francis (HOU): -8.6%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Walt Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.13	0.00	0.10	6	94%	0.03	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Carlos Rogers	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	3	87%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Shandon Anderson	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.00	0.04	9	77%	0.05	3	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.03	8	60%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Anthony Miller	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Hamilton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	7	41%	-0.01	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Kenny Thomas	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.09	-0.01	-0.08	14	31%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Matt Bullard	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	6	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bryce Drew	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	5	33%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Steve Francis	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	0.05	15	56%	-0.03	3	-0.06	9	89%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.16	0.03	0.01	15	78%	0.19	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.11	0.01	0.05	8	79%	0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.02	14	59%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Rex Walters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.07	10	50%	0.05	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	5	80%	0.02	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	12	44%	0.01	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Rodney Buford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	8	37%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	5	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	8	37%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.0	32.3	15.5	28.3	2.4	29.4	133.1
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +37.6%

HOU -5.6%

HOU -7.3%

MIA +21.8%

MIA +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MIA	NBA	HOU	MIA	NBA
this game	16.5	17.0	15.2	115.1	129.1	101.7
season	15.4	15.7		102.4	101.2
opponent	15.9	14.6		98.2	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	17.0	18.4	16.9	13.6	16.5
MIA	15.8	17.6	13.7	21.3	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walt Williams	36	37	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.35	15	-27	42	15.2	17.4	-2.11	19.9	14.8	5.15
Anthony Miller	13	14	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.29	10	-22	32	13.3	17.0	-3.73	20.4	16.4	4.00
Thomas Hamilton	38	36	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.14	-12	0	-12	18.9	14.5	4.43	15.1	18.4	-3.36
Bryce Drew	28	30	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.28	2	-14	16	16.2	16.6	-0.34	17.9	16.6	1.31
Kenny Thomas	60	60	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.26	1	-13	14	16.8	15.7	1.12	17.7	15.3	2.39
Matt Bullard	26	26	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.11	-13	1	-14	15.7	16.8	-1.12	15.3	17.7	-2.39
Shandon Anderson	64	64	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.15	-4	-8	4	16.1	17.7	-1.62	16.4	18.8	-2.37
Carlos Rogers	35	36	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.01	-10	-2	-8	15.0	17.5	-2.54	17.7	16.5	1.13
Steve Francis	68	66	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	0.13	-22	10	-32	16.9	14.7	2.22	16.5	18.8	-2.33
Cuttino Mobley	62	61	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	0.22	-27	15	-42	17.2	14.6	2.63	16.0	19.4	-3.37

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Mashburn	56	54	0.56	-0.06	0.62	-0.26	28	-16	44	15.3	20.2	-4.85	18.4	13.2	5.29
P.J. Brown	62	63	0.54	-0.04	0.57	-0.14	23	-11	34	15.8	20.2	-4.43	17.2	14.5	2.67
Dan Majerle	65	64	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.15	23	-11	34	15.5	21.6	-6.03	17.5	13.5	4.06
Alonzo Mourning	64	65	0.41	0.09	0.33	-0.14	19	-7	26	16.3	19.1	-2.79	17.3	14.0	3.21
Anthony Carter	44	43	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.27	22	-10	32	15.6	18.5	-2.86	17.6	15.3	2.26
Rex Walters	42	43	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.41	-10	22	-32	18.5	15.6	2.86	15.3	17.6	-2.26
Clar. Weatherspoon	34	33	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.28	-8	20	-28	20.0	15.0	4.99	14.9	17.4	-2.49
Duane Causwell	12	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.29	-10	22	-32	18.7	16.7	1.92	12.4	17.1	-4.72
Rodney Buford	27	29	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.39	-14	26	-40	20.1	15.6	4.52	13.1	18.2	-5.09
Mark Strickland	24	25	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.32	-13	25	-38	21.5	15.3	6.17	13.5	17.7	-4.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 107, LAL 124	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.68,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.71,0.77,0.73,0.82,0.81,0.8,0.83,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
MIL 93, PHX 109	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.72,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.85,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%
WAS 102, MIA 129	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.66,0.69,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.88,0.9,0.94,0.88,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%