NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	83		Excitement	6.7 [483]		MVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): +10.8%
Miami Heat	90		Comeback	1.6 [1037]		LVP	Billy Owens (PHI): -17.3%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrone Hill	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07	0.10	-0.01	0.01	13	67%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Eric Snow	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	6	62%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Kevin Ollie	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nazr Mohammed	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0	-0.03	0.03	0.00	3	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Todd MacCulloch	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
George Lynch	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	5	42%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Aaron McKie	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	19	49%	0.02	4	-0.12	3	100%	0.02
Larry Hughes	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.02	13	37%	0.00	3	-0.14	1	0%	-0.02
Jumaine Jones	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	0.00	2	0%	-0.11	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.05
Billy Owens	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17	-0.14	-0.04	-0.00	8	11%	-0.14	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.04

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.11	0.11	-0.02	0.10	-0.02	18	60%	0.19	4	-0.08	11	73%	-0.00
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rex Walters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	58%	0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	0.01	11	54%	0.07	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	9	52%	0.04	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	0.01	6	47%	0.00	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.01	8	56%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	12	37%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.5	32.3	15.7	30.4	2.3	31.6	139.0
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +28.4%

MIA +18.0%

MIA +5.3%

MIA +3.0%

PHI -4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	MIA	NBA	PHI	MIA	NBA
this game	17.7	15.8	15.2	97.6	103.4	101.7
season	15.0	15.7		99.5	101.2
opponent	15.9	15.5		98.2	98.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	18.0	17.3	19.0	16.4	17.7
MIA	15.5	14.0	15.2	18.7	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Ollie	5	6	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.00	-1	-6	5	23.0	17.3	5.65	16.3	15.8	0.54
Jumaine Jones	13	12	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-7	7	14.6	18.2	-3.62	15.5	15.9	-0.38
Bruce Bowen	35	37	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.21	5	-12	17	16.3	18.7	-2.42	16.0	15.7	0.25
Billy Owens	48	48	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.19	4	-11	15	16.5	19.2	-2.72	15.5	16.2	-0.64
Todd MacCulloch	14	15	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.03	-6	-1	-5	22.6	16.7	5.94	15.5	15.9	-0.44
Eric Snow	67	68	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.24	1	-8	9	17.1	19.8	-2.66	16.6	13.0	3.62
Nazr Mohammed	27	25	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.12	-13	6	-19	18.9	17.1	1.77	14.0	16.6	-2.62
Tyrone Hill	63	65	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.33	2	-9	11	17.2	19.0	-1.84	16.6	13.7	2.87
Aaron McKie	62	64	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.24	-2	-5	3	17.1	19.2	-2.10	15.3	17.3	-2.07
George Lynch	49	51	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.12	-11	4	-15	19.2	15.6	3.59	16.5	14.9	1.60
Larry Hughes	42	44	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.19	-14	7	-21	18.8	16.6	2.18	15.0	16.7	-1.77

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Majerle	73	71	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.29	12	-5	17	15.4	17.9	-2.50	17.4	19.1	-1.75
Alonzo Mourning	68	67	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.24	11	-4	15	16.1	14.9	1.19	18.7	13.8	4.88
P.J. Brown	67	65	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.27	9	-2	11	15.9	15.5	0.36	17.2	19.4	-2.25
Anthony Carter	35	36	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.17	9	-2	11	16.8	15.2	1.58	20.7	15.4	5.27
Rex Walters	47	44	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.07	4	3	1	15.2	16.6	-1.43	16.0	19.5	-3.53
Voshon Lenard	53	50	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.13	1	6	-5	15.6	16.2	-0.67	17.1	18.6	-1.51
Jamal Mashburn	52	52	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.24	-3	10	-13	16.6	14.7	1.81	18.0	17.1	0.92
Clar. Weatherspoon	27	26	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	10	-13	16.4	15.5	0.89	17.3	17.9	-0.60
Mark Strickland	13	14	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.02	-5	12	-17	13.0	16.3	-3.32	15.9	18.0	-2.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.61,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.66,0.67,0.78,0.74,0.7,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.94,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 106, DET 115	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.62,0.63,0.73,0.79,0.74,0.9,0.79,0.91,0.85,0.74,0.88,0.78,0.95,0.79,0.94,0.99,1	92.8%
SAS 90, DAL 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.41,0.33,0.38,0.42,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.59,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.62,0.62,0.7,0.74,0.85,0.85,0.87,0.93,0.86,0.85,0.74,0.76,0.72,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.96,1	92.6%
PHI 94, ATL 95	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.59,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.62,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.77,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.59,0.65,0.78,0.68,0.77,0.85,0.93,1	92.1%