NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	114		Excitement	6.6 [496]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +27.0%
Boston Celtics	112		Comeback	35.9 [16]		LVP	Kenny Anderson (BOS): -17.4%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.27	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.11,0.27	0.00	0.26	-0.01	13	60%	0.33	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03
Danny Manning	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.12	0.06	0.02	7	88%	0.16	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Tim Thomas	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13	0.14	0.04	0.05	6	106%	0.15	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.05
Glenn Robinson	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	18	55%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02
Sam Cassell	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	21	54%	0.04	3	-0.04	10	100%	0.03
Ervin Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Vinny Del Negro	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Robert Traylor	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Ellis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Reid	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	8	35%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.12	-0.00	0.02	11	79%	0.12	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.02	0.08	-0.01	10	45%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	3	83%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Pervis Ellison	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	2	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	5	40%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Doug Overton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	6	23%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.08,-0.07	-0.07	0.04	-0.13	-0.02	19	61%	-0.03	3	-0.04	6	83%	0.00
Dana Barros	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	3	0%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	0.04	-0.17	0.00	18	59%	0.07	3	-0.20	1	100%	0.00
Kenny Anderson	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.05,-0.16,-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-0.11	0.02	9	44%	-0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.4	27.0	16.8	26.2	1.6	33.2	132.5
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +48.7%

MIL +10.8%

BOS -34.5%

MIL +23.0%

MIL +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	BOS	NBA	MIL	BOS	NBA
this game	14.2	16.4	15.2	121.3	119.1	101.7
season	14.9	14.7		105.5	102.4
opponent	15.1	15.4		103.3	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.2	15.4	13.4	12.8	14.2
BOS	14.2	15.2	17.9	18.5	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Manning	44	44	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.33	14	-12	26	12.5	15.8	-3.31	18.1	14.9	3.17
Glenn Robinson	61	61	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.57	3	-1	4	14.7	13.2	1.50	16.4	16.5	-0.09
Sam Cassell	71	73	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.56	0	2	-2	14.4	13.8	0.57	16.6	16.0	0.61
Ray Allen	72	71	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.60	-5	7	-12	14.9	12.1	2.77	16.5	16.0	0.51
Tim Thomas	54	54	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.32	3	-1	4	13.7	14.9	-1.28	17.2	15.4	1.79
Dale Ellis	39	40	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.06	11	-9	20	12.4	15.5	-3.17	17.7	15.5	2.26
Vinny Del Negro	30	29	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	-0.17	4	-2	6	14.3	14.2	0.13	16.1	16.6	-0.47
J.R. Reid	47	46	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.22	4	-2	6	14.2	14.2	0.04	15.2	17.6	-2.41
Robert Traylor	14	14	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.11	-10	12	-22	15.8	13.9	1.85	12.8	17.1	-4.28
Ervin Johnson	38	38	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.17	-14	16	-30	15.9	13.1	2.87	14.7	17.6	-2.97

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug Overton	42	41	0.29	-0.80	1.09	0.03	9	-11	20	15.8	16.9	-1.07	15.6	13.1	2.48
Eric Williams	24	25	0.12	-0.61	0.73	0.09	1	-3	4	13.7	17.4	-3.70	15.6	13.7	1.94
Pervis Ellison	11	12	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.01	3	-5	8	15.5	16.6	-1.10	17.7	13.7	3.96
Calbert Cheaney	42	44	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.24	-7	5	-12	15.9	16.8	-0.90	14.2	14.3	-0.10
Walter McCarty	25	26	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.16	-5	3	-8	13.8	17.4	-3.58	13.2	14.6	-1.46
Dana Barros	22	22	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.00	-1	-1	0	15.5	16.7	-1.27	11.2	15.1	-3.90
Tony Battie	23	24	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.18	-8	6	-14	15.0	16.9	-1.94	13.2	14.5	-1.29
Adrian Griffin	66	64	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.61	8	-10	18	16.9	15.3	1.62	14.1	14.4	-0.27
Antoine Walker	69	68	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.60	3	-5	8	17.4	13.8	3.58	14.6	13.2	1.46
Vitaly Potapenko	60	58	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.61	3	-5	8	17.2	15.1	2.05	13.9	14.7	-0.83
Paul Pierce	55	55	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.51	-6	4	-10	17.7	14.6	3.05	13.7	14.9	-1.21
Kenny Anderson	31	31	-0.85	0.35	-1.20	-0.56	-10	8	-18	17.5	15.9	1.53	14.5	14.1	0.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.68,0.73,0.72,0.76,0.82,0.8,0.82,0.85,0.82,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.89,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.92,0.9,0.86,0.87,0.94,0.91,0.88,0.94,0.91,0.89,0.76,0.54,0.76,0.79,0.66,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 96, CHA 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.7,0.72,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.78,0.78,0.76,0.82,0.75,0.79,0.84,0.84,0.88,0.87,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.86,0.85,0.88,0.86,0.89,0.92,0.89,0.92,0.9,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.85,0.86,0.81,0.87,0.81,0.78,0.69,0.72,0.65,0.72,0	93.7%
MIL 105, BOS 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.7,0.74,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.78,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.74,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.78,0.68,0.71,0.59,0.74,0	93.5%
LAC 135, GSW 131	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.79,0.73,0.73,0.78,0.86,0.82,0.84,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.88,0.67,0.81,0.72,0.8,0.58,0	92.1%