NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	89		Excitement	7.6 [273]		MVP	Bill Curley (MIN): +6.4%
Minnesota Timberwolves	92		Comeback	2.6 [181]		LVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): -25.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Majerle	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.01	8	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Terry Mills	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.06	0.00	12	58%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Marty Conlon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Mark Strickland	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.06	-0.02	7	43%	-0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Eric Murdock	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	6	33%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	18	54%	-0.04	2	-0.07	16	62%	-0.06
P.J. Brown	-0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16	-0.07	-0.08	0.01	7	36%	-0.16	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.06
Tim Hardaway	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.25,-0.25	-0.17	-0.10	-0.02	21	36%	-0.16	4	-0.10	3	67%	-0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bill Curley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cherokee Parks	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	7	57%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	10	50%	0.07	1	-0.05	6	83%	0.04
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.05	0.00	8	62%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	28	45%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.03
Micheal Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	1	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Stephon Marbury	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	20	43%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Stanley Roberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	3	33%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	13	31%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	23.5	15.6	26.0	1.8	35.0	129.5
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +24.0%

MIN +3.1%

MIN +7.8%

MIN +10.6%

MIN +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIN	NBA	MIA	MIN	NBA
this game	17.7	15.4	15.6	101.1	107.0	102.5
season	15.8	14.8		104.7	105.3
opponent	15.7	16.2		104.9	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.2	17.0	19.0	20.4	17.7
MIN	13.6	16.5	14.4	17.5	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marty Conlon	12	13	0.15	-0.65	0.79	0.03	4	-7	11	19.3	17.4	1.89	16.2	15.2	0.92
Duane Causwell	18	18	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.01	0	-3	3	15.8	18.2	-2.42	15.9	15.2	0.72
P.J. Brown	58	55	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.16	4	-7	11	17.0	19.0	-2.02	14.8	16.3	-1.49
Voshon Lenard	74	75	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.37	4	-7	11	17.8	17.1	0.67	15.2	16.8	-1.66
Tim Hardaway	71	68	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.37	2	-5	7	17.6	18.2	-0.58	15.3	15.5	-0.16
Eric Murdock	35	34	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.08	-13	10	-23	18.2	17.4	0.82	15.8	15.1	0.70
Dan Majerle	73	70	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.47	0	-3	3	18.0	16.3	1.73	15.5	15.0	0.46
Alonzo Mourning	66	65	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.47	-1	-2	1	17.8	17.5	0.33	15.8	14.0	1.75
Mark Strickland	33	32	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.14	-15	12	-27	18.0	17.5	0.52	14.7	15.8	-1.04

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	76	77	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.39	5	-2	7	14.9	19.3	-4.44	17.6	18.6	-1.06
Anthony Peeler	66	67	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.25	9	-6	15	14.2	19.2	-5.05	17.2	19.3	-2.08
Sam Mitchell	54	56	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.49	0	3	-3	16.4	13.7	2.68	18.2	16.8	1.45
Bill Curley	41	40	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.18	9	-6	15	15.0	15.8	-0.80	18.4	17.1	1.37
Terry Porter	39	39	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.15	8	-5	13	16.2	14.7	1.48	18.5	17.0	1.50
Stephon Marbury	69	73	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.26	3	0	3	14.9	17.2	-2.25	17.4	19.1	-1.64
Micheal Williams	17	15	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.15	0	3	-3	17.2	14.9	2.25	19.1	17.4	1.64
Cherokee Parks	40	43	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.22	-7	10	-17	16.5	14.4	2.11	17.9	17.5	0.35
Stanley Roberts	10	11	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	-0.02	-4	7	-11	17.7	15.1	2.63	13.3	18.3	-5.06
Reggie Jordan	18	19	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.02	-8	11	-19	14.3	15.7	-1.38	17.3	17.8	-0.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.38,0.4,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.3,0.42,0.34,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.75,0.78,0.87,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 101, DAL 106	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.54,0.48,0.5,0.43,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.37,0.32,0.42,0.38,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.75,0.96,0.98,0.99,1	93.8%
OKC 94, DEN 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.36,0.5,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.74,0.81,0.78,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.99,1	92.4%
WAS 102, DEN 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.34,0.29,0.26,0.24,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.69,0.76,0.69,0.86,0.85,0.95,0.97,1	92.3%