NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	85		Excitement	4.8 [837]		MVP	Vinny Del Negro (SAS): +7.2%
San Antonio Spurs	96		Comeback	2.5 [982]		LVP	Ray Allen (MIL): -25.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ervin Johnson	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.00	-0.06	13	50%	0.07	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.01
Jamie Feick	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.09	0.00	0.06	8	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Litterial Green	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	0	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jeff Nordgaard	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Lang	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	4	57%	0.01	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
Jerald Honeycutt	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	0.03	13	52%	-0.06	2	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Elliot Perry	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	0.01	15	47%	-0.00	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Armen Gilliam	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.04	11	36%	0.00	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.26	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.20	-0.07	-0.01	18	22%	-0.25	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.00	0.02	-0.05	13	48%	0.07	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Willie Burton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	0.01	0.04	2	117%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Geary	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	-0.03	4	60%	0.03	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	7	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.02	0.02	14	64%	0.09	4	-0.09	5	60%	-0.02
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carl Herrera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	9	50%	0.00	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	0.04	18	66%	0.11	6	-0.17	2	50%	-0.00
Chuck Person	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	4	0%	-0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	1.7	26.1	15.8	23.1	1.8	0.0	91.8
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +55.8%

MIL -3.6%

SAS +8.2%

MIL -12.4%

SAS +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAS	NBA	MIL	SAS	NBA
this game	17.3	14.8	15.6	95.5	106.7	102.5
season	16.0	15.9		101.1	100.9
opponent	15.9	15.1		97.2	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.6	17.5	20.0	16.4	17.3
SAS	14.4	16.0	12.8	16.3	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Litterial Green	7	6	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-16	21	10.6	17.9	-7.36	14.7	14.9	-0.19
Jeff Nordgaard	4	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-11	11	6.7	17.8	-11.10	13.7	14.9	-1.22
Jamie Feick	29	30	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.19	3	-14	17	16.9	17.6	-0.72	15.2	14.6	0.58
Andrew Lang	16	16	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.18	1	-12	13	14.9	17.9	-2.94	13.7	15.1	-1.33
Jerald Honeycutt	48	48	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.13	-3	-8	5	17.7	17.0	0.69	15.3	14.3	1.05
Michael Curry	71	73	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.16	-5	-6	1	18.0	14.7	3.36	15.2	13.2	2.06
Ervin Johnson	73	74	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.00	-12	1	-13	17.9	14.9	2.94	15.1	13.7	1.33
Armen Gilliam	54	55	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.00	-13	2	-15	17.3	17.4	-0.09	14.0	16.2	-2.17
Elliot Perry	78	80	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.04	-15	4	-19	17.5	16.3	1.23	14.7	16.1	-1.41
Ray Allen	65	65	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.05	-16	5	-21	17.8	16.1	1.73	14.8	14.8	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	71	70	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.06	21	-10	31	15.0	14.4	0.60	18.1	14.6	3.45
Chuck Person	61	59	0.53	-0.03	0.55	-0.00	18	-7	25	13.5	17.7	-4.20	18.0	16.0	2.03
Avery Johnson	59	58	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.08	8	3	5	14.5	15.6	-1.12	17.3	17.4	-0.01
David Robinson	58	56	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.12	6	5	1	14.7	15.2	-0.53	17.4	17.2	0.22
Jaren Jackson	41	41	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.01	10	1	9	14.3	15.3	-0.92	18.9	16.0	2.84
Vinny Del Negro	54	53	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.08	6	5	1	15.6	13.7	1.82	16.5	18.6	-2.17
Will Perdue	32	33	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.06	5	6	-1	15.2	14.7	0.53	17.2	17.4	-0.22
Reggie Geary	31	31	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.10	3	8	-5	15.6	14.5	1.12	17.4	17.3	0.01
Willie Burton	15	16	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.20	-4	15	-19	16.6	14.5	2.11	12.7	18.4	-5.61
Carl Herrera	5	5	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	15	-19	12.0	15.0	-3.01	18.2	17.3	0.90
Malik Rose	23	23	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	0.21	-14	25	-39	16.7	14.2	2.49	15.7	17.9	-2.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.29,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.55,0.61,0.73,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.76,0.71,0.79,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.95,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 98, PHI 107	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.4,0.43,0.55,0.64,0.76,0.89,0.83,0.82,0.85,0.88,0.82,0.87,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.4%
MEM 83, WAS 93	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.7,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.67,0.72,0.9,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	91.4%
DAL 87, POR 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.34,0.42,0.33,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.45,0.45,0.61,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.77,0.73,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	91.4%