NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	86		Excitement	5.7 [638]		MVP	David Robinson (SAS): +16.9%
San Antonio Spurs	97		Comeback	1.9 [962]		LVP	Tariq Abdul-Wahad (SAC): -15.0%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corliss Williamson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	12	66%	0.08	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.03
Lawrence Funderburke	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	7	56%	0.03	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Mark Hendrickson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Billy Owens	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	7	57%	0.07	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04
Mitch Richmond	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.06	-0.01	19	55%	0.06	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Michael Stewart	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	0.03	2	87%	-0.00	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.02
Anthony Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.01	-0.02	0.06	10	52%	-0.07	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.01
Chris Robinson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	5	0%	-0.15	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.07

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.06	0.10	-0.01	24	59%	0.24	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.02	-0.02	13	64%	0.13	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.04	0.01	15	63%	0.10	1	-0.01	8	75%	-0.00
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.07	-0.00	11	41%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Herrera	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Burton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.02	2	67%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chuck Person	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.03	6	67%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	3	30%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	3	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Geary	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.01	9	11%	-0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	1.8	25.4	15.7	24.0	1.8	30.2	125.5
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +28.0%

SAS +4.5%

SAS +3.0%

SAS +13.3%

SAS +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	SAS	NBA	SAC	SAS	NBA
this game	15.1	17.3	15.6	95.6	110.2	102.5
season	15.2	15.9		98.5	100.9
opponent	15.9	15.3		97.2	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.3	15.8	16.2	15.3	15.1
SAS	15.6	15.5	20.8	18.1	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Robinson	9	9	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.03	4	-15	19	16.4	14.9	1.53	19.7	17.1	2.62
Otis Thorpe	52	49	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.01	3	-14	17	14.9	15.2	-0.29	16.6	18.2	-1.55
Mark Hendrickson	7	7	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-11	11	7.1	15.7	-8.59	13.0	17.7	-4.69
Billy Owens	59	56	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-11	11	15.1	15.0	0.05	17.2	17.6	-0.43
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	35	36	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.04	-8	-3	-5	14.4	15.5	-1.04	15.1	18.9	-3.83
Anthony Johnson	60	56	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.08	-11	0	-11	14.5	16.2	-1.70	17.6	16.8	0.79
Mitch Richmond	76	75	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.21	-7	-4	-3	15.6	11.9	3.72	17.9	13.9	3.98
Corliss Williamson	71	69	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.16	-10	-1	-9	15.7	12.8	2.89	17.5	16.6	0.94
Lawrence Funderburke	43	44	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.17	-12	1	-13	15.3	14.8	0.50	17.9	16.7	1.14
Michael Stewart	38	39	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.16	-14	3	-17	15.2	14.9	0.29	18.2	16.6	1.55

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vinny Del Negro	74	76	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.06	22	-11	33	17.0	19.1	-2.17	15.5	12.8	2.70
Will Perdue	41	40	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.19	13	-2	15	15.6	18.8	-3.24	14.1	15.8	-1.70
Jaren Jackson	55	57	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.16	7	4	3	17.7	16.7	0.99	15.3	14.7	0.54
David Robinson	65	69	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.23	4	7	-3	19.1	12.3	6.73	15.9	12.4	3.44
Chuck Person	59	61	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.06	9	2	7	17.7	16.6	1.14	15.1	15.1	-0.00
Monty Williams	17	17	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.14	2	9	-7	18.3	17.1	1.21	18.1	14.4	3.76
Tim Duncan	61	64	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.04	3	8	-5	16.8	18.5	-1.68	15.0	15.3	-0.28
Malik Rose	11	11	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.09	4	7	-3	14.4	17.7	-3.38	13.1	15.3	-2.25
Willie Burton	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	9	-7	11.3	17.8	-6.42	7.4	15.5	-8.12
Reggie Geary	47	47	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.14	-7	18	-25	17.4	17.2	0.23	14.1	16.1	-1.92
Carl Herrera	4	3	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.03	-4	15	-19	21.7	17.1	4.64	13.7	15.1	-1.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.39,0.37,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.75,0.79,0.86,0.83,0.81,0.81,0.79,0.65,0.62,0.44,0.4,0.52,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.85,0.96,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 97, SAS 110	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.45,0.45,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.86,0.85,0.73,0.67,0.74,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.74,0.62,0.7,0.68,0.79,0.76,0.91,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.3%
PHX 110, LAL 115	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.75,0.67,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.63,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.73,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.66,0.48,0.62,0.73,0.59,0.76,0.78,0.9,0.96,0.99,0.99,1	92.4%
LAL 106, PHX 115	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.75,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.61,0.73,0.78,0.94,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.97,1,1	92.1%