NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	93		Excitement	7.1 [374]		MVP	Eldridge Recasner (ATL): +7.7%
Atlanta Hawks	103		Comeback	4.1 [611]		LVP	Steven Smith (ATL): -25.0%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrone Hill	0.07	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	6	81%	0.11	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.02
Ray Allen	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.04	-0.01	0.01	-0.04	14	46%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	7	57%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Lang	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	75%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Elliot Perry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.00	5	75%	0.06	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Terrell Brandon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	16	58%	0.07	3	-0.09	6	67%	-0.02
Armen Gilliam	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	0.00	6	56%	0.05	3	-0.11	6	100%	0.04
Ervin Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	5	40%	0.02	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Pierce	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	9	38%	-0.11	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eldridge Recasner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.07	0.01	9	58%	0.10	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.02	0.07	0.01	10	60%	0.12	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.06
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	9	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	9	69%	0.08	3	-0.06	8	75%	-0.01
Greg Anderson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	5	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	14	50%	0.07	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Chucky Brown	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	11	41%	-0.11	1	-0.05	7	57%	-0.06
Steven Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.25	-0.25	-0.14	-0.11	0.00	10	37%	-0.16	2	-0.09	10	90%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.5	25.4	15.7	25.2	2.6	35.3	128.9
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL -17.2%

ATL +16.9%

ATL +30.5%

ATL +18.0%

ATL +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	ATL	NBA	MIL	ATL	NBA
this game	16.2	15.6	15.6	103.3	113.2	102.5
season	16.0	16.1		101.1	105.3
opponent	16.0	15.1		101.5	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.4	16.4	17.3	13.8	16.2
ATL	17.8	13.6	14.0	17.5	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ervin Johnson	36	40	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.13	9	-19	28	17.9	15.0	2.90	16.8	14.7	2.05
Ray Allen	53	56	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.08	0	-10	10	15.5	17.2	-1.72	16.7	13.9	2.82
Michael Curry	61	62	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.19	1	-11	12	16.9	14.8	2.09	17.0	12.8	4.19
Elliot Perry	35	34	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.03	-7	-3	-4	14.1	17.5	-3.33	16.2	15.3	0.84
Armen Gilliam	39	39	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-10	0	-10	14.7	17.3	-2.62	15.2	16.0	-0.78
Ricky Pierce	43	41	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.08	-11	1	-12	17.1	15.3	1.84	13.1	17.8	-4.69
Tyrone Hill	75	75	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.26	-5	-5	0	16.1	16.5	-0.35	16.2	12.9	3.37
Terrell Brandon	73	75	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	1	-12	16.4	15.3	1.09	15.1	18.1	-2.93
Andrew Lang	35	33	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.04	-16	6	-22	16.5	16.0	0.50	12.9	17.2	-4.30

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mookie Blaylock	84	82	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.15	19	-9	28	16.0	11.7	4.26	15.9	18.9	-2.96
Alan Henderson	44	45	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.14	17	-7	24	15.6	15.7	-0.07	13.9	18.5	-4.58
Eldridge Recasner	50	51	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.13	9	1	8	14.3	17.3	-2.95	14.9	17.8	-2.85
Christian Laettner	72	71	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.26	4	6	-2	16.1	14.1	1.95	16.4	15.4	0.96
Chucky Brown	56	55	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.11	2	8	-6	16.9	13.6	3.28	16.3	15.9	0.43
Steven Smith	59	57	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.18	-1	11	-12	15.5	16.0	-0.49	17.2	14.5	2.67
Chris Crawford	19	19	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.05	3	7	-4	12.6	16.5	-3.88	17.1	15.9	1.18
Greg Anderson	13	13	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.08	4	6	-2	13.1	16.1	-3.00	18.8	15.7	3.12
Dikembe Mutombo	58	57	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.19	-7	17	-24	16.4	14.4	2.02	17.2	14.5	2.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.34,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.29,0.26,0.31,0.33,0.44,0.49,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.6,0.52,0.66,0.62,0.66,0.76,0.72,0.63,0.76,0.67,0.81,0.71,0.94,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 71, CHA 76	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.31,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.65,0.66,0.76,0.72,0.78,0.95,1	93.0%
DAL 94, DET 100	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.5,0.62,0.7,0.83,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.67,0.8,0.77,0.97,0.99,1	92.7%
DET 83, ATL 87	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.44,0.37,0.31,0.33,0.31,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.7,0.79,0.79,0.73,0.89,0.85,0.73,0.54,0.78,0.84,0.97,1	91.7%