NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Vancouver Grizzlies	93		Excitement	7.4 [319]		MVP	Bryant Reeves (VAN): +15.7%
Boston Celtics	97		Comeback	3.4 [576]		LVP	Sam Mack (VAN): -22.2%

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryant Reeves	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.15,0.16	0.09	0.08	0.01	21	72%	0.31	5	-0.15	15	87%	0.06
Otis Thorpe	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	0.00	8	77%	0.17	5	-0.14	6	83%	0.04
Lee Mayberry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pete Chilcutt	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Lynch	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Blue Edwards	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	6	47%	-0.03	0	0.00	7	100%	0.04
Antonio Daniels	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.18	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18	-0.11	-0.07	-0.00	9	67%	0.03	8	-0.21	6	67%	-0.02
Sam Mack	-0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.13	-0.11	-0.02	8	12%	-0.14	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.06	0.00	7	81%	0.15	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.18,-0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.10	0.10	-0.03	16	37%	0.07	2	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Greg Minor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	4	80%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Roy Rogers	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	10	58%	0.06	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.05
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	-0.08	0.03	-0.03	26	42%	0.08	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	13	50%	0.05	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Travis Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.05	2	-0.08	3	67%	0.00
Dana Barros	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	4	37%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.08	0.00	4	40%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	8	0%	-0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.4	28.5	15.7	22.1	2.5	39.2	134.1
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

VAN -2.4%

VAN -16.5%

BOS +46.9%

BOS +29.9%

VAN -7.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	VAN	BOS	NBA	VAN	BOS	NBA
this game	14.9	16.5	15.6	101.1	106.6	102.5
season	15.1	15.1		101.3	100.2
opponent	15.1	15.3		103.0	109.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
VAN	13.9	11.0	18.1	18.0	14.9
BOS	18.2	15.6	15.4	17.1	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Lynch	15	15	0.09	-0.59	0.69	0.06	1	-5	6	11.8	15.6	-3.76	19.0	16.1	2.95
Lee Mayberry	17	18	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.09	6	-10	16	18.6	14.1	4.47	16.9	16.5	0.44
Pete Chilcutt	19	19	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.04	-6	2	-8	15.6	14.8	0.80	15.4	16.8	-1.48
Sam Mack	66	64	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.30	1	-5	6	15.9	12.6	3.25	17.6	14.1	3.50
Blue Edwards	34	34	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.05	-8	4	-12	15.4	14.7	0.69	13.7	18.2	-4.52
Bryant Reeves	78	77	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.37	1	-5	6	15.3	13.1	2.21	16.8	15.3	1.48
Otis Thorpe	79	78	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.43	0	-4	4	14.5	17.5	-2.93	16.7	15.5	1.26
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	77	77	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.41	-5	1	-6	14.5	17.2	-2.69	16.3	17.7	-1.39
Antonio Daniels	75	73	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.29	-10	6	-16	14.1	18.6	-4.47	16.5	16.9	-0.44

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walter McCarty	65	64	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.47	9	-5	14	16.8	16.0	0.75	13.5	18.3	-4.85
Antoine Walker	84	86	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.39	7	-3	10	16.3	19.4	-3.13	15.5	7.0	8.50
John Thomas	39	38	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.29	9	-5	14	15.2	17.6	-2.42	13.7	15.8	-2.06
Chauncey Billups	65	66	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.37	6	-2	8	16.7	16.1	0.59	12.8	20.5	-7.69
Ron Mercer	66	67	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.35	5	-1	6	18.0	12.7	5.26	15.4	13.8	1.63
Greg Minor	25	24	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.08	4	0	4	14.1	17.5	-3.39	14.1	15.2	-1.17
Travis Knight	27	26	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	3	-2	16.4	16.6	-0.13	19.0	13.4	5.60
Roy Rogers	2	2	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.03	0	4	-4	22.0	16.4	5.58	8.5	15.1	-6.59
Dana Barros	26	27	-0.04	0.55	-0.59	-0.04	0	4	-4	16.1	16.7	-0.59	19.7	13.0	6.79
Andrew DeClercq	23	25	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.19	-8	12	-20	18.5	15.9	2.65	13.7	15.4	-1.74
Bruce Bowen	33	35	-0.37	0.87	-1.24	0.01	-13	17	-30	15.7	17.0	-1.32	16.0	14.3	1.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.37,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.26,0.35,0.31,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.52,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.78,0.9,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 98, UTA 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.36,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.27,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.24,0.37,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.72,0.97,0.92,1	92.7%
IND 65, DET 69	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.36,0.43,0.44,0.33,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.31,0.33,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.46,0.46,0.55,0.84,0.66,0.96,1	92.5%
GSW 78, MIN 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.42,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.28,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.27,0.41,0.53,0.73,0.69,0.88,0.98,1,1	92.1%