NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	89		Excitement	6.2 [543]		MVP	Tony Battie (DEN): +9.8%
San Antonio Spurs	96		Comeback	1.7 [1123]		LVP	LaPhonso Ellis (DEN): -22.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Battie	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.05	0.01	13	63%	0.17	1	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Eric Washington	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	7	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dean Garrett	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	7	57%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Goldwire	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	0.00	6	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harold Ellis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Bobby Jackson	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11	-0.07	-0.02	0.02	12	50%	-0.04	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Johnny Newman	-0.16	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	10	40%	-0.09	2	-0.06	5	40%	-0.03
Danny Fortson	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.13	-0.04	-0.00	10	40%	-0.06	4	-0.11	5	80%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.13,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.11	-0.12	0.00	17	36%	-0.17	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	8	64%	0.06	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Jaren Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	10	50%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	10	70%	0.07	3	-0.07	3	67%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	14	59%	0.12	4	-0.13	6	33%	-0.07
Reggie Geary	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chuck Person	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	8	56%	0.05	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.02	7	79%	0.10	4	-0.14	14	86%	0.03
Carl Herrera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	3	0%	-0.05
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	1.7	29.3	16.4	27.2	2.0	32.0	132.5
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +51.4%

SAS +6.9%

DEN -1.7%

DEN -6.3%

DEN -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	17.2	15.1	15.6	100.0	107.9	102.5
season	16.2	15.9		96.7	100.9
opponent	15.9	15.2		97.2	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	18.8	17.0	20.3	13.1	17.2
SAS	14.8	14.1	14.0	17.4	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Harold Ellis	27	25	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.20	8	-15	23	18.0	16.9	1.08	15.7	14.9	0.74
Danny Fortson	38	37	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.21	6	-13	19	18.1	16.6	1.51	15.1	15.2	-0.06
Eric Washington	44	44	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.21	5	-12	17	15.7	18.7	-2.98	14.8	15.5	-0.74
Anthony Goldwire	38	36	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	-5	3	19.4	15.6	3.76	14.9	15.3	-0.39
Tony Battie	56	57	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.11	-6	-1	-5	16.4	18.5	-2.12	15.1	15.2	-0.06
Bobby Jackson	51	53	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.15	-5	-2	-3	15.6	19.4	-3.76	15.3	14.9	0.39
Johnny Newman	57	58	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.07	-13	6	-19	17.5	16.6	0.92	14.6	16.1	-1.51
LaPhonso Ellis	64	65	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.21	-9	2	-11	16.7	18.6	-1.93	15.6	13.8	1.80
Dean Garrett	70	70	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.16	-19	12	-31	18.3	13.4	4.89	15.2	14.9	0.32

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaren Jackson	61	60	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.06	20	-13	33	14.8	15.9	-1.04	18.0	15.5	2.52
Tim Duncan	76	76	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.20	15	-8	23	15.3	14.4	0.89	16.8	19.8	-2.99
David Robinson	61	61	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.12	13	-6	19	14.8	15.9	-1.04	18.3	14.8	3.54
Chuck Person	59	60	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.17	2	5	-3	15.8	13.8	2.03	17.0	17.7	-0.66
Avery Johnson	59	57	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.20	0	7	-7	16.4	12.6	3.79	16.1	19.1	-2.98
Monty Williams	49	47	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.30	-5	12	-17	15.4	14.8	0.58	16.5	18.0	-1.44
Will Perdue	28	28	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	13	-19	15.9	14.8	1.04	14.8	18.3	-3.54
Cory Alexander	9	11	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	10	-13	11.4	15.6	-4.12	16.8	17.3	-0.45
Reggie Geary	9	11	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.06	-5	12	-17	9.6	15.8	-6.22	16.8	17.3	-0.45
Carl Herrera	13	13	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.09	-8	15	-23	14.4	15.3	-0.89	19.8	16.8	2.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.57,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.78,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.9,0.85,0.92,0.91,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 107, NOH 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.58,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.77,0.85,0.92,0.89,0.92,0.91,0.85,0.87,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.84,0.9,0.92,1	94.7%
DAL 106, MIL 116	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.62,0.6,0.69,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.77,0.78,0.72,0.81,0.84,0.86,0.92,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.99,1	94.3%
POR 84, HOU 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.68,0.72,0.79,0.8,0.89,0.95,0.92,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.7%