NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	111		Excitement	6.0 [585]		MVP	Dale Ellis (SEA): +12.5%
Sacramento Kings	95		Comeback	2.5 [679]		LVP	Billy Owens (SAC): -13.0%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dale Ellis	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13	0.15	0.02	0.05	10	95%	0.16	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sam Perkins	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.05	-0.02	6	71%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Gary Payton	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	19	56%	0.10	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Jim McIlvaine	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Wingate	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	20	58%	0.11	5	-0.13	3	33%	-0.03
Hersey Hawkins	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	8	44%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Detlef Schrempf	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.11	0.02	-0.04	13	46%	-0.02	3	-0.03	11	82%	0.01
Greg Anthony	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	30%	-0.05	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.06	9	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	17	61%	0.10	4	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	10	52%	0.05	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Olden Polynice	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	7	65%	0.06	2	-0.07	3	33%	-0.03
Bobby Hurley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Terry Dehere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	4	25%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Michael Stewart	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	0.00	0.01	6	53%	-0.02	3	-0.05	3	0%	-0.04
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	0.02	19	52%	-0.03	3	-0.05	10	80%	0.01
Billy Owens	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	11	37%	-0.05	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.5	28.3	16.4	23.6	2.5	27.7	123.3
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +32.7%

SEA +0.7%

SEA +5.6%

SEA +9.6%

SEA +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	SAC	NBA	SEA	SAC	NBA
this game	14.0	15.4	15.6	113.3	96.9	102.5
season	15.3	15.2		109.3	98.5
opponent	15.3	16.2		104.3	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	13.6	13.7	12.8	15.8	14.0
SAC	14.1	17.6	16.0	14.2	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Detlef Schrempf	82	83	0.56	-0.06	0.63	-0.02	20	-4	24	14.0	13.9	0.10	15.5	14.8	0.74
Gary Payton	82	82	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.01	19	-3	22	13.4	16.9	-3.56	15.6	14.4	1.26
Hersey Hawkins	75	76	0.54	-0.04	0.59	-0.13	23	-7	30	13.5	15.5	-2.04	14.9	17.4	-2.55
Vin Baker	82	83	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.03	16	0	16	13.9	14.4	-0.50	14.7	19.2	-4.45
Dale Ellis	55	56	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.09	16	0	16	14.4	13.4	1.00	16.1	14.6	1.50
Sam Perkins	39	36	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.18	5	11	-6	13.3	14.4	-1.08	17.3	14.4	2.92
David Wingate	23	22	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.16	-7	23	-30	15.5	13.5	2.04	17.4	14.9	2.55
Greg Anthony	16	16	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	19	-22	16.9	13.4	3.56	14.4	15.6	-1.26
Jim McIlvaine	31	32	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.02	-4	20	-24	14.2	13.9	0.30	13.9	16.2	-2.31
Aaron Williams	5	4	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.04	-5	21	-26	14.0	14.0	0.04	14.0	15.5	-1.49

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Hurley	18	17	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-15	14	17.1	15.1	1.99	14.1	13.9	0.19
Terry Dehere	21	20	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.15	-8	-8	0	13.4	16.0	-2.55	16.1	13.4	2.75
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	21	21	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.06	-6	-10	4	13.0	16.1	-3.03	15.1	13.6	1.45
Michael Stewart	63	60	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.14	-3	-13	10	15.3	15.7	-0.40	13.7	14.4	-0.75
Olden Polynice	32	35	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.01	-9	-7	-2	16.6	14.8	1.78	14.8	13.5	1.31
Anthony Johnson	59	60	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.07	-9	-7	-2	15.8	14.9	0.88	13.5	14.7	-1.14
Corliss Williamson	90	90	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.03	-12	-4	-8	15.5	14.7	0.74	13.8	15.5	-1.68
Billy Owens	93	93	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.06	-15	-1	-14	15.7	10.2	5.51	13.6	20.6	-7.00
Mitch Richmond	93	94	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.03	-17	1	-18	15.2	19.2	-3.97	13.9	16.5	-2.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.24,0.29,0.45,0.47,0.38,0.31,0.22,0.1,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.05,0.09,0.17,0.07,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 103, WAS 85	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.37,0.29,0.28,0.2,0.27,0.33,0.38,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.22,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0	95.3%
UTA 97, GSW 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.52,0.41,0.46,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.3,0.35,0.41,0.31,0.27,0.19,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.05,0.04,0.13,0.1,0.13,0	93.3%
POR 120, PHX 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.39,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.27,0.29,0.18,0.08,0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.2%