NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	101		Excitement	7.2 [344]		MVP	Karl Malone (UTA): +23.3%
Atlanta Hawks	99		Comeback	1.7 [351]		LVP	Christian Laettner (ATL): -18.2%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Karl Malone	0.23	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.23	0.07	0.16	-0.01	15	66%	0.26	1	-0.03	11	64%	-0.01
Adam Keefe	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.01	0.07	-0.02	10	46%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Bryon Russell	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05	-0.00	0.05	-0.01	9	45%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
John Stockton	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0	0.04	-0.02	0.02	7	65%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Greg Ostertag	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	0.00	3	58%	0.03	1	-0.04	6	50%	-0.04
Jeff Hornacek	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	9	60%	-0.00	2	-0.06	7	57%	-0.03
Antoine Carr	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	7	29%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	5	17%	-0.08	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.07
Howard Eisley	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	14	42%	-0.09	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ed Gray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	10	62%	0.08	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Eldridge Recasner	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	9	76%	0.16	4	-0.12	3	100%	0.02
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.09	-0.04	0.02	7	79%	0.03	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.05
Tyrone Corbin	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.01	0.04	8	56%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steven Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.04	0.01	10	64%	0.03	1	-0.04	8	87%	0.03
Chucky Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	7	29%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.18	-0.18	-0.07	-0.10	0.01	14	51%	0.00	3	-0.19	11	91%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.3	28.5	15.6	28.2	2.4	36.5	138.1
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +19.2%

ATL -18.5%

UTA +25.9%

UTA +28.8%

ATL -5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	ATL	NBA	UTA	ATL	NBA
this game	15.7	17.2	15.6	113.5	115.1	102.5
season	15.9	16.1		108.1	105.3
opponent	16.0	15.9		101.5	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	16.4	14.4	15.5	16.7	15.7
ATL	19.6	17.6	16.5	15.3	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Karl Malone	69	66	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.39	3	-1	4	14.6	19.6	-5.01	17.9	14.9	2.96
Jeff Hornacek	69	66	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.34	2	0	2	14.1	21.1	-7.01	17.7	15.6	2.05
Adam Keefe	62	60	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.27	3	-1	4	17.0	12.7	4.33	17.0	17.6	-0.57
John Stockton	51	48	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.32	1	1	0	13.6	18.6	-4.94	18.2	15.9	2.33
Bryon Russell	47	45	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.35	-2	4	-6	15.2	16.3	-1.07	16.4	18.1	-1.68
Greg Ostertag	54	52	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.19	0	2	-2	16.0	15.3	0.67	16.8	17.9	-1.14
Antoine Carr	35	35	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.12	2	0	2	15.9	15.6	0.27	17.9	16.7	1.17
Howard Eisley	38	38	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.12	1	1	0	18.6	13.6	4.94	15.9	18.2	-2.33
Shandon Anderson	20	20	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.10	0	2	-2	21.1	14.1	7.01	15.6	17.7	-2.05

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chucky Brown	15	15	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	1	-4	15.5	17.6	-2.12	17.1	15.4	1.62
Alan Henderson	35	35	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.09	-1	-1	0	16.9	17.5	-0.57	16.6	15.1	1.50
Ed Gray	42	44	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.19	-1	-1	0	16.5	17.9	-1.41	16.1	15.3	0.78
Tyrone Corbin	60	62	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.30	2	-4	6	17.6	16.2	1.42	14.7	18.1	-3.43
Dikembe Mutombo	66	70	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.22	-5	3	-8	18.4	13.4	4.98	16.0	14.8	1.12
Christian Laettner	70	71	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.47	1	-3	4	16.5	20.2	-3.64	15.5	16.8	-1.33
Eldridge Recasner	75	77	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.57	4	-6	10	16.8	19.8	-2.98	15.6	16.2	-0.61
Steven Smith	67	71	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.39	-7	5	-12	17.9	15.0	2.85	15.8	15.5	0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.38,0.28,0.3,0.16,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.32,0.21,0.19,0.27,0.19,0.11,0.03,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 92, MIN 84	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.4,0.17,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.18,0.27,0.32,0.14,0.29,0.18,0.14,0.03,0.07,0,0	94.2%
MEM 94, ORL 85	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.48,0.55,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.2,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.43,0.33,0.28,0.17,0.19,0.22,0.14,0.03,0.01,0.01,0	94.1%
SAS 97, MIN 84	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.28,0.27,0.21,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.12,0.1,0.19,0.28,0.19,0.03,0.01,0,0	93.7%