NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	99		Excitement	2.4 [1198]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +8.8%
Denver Nuggets	85		Comeback	1.0 [1105]		LVP	Sean Elliott (SAS): -5.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.00	-0.00	11	77%	0.09	2	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01
David Robinson	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	0.00	0.03	10	81%	0.09	2	-0.02	7	86%	0.01
Jaren Jackson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.10	0.00	0.03	12	69%	0.06	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Monty Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	4	50%	0.01	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	8	45%	0.01	1	-0.00	4	50%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	7	56%	0.02	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Malik Rose	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chuck Person	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	5	58%	-0.00	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Will Perdue	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Sean Elliott	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.12	0.00	-0.07	14	27%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Washington	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	0.00	0.03	7	70%	0.03	0	0.00	6	67%	0.01
Harold Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Priest Lauderdale	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	9	39%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.11	0.00	-0.08	16	33%	-0.01	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	10	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.00	0.05	9	67%	0.01	2	-0.04	9	67%	-0.01
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	0.00	-0.06	9	36%	-0.01	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Dean Garrett	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	11	46%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	1.5	25.2	15.4	28.5	2.4	27.6	122.8
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +36.2%

SAS +2.2%

SAS +0.7%

SAS +8.7%

SAS +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	16.1	15.6	15.6	108.8	93.4	102.5
season	15.9	16.2		100.9	96.7
opponent	15.2	15.9		109.5	97.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.8	15.0	16.8	16.8	16.1
DEN	16.9	16.3	16.7	12.5	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Robinson	64	65	0.54	-0.04	0.58	-0.49	35	-21	56	14.9	18.9	-3.93	17.3	11.2	6.17
Avery Johnson	65	65	0.51	-0.01	0.51	-0.43	32	-18	50	15.5	17.5	-2.03	16.8	12.5	4.28
Jaren Jackson	67	68	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.13	18	-4	22	16.3	15.4	0.91	16.2	13.7	2.50
Tim Duncan	53	55	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.22	21	-7	28	17.6	13.9	3.68	16.1	14.8	1.25
Sean Elliott	44	44	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.06	14	0	14	16.6	15.6	1.02	16.7	14.4	2.30
Cory Alexander	49	49	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.33	-7	21	-28	16.9	15.2	1.71	14.0	17.4	-3.34
Monty Williams	41	41	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.39	-9	23	-32	15.2	16.8	-1.62	14.1	16.7	-2.57
Malik Rose	23	20	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.16	-2	16	-18	13.4	17.0	-3.55	14.7	15.8	-1.10
Chuck Person	28	28	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.48	-17	31	-48	15.9	16.2	-0.23	12.9	16.8	-3.90
Will Perdue	21	20	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.42	-15	29	-44	18.7	15.3	3.41	11.0	16.8	-5.78

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Harold Ellis	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-15	16	6.0	15.8	-9.78	9.0	16.3	-7.33
Danny Fortson	48	47	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.35	11	-25	36	14.0	17.3	-3.30	16.7	15.5	1.18
Priest Lauderdale	14	14	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.01	-4	-10	6	16.7	15.4	1.36	17.4	15.9	1.50
Johnny Newman	58	56	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.24	1	-15	16	15.2	16.2	-0.93	16.5	15.4	1.12
Bobby Jackson	55	57	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.13	-4	-10	6	15.0	16.4	-1.32	15.8	16.5	-0.66
Anthony Goldwire	53	50	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.13	-5	-9	4	16.0	15.0	1.01	16.3	15.8	0.47
Eric Washington	64	66	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.00	-11	-3	-8	15.1	16.6	-1.52	16.4	15.3	1.06
Dean Garrett	59	57	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.06	-15	1	-16	16.1	14.5	1.59	15.6	17.0	-1.41
Tony Battie	61	64	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.10	-20	6	-26	16.0	14.7	1.28	15.9	16.6	-0.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.23,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 128, POR 108	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.29,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.4%
DAL 117, LAC 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.09,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.1%
LAL 103, WAS 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.21,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.12,0.18,0.19,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%