NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	98		Excitement	7.6 [271]		MVP	Toni Kukoc (CHI): +17.8%
Orlando Magic	106		Comeback	3.6 [153]		LVP	Bo Outlaw (ORL): -16.3%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Toni Kukoc	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.08	0.06	-0.03	18	63%	0.20	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ron Harper	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	0.01	0.04	13	67%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Joe Kleine	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Randy Brown	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.08	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Scott Burrell	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Rodman	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	4	55%	-0.00	2	-0.08	3	67%	-0.00
Michael Jordan	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.09,-0.13,-0.08,-0.12,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	17	53%	-0.05	3	-0.06	13	100%	0.12
Steve Kerr	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	4	0%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luc Longley	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.14	-0.02	-0.01	13	32%	-0.09	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Harper	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.07	0.10	0.00	6	75%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Price	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	12	65%	0.13	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.02	0.06	-0.00	8	56%	0.10	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Rony Seikaly	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.06	0.03	14	58%	0.08	2	-0.07	17	94%	0.12
Horace Grant	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	15	52%	0.01	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.00
Gerald Wilkins	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	9	45%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Brian Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	4	40%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Dan Schayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	6	40%	-0.05	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.02
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.07	-0.01	9	36%	-0.07	2	-0.09	4	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	27.3	15.6	24.0	2.5	41.6	136.8
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +16.2%

ORL +11.4%

ORL +15.0%

ORL +1.3%

ORL +6.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	ORL	NBA	CHI	ORL	NBA
this game	16.8	15.4	15.6	112.6	115.2	102.5
season	16.2	16.7		105.8	100.3
opponent	15.6	15.8		101.4	97.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.3	14.7	21.7	15.6	16.8
ORL	15.0	15.3	17.4	14.4	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Kerr	41	43	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.13	7	-15	22	16.5	17.0	-0.49	13.5	17.1	-3.59
Joe Kleine	11	10	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.06	0	-8	8	17.7	16.7	1.07	16.2	15.3	0.87
Scott Burrell	27	27	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.19	2	-10	12	15.5	17.4	-1.90	15.3	15.5	-0.13
Luc Longley	51	54	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.04	-7	-1	-6	18.0	15.1	2.82	16.1	14.5	1.62
Ron Harper	63	66	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.15	-1	-7	6	16.0	18.9	-2.93	16.3	13.2	3.11
Jud Buechler	11	12	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.17	-1	-7	6	14.2	17.2	-2.99	7.0	16.7	-9.69
Jason Caffey	11	11	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.25	1	-9	10	14.7	17.1	-2.36	13.4	15.7	-2.34
Toni Kukoc	71	76	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.05	-8	0	-8	17.2	14.9	2.27	15.7	14.2	1.50
Randy Brown	24	27	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.12	-10	2	-12	15.9	17.1	-1.21	15.9	15.2	0.66
Dennis Rodman	61	65	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.06	-13	5	-18	17.5	15.1	2.39	16.4	13.1	3.33
Michael Jordan	64	69	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.19	-10	2	-12	17.2	15.7	1.55	15.6	15.0	0.62

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Harper	50	48	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.31	11	-3	14	14.5	16.5	-1.98	15.5	18.4	-2.93
Rony Seikaly	78	74	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.28	9	-1	10	15.5	14.8	0.75	17.3	14.0	3.28
Bo Outlaw	84	79	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.23	9	-1	10	15.2	18.0	-2.82	17.1	14.2	2.80
Darrell Armstrong	38	39	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.29	-1	9	-10	14.3	16.2	-1.89	16.2	17.2	-1.02
Horace Grant	66	61	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.07	6	2	4	16.2	13.6	2.57	16.9	16.6	0.25
Mark Price	54	48	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.03	9	-1	10	16.2	14.3	1.89	17.2	16.2	1.02
Dan Schayes	20	20	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	3	2	16.3	15.2	1.18	16.0	17.0	-0.96
Brian Evans	25	25	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.14	-5	13	-18	14.0	15.9	-1.90	15.4	17.4	-1.95
Gerald Wilkins	45	41	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	-0.02	-3	11	-14	16.0	14.9	1.08	18.0	15.7	2.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.56,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.38,0.58,0.53,0.71,0.86,0.68,0.85,0.84,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 97, SAS 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.62,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.45,0.52,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.34,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.78,0.76,0.85,0.89,0.99,1	92.7%
DEN 110, TOR 114	0.5,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.45,0.32,0.38,0.31,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.38,0.18,0.3,0.33,0.47,0.59,0.75,0.87,0.95,0.95,0.96,1,1	92.1%
DEN 92, POR 98	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.66,0.6,0.7,0.78,0.77,0.92,1	92.1%