NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	103		Excitement	6.7 [431]		MVP	Tracy Murray (WAS): +21.8%
Washington Wizards	114		Comeback	2.4 [663]		LVP	Calbert Cheaney (WAS): -10.6%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephon Marbury	0.11	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	20	60%	0.14	2	-0.03	5	80%	-0.01
Chris Carr	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	7	78%	0.16	3	-0.10	4	50%	-0.04
Cherokee Parks	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	-0.03	0.02	11	73%	0.08	2	-0.06	11	91%	0.01
Reggie Jordan	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Wheat	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	7	57%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Stanley Roberts	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.02	-0.09	-0.01	14	62%	0.01	4	-0.10	6	50%	-0.08
Terry Porter	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	5	20%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	8	28%	-0.06	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.12	0.09	-0.01	12	80%	0.22	2	-0.00	1	100%	0.01
Chris Webber	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.12	0.09	0.01	19	69%	0.25	2	-0.06	10	90%	0.03
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	15	65%	0.07	2	-0.05	10	80%	-0.00
Terry Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.03	1	75%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	100%	-0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.02	-0.02	11	59%	0.07	5	-0.09	7	100%	0.05
Harvey Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ledell Eackles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	13	30%	-0.09	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	1.7	24.3	14.8	28.2	2.4	35.3	129.0
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +9.1%

WAS +31.3%

MIN -5.8%

WAS +18.0%

MIN -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	WAS	NBA	MIN	WAS	NBA
this game	15.0	15.0	15.6	108.4	117.5	102.5
season	14.8	15.1		105.3	102.8
opponent	15.6	15.7		102.2	104.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.4	19.2	13.7	13.5	15.0
WAS	15.6	15.1	17.7	12.2	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stanley Roberts	32	32	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.00	4	-15	19	13.7	15.7	-2.06	17.3	13.8	3.44
Cherokee Parks	8	7	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-13	15	15.9	14.9	0.93	16.1	14.9	1.25
Reggie Jordan	0	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-9	7	0.0	15.0	-15.02	1.0	15.1	-14.13
Terry Porter	28	28	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.03	-1	-10	9	15.4	14.9	0.48	16.6	14.3	2.34
DeJuan Wheat	15	14	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-10	9	15.6	14.9	0.69	16.6	14.7	1.94
Sam Mitchell	61	64	-0.28	-0.23	-0.05	0.02	-10	-1	-9	15.6	14.0	1.64	14.2	16.5	-2.28
Stephon Marbury	77	80	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.11	-9	-2	-7	14.8	16.1	-1.28	14.6	16.6	-1.95
Kevin Garnett	70	74	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.06	-11	0	-11	14.5	16.4	-1.82	14.9	15.2	-0.31
Chris Carr	72	72	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.21	-6	-5	-1	14.8	15.6	-0.78	14.7	15.9	-1.21
Tom Gugliotta	77	77	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.20	-10	-1	-9	15.0	15.0	0.03	14.4	17.2	-2.80
Tom Hammonds	35	36	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.27	-11	0	-11	16.4	14.2	2.18	15.3	14.8	0.52

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juwan Howard	85	84	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.10	15	-4	19	14.7	16.7	-2.02	15.2	13.7	1.46
Chris Webber	90	87	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.22	9	2	7	15.3	11.4	3.83	15.3	12.2	3.03
Rod Strickland	77	76	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.17	8	3	5	16.2	10.4	5.77	15.4	13.6	1.80
Tracy Murray	56	53	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.01	10	1	9	13.4	17.1	-3.71	15.6	14.3	1.28
Calbert Cheaney	72	70	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.07	7	4	3	14.9	15.1	-0.14	14.6	16.3	-1.71
Terry Davis	44	46	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.14	3	8	-5	17.2	13.1	4.07	14.5	15.5	-0.93
Ledell Eackles	25	25	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.11	4	7	-3	15.1	14.9	0.14	16.3	14.6	1.71
Chris Whitney	20	19	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.01	3	8	-5	10.4	16.2	-5.77	13.6	15.4	-1.80
Ben Wallace	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	11	-11	6.2	15.4	-9.10	7.5	15.4	-7.85
Darvin Ham	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	11	-11	9.0	15.1	-6.11	8.5	15.2	-6.66
Harvey Grant	10	9	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.08	-4	15	-19	18.3	14.6	3.70	14.9	15.0	-0.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.5,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.57,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.71,0.87,0.97,0.93,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 97, POR 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.29,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.43,0.45,0.52,0.61,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.64,0.76,0.86,0.95,1,1,1,1	93.6%
UTA 97, PHI 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.57,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.82,0.86,0.93,0.98,0.99,1	93.4%
MIN 90, TOR 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.52,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.53,0.69,0.81,0.87,0.93,0.99,1,1,1	93.3%