NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	102		Excitement	4.1 [955]		MVP	Sean Elliott (SAS): +11.8%
Dallas Mavericks	91		Comeback	1.0 [1128]		LVP	Hubert Davis (DAL): -8.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sean Elliott	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.12	0.14	-0.00	0.02	13	73%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chuck Person	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.05	0.00	6	67%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0.08	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.03	-0.02	12	69%	0.12	3	-0.04	8	75%	-0.01
Cory Alexander	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.00	-0.04	11	77%	0.12	5	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.02	0.05	-0.04	8	53%	0.06	2	0.01	1	100%	0.01
Malik Rose	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	58%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Carl Herrera	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.09	0.00	-0.09	9	46%	0.01	3	-0.01	6	17%	-0.01
Will Perdue	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.09	-0.00	-0.05	3	10%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.01
Avery Johnson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	-0.03	7	43%	0.00	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.04	-0.01	15	57%	0.10	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
A.C. Green	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.05	6	43%	0.01	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Ollie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	17	47%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khalid Reeves	0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	0.03	10	55%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.08	-0.00	-0.06	8	26%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.01
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.05	0.01	11	59%	-0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Scott	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.02	-0.03	0.06	12	62%	-0.03	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	7	31%	-0.07	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	38.8	0.3	12.7	12.6	27.2	1.8	30.3	123.8
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +54.4%

DAL -4.5%

SAS +5.7%

DAL -10.5%

SAS +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	13.4	17.5	15.6	108.5	97.8	102.5
season	15.9	15.8		100.9	98.3
opponent	15.5	15.9		104.6	97.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	11.6	9.2	17.5	15.3	13.4
DAL	17.2	21.2	14.5	16.7	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Robinson	76	75	0.58	-0.08	0.65	-0.10	23	-12	35	13.3	13.4	-0.05	14.4	30.3	-15.88
Avery Johnson	82	81	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.06	17	-6	23	13.5	12.3	1.17	18.8	8.2	10.59
Sean Elliott	73	71	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.25	10	1	9	13.8	11.9	1.92	13.7	29.8	-16.11
Cory Alexander	58	59	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.02	14	-3	17	12.8	14.2	-1.32	11.9	27.1	-15.25
Chuck Person	44	45	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.14	19	-8	27	11.5	14.9	-3.39	21.1	14.1	6.96
Tim Duncan	45	45	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.09	8	3	5	14.6	12.2	2.35	15.3	19.5	-4.23
Carl Herrera	2	2	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	12	-13	27.0	13.1	13.95	205.0	13.4	191.65
Jaren Jackson	40	39	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.26	-12	23	-35	13.4	13.3	0.04	23.2	13.3	9.87
Will Perdue	31	30	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.11	-9	20	-29	12.5	13.8	-1.29	24.7	14.0	10.72
Malik Rose	19	18	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	0.21	-14	25	-39	13.8	13.2	0.62	8.6	19.6	-11.06

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Ollie	4	3	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.11	-5	-6	1	0.0	18.3	-18.26	0.3	13.8	-13.45
Samaki Walker	38	40	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.31	9	-20	29	24.4	12.7	11.70	14.8	12.3	2.52
Erick Strickland	55	57	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.29	3	-14	17	19.0	15.3	3.74	12.5	14.6	-2.05
Khalid Reeves	34	34	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.01	-9	-2	-7	17.1	17.7	-0.65	15.9	11.9	3.92
Dennis Scott	74	76	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.21	-4	-7	3	20.2	6.9	13.29	14.8	7.2	7.58
Shawn Bradley	76	78	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.24	-3	-8	5	17.9	15.6	2.31	13.6	12.1	1.48
Michael Finley	78	79	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.11	-15	4	-19	13.4	38.6	-25.19	12.6	17.5	-4.98
Hubert Davis	36	35	-0.34	-0.15	-0.19	-0.20	-5	-6	1	20.2	15.7	4.53	11.8	14.3	-2.52
A.C. Green	70	68	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	0.14	-26	15	-41	13.5	29.6	-16.12	12.3	16.0	-3.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.19,0.18,0.34,0.29,0.23,0.17,0.2,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.06,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 88, BOS 79	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.25,0.24,0.2,0.16,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.17,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.22,0.43,0.37,0.32,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.08,0.01,0,0,0	94.7%
OKC 104, MIL 96	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.29,0.27,0.21,0.23,0.21,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.2,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.1%
DEN 115, LAL 99	0.5,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.4,0.5,0.4,0.41,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.29,0.24,0.18,0.14,0.17,0.13,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.38,0.29,0.38,0.31,0.27,0.07,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.0%