NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	71		Excitement	5.8 [628]		MVP	Steven Smith (ATL): +9.2%
Atlanta Hawks	82		Comeback	2.1 [572]		LVP	Grant Hill (DET): -24.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron McKie	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	8	44%	0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Jerome Williams	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Mahorn	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Sealy	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	11	52%	0.03	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.03
Theo Ratliff	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Long	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	4	60%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Bison Dele	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.01	-0.06	0.02	18	43%	-0.09	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Lindsey Hunter	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	11	42%	-0.03	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Grant Hill	-0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.17	-0.09	-0.02	20	31%	-0.21	2	-0.03	5	80%	-0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steven Smith	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	0.01	19	61%	0.16	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.02
Chucky Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.02	6	67%	0.09	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	6	69%	0.06	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	0.03	11	59%	0.01	1	-0.02	10	60%	-0.05
Donald Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ed Gray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Corbin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.02	11	36%	0.00	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.03	-0.03	11	37%	-0.04	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.4	23.6	15.8	32.3	2.4	31.2	131.5
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +48.8%

DET -3.1%

ATL +22.1%

DET -23.7%

ATL +6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ATL	NBA	DET	ATL	NBA
this game	15.4	18.0	15.6	83.5	94.3	102.5
season	15.9	16.1		102.8	105.3
opponent	16.0	15.9		101.5	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.6	15.0	18.9	12.3	15.4
ATL	16.4	18.6	17.1	19.8	18.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Theo Ratliff	23	22	0.25	-0.75	0.99	-0.02	9	-20	29	16.7	14.9	1.80	19.7	17.5	2.27
Jerome Williams	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-10	9	2.5	15.7	-13.23	24.5	17.9	6.62
Rick Mahorn	14	12	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-7	3	17.4	15.0	2.40	21.8	17.4	4.41
Aaron McKie	49	48	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.03	-3	-8	5	14.3	17.0	-2.69	18.3	17.7	0.67
Grant Long	49	51	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.07	-12	1	-13	17.1	13.2	3.91	17.8	18.3	-0.46
Bison Dele	70	73	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.28	-5	-6	1	15.2	16.4	-1.19	17.2	22.2	-4.98
Malik Sealy	67	71	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.20	-9	-2	-7	14.5	18.9	-4.47	17.8	19.1	-1.26
Lindsey Hunter	73	76	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.19	-13	2	-15	15.2	16.6	-1.35	17.8	19.9	-2.15
Grant Hill	78	80	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.17	-17	6	-23	15.9	10.6	5.29	18.0	18.7	-0.74

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mookie Blaylock	81	79	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.12	19	-8	27	17.8	21.8	-4.08	15.6	13.5	2.07
Steven Smith	83	80	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.18	11	0	11	17.8	22.5	-4.68	15.2	19.6	-4.44
Dikembe Mutombo	75	73	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.09	14	-3	17	17.4	22.0	-4.60	15.6	14.6	0.98
Tyrone Corbin	46	46	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.05	10	1	9	16.9	19.3	-2.33	16.2	14.5	1.78
Christian Laettner	55	54	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.16	5	6	-1	18.4	17.4	0.94	17.0	12.7	4.27
Chucky Brown	41	39	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.10	7	4	3	19.0	17.2	1.87	13.6	17.0	-3.44
Alan Henderson	43	41	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.15	0	11	-11	19.1	17.0	2.05	13.8	16.9	-3.13
Donald Whiteside	3	4	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	15	-19	19.3	18.0	1.35	11.7	15.6	-3.85
Ed Gray	10	11	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.03	-6	17	-23	22.4	17.5	4.93	15.9	15.4	0.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.62,0.64,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.68,0.63,0.77,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.75,0.63,0.79,0.84,0.88,0.94,0.92,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 73, NOH 89	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.59,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.83,0.89,0.93,1,1,1	93.9%
CHA 86, NOK 103	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.74,0.65,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.97,1,1,1,1	93.8%
ORL 100, SAS 112	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.36,0.36,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.51,0.39,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.85,0.7,0.7,0.83,0.68,0.87,0.88,0.78,0.86,0.99,0.99,1,1	93.7%