NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Bullets	97		Excitement	8.6 [162]		MVP	Ricky Pierce (CHH): +45.0%
Charlotte Hornets	99		Comeback	19.1 [67]		LVP	Rod Strickland (WAS): -25.0%

Washington Bullets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy Murray	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.05	-0.00	7	64%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.02	0.00	14	59%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Harvey Grant	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.05	0.00	5	60%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.05	-0.00	11	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.03
Tim Legler	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gheorghe Muresan	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	0.01	8	28%	-0.11	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Webber	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.04,-0.15	0.03	-0.17	0.02	20	57%	-0.01	2	-0.14	4	50%	-0.02
Rod Strickland	-0.25	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.25	-0.09	-0.16	-0.01	14	50%	-0.12	5	-0.13	4	100%	0.02

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ricky Pierce	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.45	0.45	0.08	0.37	-0.00	15	62%	0.47	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Vlade Divac	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	14	66%	0.12	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Matt Geiger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.02	3	75%	0.06	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.02
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	0.00	11	52%	0.07	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Tony Smith	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Donald Royal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	3	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	13	60%	0.14	4	-0.21	4	100%	0.02
Rafael Addison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	2	0%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Glen Rice	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.26,-0.23,-0.23,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.07	0.02	14	44%	-0.11	3	-0.07	8	87%	0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	1.6	23.5	15.8	22.3	2.7	34.5	124.3
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +33.1%

CHH +12.8%

WAS -1.3%

WAS -3.0%

CHH +8.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	CHH	NBA	WAS	CHH	NBA
this game	14.6	17.2	15.6	106.6	110.0	104.4
season	14.8	15.7		104.3	108.0
opponent	16.0	15.8		106.5	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	14.8	12.8	15.0	16.5	14.6
CHH	15.9	14.9	17.8	21.4	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Bullets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Whitney	24	23	0.45	-0.95	1.41	0.07	13	-15	28	12.1	15.5	-3.44	18.5	16.8	1.69
Tracy Murray	40	38	0.42	-0.92	1.35	0.19	8	-10	18	13.1	15.8	-2.75	17.9	16.7	1.16
Tim Legler	30	27	0.41	-0.91	1.33	0.06	12	-14	26	11.9	16.0	-4.05	19.0	16.5	2.49
Gheorghe Muresan	36	34	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.01	-7	5	-12	15.0	14.3	0.68	15.1	18.5	-3.43
Chris Webber	79	79	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.49	4	-6	10	14.5	15.3	-0.83	17.7	14.1	3.57
Harvey Grant	35	36	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.47	-7	5	-12	16.1	13.7	2.48	18.6	16.3	2.27
Juwan Howard	83	83	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.57	-4	2	-6	14.6	14.4	0.26	16.8	22.4	-5.65
Calbert Cheaney	61	63	-0.91	0.41	-1.33	-0.50	-14	12	-26	16.0	11.9	4.05	16.5	19.0	-2.49
Rod Strickland	67	67	-0.95	0.45	-1.41	-0.51	-15	13	-28	15.5	12.1	3.44	16.8	18.5	-1.69

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Mason	78	78	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.55	8	-6	14	16.5	22.1	-5.61	15.2	11.2	4.04
Glen Rice	82	82	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.49	7	-5	12	16.7	23.0	-6.34	15.0	10.7	4.38
Tony Delk	56	58	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.45	1	1	0	17.2	17.3	-0.07	14.0	15.7	-1.70
Ricky Pierce	76	76	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.38	-1	3	-4	17.2	17.1	0.09	15.0	12.7	2.25
Matt Geiger	32	34	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.24	2	0	2	19.3	16.1	3.29	14.4	14.8	-0.37
Tony Smith	34	33	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.01	1	1	0	17.3	17.2	0.07	15.7	14.0	1.70
Donald Royal	19	20	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.08	-3	5	-8	18.8	16.8	2.05	11.4	15.5	-4.06
Malik Rose	9	9	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.12	-5	7	-12	22.6	16.6	5.93	10.7	15.0	-4.38
Rafael Addison	3	4	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.08	1	1	0	22.0	17.1	4.94	14.5	14.6	-0.12
Vlade Divac	61	61	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	-0.02	-1	3	-4	16.3	19.2	-2.93	14.6	14.7	-0.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.44,0.35,0.41,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.5,0.31,0.4,0.28,0.15,0.17,0.12,0.06,0.19,0.21,0.43,0.16,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 97, SEA 98	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.32,0.22,0.19,0.13,0.19,0.15,0.23,0.08,1	91.5%
BOS 107, DAL 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.31,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.26,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.22,0.24,0.28,1	90.6%
MIN 86, BOS 87	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.69,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.23,0.18,0.29,0.18,0.1,0.15,0.09,0.15,1	90.5%