NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	113		Excitement	8.2 [209]		MVP	Dale Ellis (DEN): +24.9%
Houston Rockets	109		Comeback	4.4 [190]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DEN): -15.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dale Ellis	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.16	0.09	-0.00	12	80%	0.25	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.04
LaPhonso Ellis	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.21	0.03	0.17	-0.00	15	64%	0.29	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.06
Ricky Pierce	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.17,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.04	0.02	18	66%	0.16	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Ervin Johnson	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.00	5	92%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Kenny Smith	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.06	-0.00	9	44%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brooks Thompson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07	-0.10	0.03	-0.01	10	40%	0.06	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	0.00	13	40%	-0.06	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.02

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hakeem Olajuwon	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.17,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.27,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.18	0.18	0.16	0.03	0.01	40	60%	0.24	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mack	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	-0.04	0.01	13	58%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Maloney	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.05,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	0.00	9	56%	0.10	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bullard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.04	-0.02	8	39%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	12	41%	-0.07	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.06
Mario Elie	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	8	50%	-0.00	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.5	21.3	15.7	22.1	1.8	35.2	121.7
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +62.1%

DEN +3.1%

HOU -8.6%

HOU -19.1%

DEN +12.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	14.7	15.0	15.6	115.3	113.5	104.4
season	15.2	15.5		102.3	107.2
opponent	15.4	15.3		103.0	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.5	15.9	14.9	14.6	14.7
HOU	14.8	15.4	15.1	14.8	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaPhonso Ellis	75	75	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.52	7	-3	10	14.8	14.4	0.33	15.2	14.5	0.68
Ervin Johnson	70	69	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.47	8	-4	12	14.7	14.6	0.06	15.4	14.1	1.30
Dale Ellis	64	62	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.36	11	-7	18	14.5	15.1	-0.62	15.3	14.6	0.70
Ricky Pierce	62	63	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.32	11	-7	18	14.7	14.6	0.11	15.7	13.8	1.86
Mark Jackson	83	79	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.46	1	3	-2	14.8	13.8	1.04	15.1	14.4	0.73
Brooks Thompson	14	13	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.00	1	3	-2	14.9	14.7	0.20	13.6	15.2	-1.61
Darvin Ham	4	3	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	-0.08	-2	6	-8	9.2	14.9	-5.66	14.7	15.0	-0.35
Kenny Smith	37	37	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.01	-5	9	-14	14.2	15.0	-0.79	14.1	15.6	-1.42
Antonio McDyess	58	58	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.05	-5	9	-14	15.4	13.6	1.87	15.0	15.0	0.06
Tom Hammonds	23	21	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.08	-7	11	-18	14.0	14.9	-0.89	12.5	15.7	-3.18

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brent Price	31	32	0.25	-0.75	1.00	0.07	6	-10	16	14.0	15.5	-1.54	14.5	14.8	-0.32
Othella Harrington	39	38	0.15	-0.65	0.81	0.21	-2	-2	0	14.2	15.5	-1.31	13.2	15.6	-2.36
Charles Jones	1	2	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-4	4	18.0	15.0	3.02	7.5	14.8	-7.33
Matt Bullard	15	15	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-5	6	13.3	15.3	-1.99	12.5	15.1	-2.62
Matt Maloney	55	53	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.14	-1	-3	2	15.1	15.0	0.10	15.0	14.3	0.77
Randy Livingston	41	45	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.24	-3	-1	-2	15.0	15.1	-0.10	14.3	15.0	-0.77
Hakeem Olajuwon	84	85	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.43	-1	-3	2	15.1	14.5	0.58	15.4	9.7	5.75
Mario Elie	81	84	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.38	-5	1	-6	15.3	13.3	1.99	14.9	13.1	1.80
Sam Mack	69	70	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.50	-6	2	-8	15.3	14.1	1.20	14.6	15.0	-0.39
Kevin Willis	64	66	-0.76	0.26	-1.01	-0.49	-9	5	-14	15.5	14.1	1.42	15.2	13.7	1.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.6,0.38,0.21,0.1,0.1,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 121, ORL 113	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.26,0.36,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.22,0.19,0.24,0.38,0.52,0.62,0.48,0.37,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.64,0.66,0.54,0.32,0.15,0.1,0.01,0	92.4%
LAC 100, POR 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.3,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.37,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.27,0.29,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.52,0.5,0.38,0.6,0.67,0.58,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.46,0.28,0.1,0.05,0	92.0%
PHI 92, NYK 90	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.28,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.29,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.71,0.81,0.86,0.66,0.53,0.47,0.28,0.23,0.02,0	91.7%