NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	105		Excitement	6.3 [521]		MVP	Tracy Murray (WAS): +7.5%
Washington Bullets	113		Comeback	1.9 [725]		LVP	Juwan Howard (WAS): -32.2%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Grayer	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	5	73%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Mitch Richmond	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.10	0.03	0.10	26	64%	0.13	4	-0.10	7	100%	0.04
Michael Smith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	8	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Gamble	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Hurley	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	2	17%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Corliss Williamson	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	21	43%	-0.05	2	-0.08	5	80%	0.00
Olden Polynice	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15	-0.07	-0.07	0.01	13	55%	-0.01	5	-0.13	3	67%	-0.00
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	-0.15	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.03	0.01	10	30%	-0.08	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Washington Bullets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.00	-0.01	6	71%	0.08	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.02	0.02	13	61%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Webber	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	0.01	0.05	18	71%	0.16	3	-0.09	2	0%	-0.04
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	13	62%	0.09	3	-0.06	8	87%	0.02
Harvey Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gheorghe Muresan	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	9	55%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	3	12%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	22%	-0.09	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.3,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	-0.32	-0.15	-0.16	0.02	18	43%	-0.19	4	-0.13	10	80%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	29.2	15.7	21.2	1.8	38.0	131.6
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +15.6%

WAS +4.1%

WAS +18.6%

WAS +10.9%

WAS +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	WAS	NBA	SAC	WAS	NBA
this game	16.1	13.6	15.6	108.2	116.5	104.4
season	15.4	14.8		102.4	104.3
opponent	15.8	15.4		103.3	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	16.7	14.6	17.2	16.0	16.1
WAS	13.9	13.7	12.2	14.7	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Smith	61	60	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.22	11	-19	30	16.3	15.8	0.43	15.0	11.3	3.75
Olden Polynice	75	74	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.15	3	-11	14	16.5	14.6	1.90	13.9	12.7	1.17
Bobby Hurley	30	32	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.13	0	-8	8	16.3	16.0	0.24	14.8	13.0	1.83
Jeff Grayer	26	26	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.22	3	-11	14	15.8	16.2	-0.35	13.4	13.7	-0.28
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	56	54	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.04	-9	1	-10	15.4	17.0	-1.55	12.8	14.6	-1.87
Kevin Gamble	41	41	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.03	-13	5	-18	16.0	16.2	-0.22	13.5	13.6	-0.09
Mitch Richmond	89	89	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.33	-4	-4	0	15.5	22.5	-6.97	13.5	15.0	-1.54
Corliss Williamson	73	73	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.25	-9	1	-10	16.5	15.0	1.52	13.0	15.2	-2.21
Duane Causwell	10	11	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.04	-17	9	-26	15.9	16.1	-0.23	12.8	13.7	-0.87

Washington Bullets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Webber	85	85	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.28	8	0	8	13.7	12.7	0.96	16.0	16.7	-0.64
Rod Strickland	75	75	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.28	6	2	4	13.1	15.4	-2.30	16.1	16.2	-0.10
Tracy Murray	42	41	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.33	4	4	0	14.6	12.8	1.78	15.8	16.3	-0.47
Jaren Jackson	18	19	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.09	11	-3	14	13.9	13.5	0.44	16.2	16.1	0.07
Juwan Howard	85	85	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.16	2	6	-4	13.1	17.3	-4.27	16.5	13.2	3.26
Harvey Grant	38	38	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.00	6	2	4	11.8	14.7	-2.91	16.4	15.9	0.48
Gheorghe Muresan	41	42	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	4	0	15.0	12.5	2.53	15.5	16.6	-1.15
Calbert Cheaney	79	78	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.17	-3	11	-14	13.5	13.9	-0.44	16.1	16.2	-0.07
Chris Whitney	22	22	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	6	-4	15.4	13.1	2.30	16.2	16.1	0.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.36,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.5,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.44,0.62,0.67,0.77,0.86,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 68, MIN 81	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.67,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.79,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%
CHH 84, CHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.43,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.88,0.9,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,1	94.0%
HOU 73, PHI 83	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.65,0.65,0.73,0.67,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.6,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.92,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.5%