NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Bullets	88		Excitement	8.0 [237]		MVP	Dan Schayes (ORL): +4.2%
Orlando Magic	93		Comeback	2.0 [694]		LVP	Chris Webber (WAS): -34.6%

Washington Bullets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Calbert Cheaney	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	7	57%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gheorghe Muresan	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.03	0.01	5	83%	0.06	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Tracy Murray	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	9	50%	0.05	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.03
Chris Whitney	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	1	75%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Rod Strickland	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.06	0.00	19	51%	-0.02	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.03
Jaren Jackson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.05	-0.02	18	53%	0.04	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Harvey Grant	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.06	-0.09	0.00	4	0%	-0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	-0.35	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.24,-0.26,-0.26,-0.21,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.35,-0.4,-0.4,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35	-0.17	-0.15	0.03	16	44%	-0.11	7	-0.24	4	25%	-0.11

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Schayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,0.04	0.04	-0.04	0.09	0.01	19	50%	0.18	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.01	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.03
Rony Seikaly	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	15	59%	0.04	3	-0.09	14	57%	-0.06
Nick Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	0.00	12	42%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Dennis Scott	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	13	39%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Gerald Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	4	0%	-0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derek Strong	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	11	48%	-0.05	3	-0.10	5	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	20.6	16.7	26.8	2.5	38.4	132.5
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS -1.7%

ORL +29.1%

ORL +15.8%

ORL +3.0%

ORL +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	ORL	NBA	WAS	ORL	NBA
this game	13.4	17.9	15.6	95.7	101.1	104.4
season	14.8	16.4		104.3	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.8		103.5	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	13.9	13.3	14.5	12.0	13.4
ORL	16.7	17.2	18.3	19.6	17.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Bullets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gheorghe Muresan	40	42	0.23	-0.73	0.97	-0.15	13	-18	31	10.6	15.5	-4.87	20.1	16.1	3.99
Chris Whitney	22	22	0.22	-0.72	0.93	0.04	6	-11	17	11.2	14.1	-2.86	20.2	17.2	3.00
Tracy Murray	42	42	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.16	10	-15	25	12.1	14.5	-2.45	17.9	17.9	-0.08
Calbert Cheaney	50	52	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-6	7	12.8	14.2	-1.41	18.5	17.1	1.38
Jaren Jackson	42	40	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.32	-6	1	-7	14.2	12.8	1.41	17.1	18.5	-1.38
Juwan Howard	80	78	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.32	-6	1	-7	13.7	11.3	2.38	17.9	18.0	-0.12
Harvey Grant	37	37	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.09	-16	11	-27	16.2	11.5	4.62	16.6	18.8	-2.23
Rod Strickland	70	70	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.39	-11	6	-17	14.1	11.2	2.86	17.2	20.2	-3.00
Chris Webber	77	77	-0.81	0.31	-1.12	-0.34	-16	11	-27	13.9	10.8	3.11	17.4	20.5	-3.06

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Strong	81	81	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.29	16	-11	27	17.5	20.5	-3.00	13.7	11.0	2.73
Anfernee Hardaway	72	73	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.36	10	-5	15	17.2	20.3	-3.13	14.0	11.2	2.83
Dennis Scott	72	72	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.20	9	-4	13	17.9	18.0	-0.19	14.1	11.0	3.07
Nick Anderson	69	67	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.12	7	-2	9	18.0	17.7	0.33	12.9	14.6	-1.70
Dan Schayes	23	22	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.05	7	-2	9	18.5	17.7	0.83	13.2	13.5	-0.23
Rony Seikaly	69	70	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.30	-2	7	-9	17.7	18.5	-0.83	13.5	13.2	0.23
Brian Shaw	37	38	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.40	-11	16	-27	19.4	16.9	2.47	11.9	14.4	-2.48
Gerald Wilkins	37	37	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.04	-11	16	-27	18.5	17.5	0.93	12.6	14.0	-1.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.44,0.34,0.41,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.7,0.61,0.59,0.68,0.72,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.59,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.61,0.76,0.89,0.85,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 77, MIN 83	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.52,0.51,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.45,0.53,0.76,0.79,0.85,0.96,1	92.4%
PHX 85, POR 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.68,0.7,0.62,0.67,0.52,0.42,0.53,0.58,0.67,0.68,0.84,0.99,1,1	92.4%
ORL 96, BKN 104	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.41,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.76,0.63,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.46,0.67,0.8,0.93,0.98,1,1	91.8%