NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	99		Excitement	8.0 [234]		MVP	George McCloud (DAL): +32.1%
Dallas Mavericks	104		Comeback	4.6 [342]		LVP	Mark Jackson (DEN): -24.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaPhonso Ellis	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.15	0.08	0.06	-0.01	19	62%	0.20	1	-0.04	7	71%	0.01
Dale Ellis	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.03	0.07	-0.04	0.01	13	64%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.02
Brooks Thompson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	83%	0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ricky Pierce	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.09	-0.03	10	60%	-0.02	1	-0.03	10	90%	0.04
Bryant Stith	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	0.02	14	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ervin Johnson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.16,-0.14,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	4	50%	0.03	3	-0.11	6	83%	0.06
Tom Hammonds	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	0.00	6	31%	-0.12	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.02
Mark Jackson	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.16	-0.09	-0.00	7	14%	-0.11	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.29,0.32	0.32	0.13	0.18	-0.01	9	81%	0.32	0	0.00	8	87%	0.06
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,-0.01,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	0.00	12	62%	0.11	1	-0.04	10	70%	-0.06
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.02	5	60%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	9	67%	0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Derek Harper	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	11	54%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Oliver Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.05
A.C. Green	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.03
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	8	64%	0.06	4	-0.12	6	100%	0.03
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	7	36%	-0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.7	27.1	15.8	21.4	2.4	41.4	133.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +85.7%

DEN -14.7%

DEN -15.8%

DEN -1.8%

DEN -3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	DAL	NBA	DEN	DAL	NBA
this game	16.5	14.8	15.6	107.6	113.0	104.4
season	15.2	15.9		102.3	99.1
opponent	15.7	15.3		105.5	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.8	15.0	17.3	17.7	16.5
DAL	18.5	14.3	14.0	13.0	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dale Ellis	82	81	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.24	4	-9	13	16.1	19.5	-3.40	15.1	13.2	1.88
Darvin Ham	23	23	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.05	-3	-2	-1	16.3	16.5	-0.28	14.5	14.9	-0.42
LaPhonso Ellis	69	69	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.17	0	-5	5	16.0	17.8	-1.81	15.2	13.8	1.35
Brooks Thompson	14	13	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.06	-4	-1	-3	17.4	16.3	1.05	14.4	14.9	-0.53
Ervin Johnson	40	41	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.16	-2	-3	1	17.1	15.9	1.21	15.8	14.0	1.79
Mark Jackson	78	79	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.29	-1	-4	3	16.3	17.4	-1.05	14.9	14.4	0.53
Bryant Stith	60	61	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.18	-6	1	-7	16.1	17.1	-0.96	15.2	14.2	0.97
Tom Hammonds	56	55	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.31	-6	1	-7	16.7	16.2	0.49	14.0	16.0	-1.99
Ricky Pierce	38	38	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.30	-7	2	-9	17.7	15.6	2.16	13.5	15.8	-2.28

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Gatling	43	45	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.39	13	-8	21	14.0	15.5	-1.48	16.9	16.1	0.83
Michael Finley	50	50	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.47	7	-2	9	13.7	16.2	-2.58	16.1	16.9	-0.76
George McCloud	54	54	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.43	8	-3	11	13.6	16.6	-2.92	16.5	16.5	-0.01
Derek Harper	56	54	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.47	3	2	1	13.4	17.1	-3.78	15.9	17.3	-1.36
Eric Montross	64	64	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.25	10	-5	15	15.8	12.5	3.31	17.4	14.2	3.19
Sam Cassell	36	39	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.12	4	1	3	17.1	13.4	3.78	16.9	16.1	0.84
Jamal Mashburn	38	38	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.07	-3	8	-11	16.6	13.6	2.92	16.5	16.5	0.01
Oliver Miller	20	20	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.04	-7	12	-19	14.0	15.1	-1.07	14.5	17.0	-2.45
Jim Jackson	46	44	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	-0.10	-3	8	-11	15.0	14.7	0.37	16.2	16.7	-0.46
A.C. Green	53	52	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.01	-7	12	-19	15.5	13.9	1.63	16.4	16.5	-0.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.58,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.35,0.22,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.22,0.34,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.64,0.66,0.83,0.75,0.85,0.85,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 96, NYK 98	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.2,0.25,0.34,0.48,0.53,0.48,0.54,0.74,0.88,0.91,0.75,0.85,0.85,0.85,1	92.0%
MEM 93, POR 97	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.41,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.4,0.38,0.3,0.53,0.58,0.68,0.87,0.81,0.73,0.68,0.89,0.84,0.84,1	91.8%
SAC 83, MIN 92	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.3,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.34,0.53,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.81,0.94,0.99,1,1	91.6%