NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	97		Excitement	8.1 [220]		MVP	Terry Porter (MIN): +8.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	91		Comeback	2.8 [286]		LVP	Vin Baker (MIL): -45.7%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Porter	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0.08	0.02	0.05	-0.02	10	50%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Cherokee Parks	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.01	7	60%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
James Robinson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0.03	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	15	61%	0.13	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.06
Stojko Vrankovic	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	-0.03	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Chris Carr	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	4	25%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	6	64%	0.05	6	-0.17	10	80%	-0.00
Tom Gugliotta	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	24	45%	-0.06	3	-0.08	8	87%	0.04

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Lang	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.01	4	80%	0.08	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.02
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Sherman Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	8	37%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Elliot Perry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Armen Gilliam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	-0.01	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.18,-0.22,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	19	43%	-0.02	3	-0.11	4	100%	0.06
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.14,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2	-0.20	-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	17	40%	-0.17	2	-0.03	8	87%	-0.01
Vin Baker	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.28,-0.33,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.51,-0.46	-0.46	-0.17	-0.30	-0.01	23	42%	-0.23	4	-0.22	11	73%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.3	25.3	18.7	23.5	1.4	41.5	137.1
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +40.5%

MIN +13.4%

MIL -11.5%

MIN +13.5%

MIL -5.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	MIL	NBA	MIN	MIL	NBA
this game	14.5	16.0	15.6	102.1	96.8	104.4
season	15.5	16.0		103.3	103.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		106.0	105.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.0	15.8	14.7	13.4	14.5
MIL	13.7	16.2	17.3	17.1	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Mitchell	51	51	0.63	-0.12	0.75	0.39	8	-2	10	14.8	14.1	0.75	16.1	15.8	0.32
Terry Porter	51	50	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.33	9	-3	12	14.2	14.9	-0.69	16.7	15.2	1.48
James Robinson	27	26	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.25	10	-4	14	14.4	14.5	-0.17	17.2	15.5	1.66
Tom Gugliotta	89	88	0.54	-0.03	0.57	0.24	10	-4	14	14.1	20.5	-6.41	15.7	20.5	-4.82
Kevin Garnett	85	83	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.34	6	0	6	14.4	15.0	-0.56	16.3	13.6	2.66
Stephon Marbury	73	73	0.09	0.42	-0.33	0.09	0	6	-6	14.3	15.1	-0.78	15.5	17.8	-2.28
Cherokee Parks	46	46	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.05	-1	7	-8	14.7	14.3	0.31	17.1	14.9	2.23
Stojko Vrankovic	14	14	-0.08	0.59	-0.67	0.06	-5	11	-16	15.6	14.3	1.35	11.8	16.7	-4.94
Chris Carr	39	39	-0.21	0.72	-0.94	-0.01	-7	13	-20	15.3	13.9	1.42	15.3	16.5	-1.25

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Lang	45	44	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.08	4	-10	14	15.7	16.3	-0.58	14.7	14.3	0.39
Elliot Perry	30	29	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-5	4	15.2	16.4	-1.21	14.3	14.6	-0.32
Ray Allen	70	71	-0.04	-0.47	0.43	-0.18	5	-11	16	15.3	17.9	-2.59	14.4	14.7	-0.29
Chucky Brown	29	30	-0.23	-0.28	0.05	-0.23	0	-6	6	16.8	15.6	1.16	16.2	13.7	2.54
Vin Baker	88	88	-0.42	-0.09	-0.33	-0.39	-1	-5	4	15.8	18.3	-2.50	14.4	15.6	-1.16
Sherman Douglas	67	68	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.37	-4	-2	-2	16.0	16.1	-0.12	14.2	15.2	-0.96
Armen Gilliam	31	33	-0.49	-0.02	-0.47	-0.16	-11	5	-16	17.0	15.5	1.51	14.9	14.3	0.68
Johnny Newman	33	33	-0.49	-0.02	-0.47	-0.11	-13	7	-20	16.9	15.5	1.37	13.5	15.0	-1.45
Glenn Robinson	77	79	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.30	-9	3	-12	16.2	15.0	1.21	14.4	14.9	-0.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.67,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.62,0.52,0.7,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.58,0.57,0.41,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 92, MIA 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.69,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.66,0.63,0.72,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.35,0.22,0.25,0.16,0.04,0.04,0	92.5%
NYK 75, CLE 65	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.71,0.69,0.68,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.22,0.19,0.03,0.1,0.02,0	92.4%
LAL 115, TOR 107	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.4,0.28,0.31,0.21,0.07,0.04,0	92.3%