NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Bullets	96		Excitement	7.6 [311]		MVP	Jaren Jackson (WAS): +12.1%
Orlando Magic	92		Comeback	7.2 [85]		LVP	Anfernee Hardaway (ORL): -24.2%

Washington Bullets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaren Jackson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.02	-0.00	6	86%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Rod Strickland	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	10	69%	0.07	0	0.00	9	67%	-0.04
Chris Whitney	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.00	4	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harvey Grant	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	4	92%	0.09	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Calbert Cheaney	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03	-0.06	0.04	0.00	12	36%	-0.00	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Tracy Murray	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	7	36%	-0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09	-0.12	0.02	-0.01	16	45%	-0.01	3	-0.08	10	50%	-0.05
Juwan Howard	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09	-0.13	0.02	-0.01	12	57%	0.14	8	-0.24	4	100%	0.05
Ben Wallace	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	6	67%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Felton Spencer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nick Anderson	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	19	39%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	13	47%	0.00	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
David Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	4	78%	0.06	3	-0.14	1	100%	0.00
Gerald Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.09	-0.02	8	56%	0.00	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	6	29%	-0.04	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Donald Royal	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	10	50%	-0.03	3	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.15	-0.10	-0.00	22	36%	-0.22	1	-0.02	9	78%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	1.8	30.2	16.4	23.6	2.5	41.3	141.3
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +60.2%

WAS +12.9%

ORL -33.6%

WAS +9.1%

WAS +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	ORL	NBA	WAS	ORL	NBA
this game	14.5	17.3	15.6	105.5	102.2	104.4
season	14.8	16.4		104.3	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.8		103.5	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	14.8	16.7	13.9	12.8	14.5
ORL	15.8	17.6	18.0	17.9	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Bullets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Wallace	38	38	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.14	11	-7	18	12.6	15.8	-3.22	17.6	17.2	0.43
Rod Strickland	69	67	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.28	3	1	2	14.4	14.7	-0.29	17.6	16.7	0.86
Chris Webber	71	68	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.48	-4	8	-12	14.9	13.2	1.67	17.0	18.3	-1.24
Calbert Cheaney	60	60	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.21	5	-1	6	14.6	14.2	0.42	16.8	18.3	-1.45
Harvey Grant	64	62	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.24	3	1	2	14.6	14.4	0.19	17.3	17.5	-0.19
Chris Whitney	22	24	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.11	3	1	2	14.7	14.4	0.29	16.0	17.8	-1.82
Juwan Howard	73	74	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.15	1	3	-2	15.1	12.0	3.12	17.5	16.6	0.86
Tracy Murray	31	30	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.17	-1	5	-6	14.2	14.6	-0.42	18.3	16.8	1.45
Jaren Jackson	27	27	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.13	-1	5	-6	14.4	14.6	-0.19	18.1	17.0	1.11

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Felton Spencer	36	35	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.00	4	-8	12	18.0	16.9	1.06	14.6	14.5	0.11
Donald Royal	53	54	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.18	2	-6	8	17.6	17.0	0.61	15.4	13.2	2.26
Darrell Armstrong	9	9	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.13	-1	-3	2	17.4	17.3	0.12	14.0	14.6	-0.56
Nick Anderson	72	70	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.27	3	-7	10	16.9	19.0	-2.08	15.4	11.5	3.94
Horace Grant	72	73	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.24	-2	-2	0	16.9	19.1	-2.15	14.4	14.9	-0.55
Derek Strong	30	30	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.36	0	-4	4	19.0	16.5	2.55	15.8	13.9	1.93
Anfernee Hardaway	70	70	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.25	-4	0	-4	17.7	15.9	1.78	14.4	14.8	-0.33
Brian Shaw	23	27	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.17	-7	3	-10	15.4	18.0	-2.61	12.3	15.5	-3.19
David Vaughn	40	41	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.11	-9	5	-14	17.0	17.6	-0.56	14.7	14.4	0.32
Gerald Wilkins	45	46	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.22	-6	2	-8	17.4	17.3	0.09	12.7	16.4	-3.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.81,0.78,0.7,0.63,0.54,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.68,0.72,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.42,0.37,0.26,0.29,0.17,0.25,0.23,0.09,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 99, MIN 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.75,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.67,0.79,0.78,0.72,0.8,0.74,0.79,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.32,0.19,0.14,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	91.3%
WAS 85, CLE 81	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.81,0.76,0.72,0.67,0.72,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.44,0.47,0.31,0.28,0.2,0.36,0.23,0.16,0	91.2%
MEM 108, OKC 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.77,0.79,0.83,0.89,0.92,0.9,0.82,0.79,0.75,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.81,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.63,0.42,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.47,0.15,0.32,0.16,0	91.0%