NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	123		Excitement	6.2 [576]		MVP	De'Aaron Fox (SAC): +30.3%
Atlanta Hawks	115		Comeback	1.2 [953]		LVP	Zaccharie Risacher (ATL): -10.0%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
De'Aaron Fox	0.30	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.22,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.13	0.14	-0.03	16	82%	0.42	6	-0.12	6	83%	0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.15	0.13	0.04	0.01	16	64%	0.18	1	-0.03	10	80%	0.00
Keon Ellis	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.00	0.01	5	100%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Keegan Murray	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.01	12	56%	0.05	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Domantas Sabonis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	11	56%	0.07	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.02
Colby Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Monk	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	9	41%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Trey Lyles	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	7	31%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Huerter	-0.06	0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	13	38%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Garrison Mathews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.26	0.26	0.19	0.02	-0.04	15	77%	0.26	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.13	0.06	0.01	9	79%	0.18	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Onyeka Okongwu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	-0.00	0.01	5	79%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Keaton Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.10	-0.03	0.03	9	78%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Trae Young	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.07,0.12,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	21	51%	0.15	5	-0.16	7	86%	0.02
Larry Nance Jr.	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
David Roddy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	10	40%	-0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.06	0.01	10	54%	-0.00	3	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01
Zaccharie Risacher	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.00	-0.01	9	17%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	2.4	27.6	15.4	25.4	2.3	33.3	135.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.2	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +18.2%

SAC +8.5%

SAC +21.4%

SAC +0.1%

SAC +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	ATL	NBA	SAC	ATL	NBA
this game	12.8	14.8	14.4	117.1	110.6	113.1
season	14.3	13.2		115.1	113.0
opponent	14.5	14.6		114.4	114.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	12.0	12.7	13.5	13.0	12.8
ATL	15.1	14.0	14.8	15.2	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
De'Aaron Fox	83	81	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.14	21	-13	34	12.7	13.1	-0.41	14.8	14.5	0.36
DeMar DeRozan	84	83	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.19	10	-2	12	12.9	12.6	0.24	15.2	13.0	2.20
Keegan Murray	83	83	0.48	0.01	0.47	0.13	12	-4	16	13.3	11.0	2.29	14.6	15.4	-0.78
Domantas Sabonis	71	71	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.18	5	3	2	13.4	11.6	1.76	15.1	14.0	1.11
Trey Lyles	46	43	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.08	7	1	6	11.4	13.9	-2.52	14.3	15.1	-0.78
Malik Monk	65	65	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.06	4	4	0	11.7	14.5	-2.81	14.3	15.6	-1.33
Keon Ellis	42	43	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.20	-6	14	-20	13.1	12.6	0.48	13.8	15.4	-1.65
Kevin Huerter	50	51	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.29	-10	18	-28	14.0	11.8	2.20	15.5	14.0	1.47
Colby Jones	1	0	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	11	-14	1.0	12.9	-11.92	0.0	14.8	-14.76

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Larry Nance Jr.	18	18	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.01	-2	-6	4	14.4	14.8	-0.38	10.9	13.2	-2.25
David Roddy	62	63	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.29	7	-15	22	13.5	16.6	-3.08	12.6	13.2	-0.63
Onyeka Okongwu	44	42	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.06	-4	-4	0	13.0	16.0	-3.01	12.9	12.8	0.08
Garrison Mathews	62	63	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.29	3	-11	14	15.0	14.4	0.64	13.4	11.9	1.51
Jalen Johnson	75	75	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.23	-2	-6	4	15.2	13.6	1.63	13.7	10.6	3.09
Keaton Wallace	65	66	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.25	-2	-6	4	13.6	16.6	-3.01	12.8	12.8	-0.02
Clint Capela	60	63	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.21	-4	-4	0	16.0	13.0	3.01	12.8	12.9	-0.08
Trae Young	90	92	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.20	-11	3	-14	15.2	11.8	3.44	12.7	13.4	-0.66
Zaccharie Risacher	44	43	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	0.20	-25	17	-42	16.2	13.7	2.54	11.7	13.6	-1.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.3,0.31,0.3,0.35,0.32,0.24,0.16,0.19,0.22,0.24,0.25,0.31,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.2,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.12,0.41,0.28,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 107, MIA 97	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.24,0.16,0.19,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.14,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.13,0.29,0.27,0.15,0.04,0.01,0,0	93.8%
IND 101, PHI 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.22,0.21,0.16,0.24,0.25,0.27,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.15,0.26,0.19,0.22,0.1,0.07,0.1,0,0	93.6%
IND 110, WAS 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.29,0.23,0.28,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.2,0.25,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.26,0.2,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.11,0.12,0.26,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.09,0	93.5%